Saturday 21st September, 2013

A small profit on Friday with Tawhid winning and I hope you got the 3/1 yesterday evening.

A busy day on Saturday with selections form both Ayr and Newbury and hopefully we can continue our good month to date.

I think we will have a couple of winners as long as the going does not change dramatically.

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2.40 Ayr William Hill Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) (CLASS 2)


Sir Reginald 2 points win at Betfair odds or 14/1 generally and Colonel Mac 2 points win at Betfair odds or 11/1 Paddypower and Stan James

Race Analysis:

An Saighdur was under serious consideration here as he will handle the ground, however he may be out of his depth and after 40 runs may no longer be improving.

Harrison George has gone up a stone in the last three months virtue of two wins in a lower class.  I think that has left him too high in the handicap although he may run into a place as he handles the ground.

Chooseday gets in on a light enough weight here but his two wins have come in twenty races and both were on much better ground than here.  He would be a challenger if the ground really dried out.

Colonel Mac is the favourite but at double figure odds and he loves the ground and has run well in the Ayr Gold Cup in the last two years.  He likes the course and if getting a clear run can win here as his handicap mark is now four pounds lower than when fifth in last year’s Gold Cup.

Sir Reginald won for Cleeve at Doncaster last week and the key for him is cut in the ground.  he drops back from 7 furlongs here and the fact he can stay further than 6 furlongs is a plus on this going.  Hopefully he can win for us for the second time in the last 8 days!

2.55 Newbury Dubai Duty Free Handicap (CLASS 2)


Saxo Jack 2 points win at Betfair odds or 8/1 Skybet or Coral

Race Analysis:

Black Spirit is paying for winning a four runner Group 3 here last year and until he comes down the weights a bit I cannot see him winning.  He is a decent horse though and will be thereabouts at the finish.

Trade Commissioner in another one high in the weights and is becoming hard to win with, which is a shame as he is talented on his day.  I am not sure that he will handle this going either and may want a furlong or two further on good ground.

Viewpoint has been disappointing since winning a decent race at Goodwood and would need an improvement to win this.  He has no experience on this going so it is hard to tell if he will cope or not.

Saxo Jack does not have much experience but will cope with the going and I was impressed by his winning run last time at Dundalk.  I think he is improving with every race and can take this going away at the finish at a reasonable price.

3.30 Newbury Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) (CLASS 1)


Maarek 2 points win at Betfair odds or 6/1 William Hill and Coral

Race Analysis:

Kingsgate Native is the class horse in the race hence his high and clear rating; however his best form is all on good to firm going and he may struggle on the ground here.  I don’t think he is worth the risk at the likely tight odds.

Tickled Pink has not run well on soft going and also appears to be better of 6 furlongs rather than 5 furlongs of this race.  She seems a bit out of sorts and may need a break.

Angels Will Fall won nicely last weekend but this is a big step up in class and dropping back in trip with the weight increase may make this difficult in the latter stages.

Maarek is a horse we won money with last season but is definitely a horse which needs the right conditions of 5 furlongs and soft going.  He disappointed over 6 furlongs last time but that is to our benefit here as he will be much bigger odds than he should be.

3.50 Ayr William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)


Tropics 2 points win at Betfair odds or 15/1 William Hill and Baccarat 2 points win at 11/1 Willim Hill

Race Analysis:

Jack Dexter is a very warm favourite here and having already won at Group 3 level deserves his status.  This race is tough and most winners have run more recently than his 84 day break.  His weight also makes this tough and he may be vulnerable in the final furlong.

Duke of Firenze has been frustrating since showing promise in the early part of the season and may need a rest and a bit of rethinking from Sir Michael Stoute.

Regal Parade is still enthusiastic at nine but I think this race is beyond him although he may make the top five places at decent odds.  He is also now on a very dangerous weight for a decent horse.

Captain Ramius was under serious consideration here as he has won over 6 and 7 furlongs and on soft going.  He has also dropped back in the weights a bit and is under his last winning mark.  However at 7 years old younger legs are likely to go past him or he will get stranded in the first couple of furlongs and find it difficult to get a clear run.

Tropics is a horse that I think is on the up and will be a real force in sprints next season.  He can round off a decent year by winning here adn he has won at a higher grade plus can cope with a bug field which is key.  Expect him to make a move with a furlong to go and hold off the field in the last hundred yards.

Baccarat like Tropics is an improver and I think he has been laid out for this by Richard Fahey. He too has won a big field handicap and although not proven on soft his breeding suggests the ground should not be a problem.  He is drawn in the middle and can pick the side with the pace although I think that will be high drawn with Jack Dexter and Tropics out there.

Good luck and have a great weekend.