Cleeve members selections – Saturday 16th September

Hi everyone,
Unfortunately there was no continuation of our winning streak today with neither of our two selections troubling the judge.
Talaayeb looked to be going as well as anything 2 furlongs out, but by the furlong pole it was obvious she wasn't going to win and Oisin Murphy wasn't too hard on her coming home in 4th.
Then we had Montaly for whom the writing was on the wall even before the race started as he drifted out alarmingly to 8/1. And the market was right on the money as from 4 furlongs out he couldn't go with the leaders and trailed in a disappointing 7th... this is not his form.

So we go back into battle at Doncaster still 13 points  in front for the meeting, but it would be nice to close the meeting with another winning day.

Good luck,
The team at Cleeve

1.50 Doncaster 5½f (5f143y) William Hill Portland Handicap (Colts & Geldings) (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Captain Colby 1 point each way at 16/1 with Bet365 (5 Places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Eastern Impact – 193
2) Lancelot Du Lac – 186
3) Captain Colby – 182
4) Duke Of Firenze – 166

Race analysis:
Eastern Impact has won at Group 3 level and this is obviously much easier, but he has not been in great form this season. He has dropped nine pounds since the start of 2017, but has not won since October 2015 so may have place prospects at best.

Lancelot Du Lac won the Stewards Cup at Goodwood, which was a career best, but was disappointing last Sunday and may need a break. If he bounces back he will be dangerous here.

Duke Of Firenze was under consideration but he too has been on a losing run. He did run well in the Epsom Dash back in June but the rest of his runs have been disappointing. He would need a career best to win this; however, Finley Marsh takes off five which might make him competitive. At the age of eight he is vulnerable to younger legs and his best trip is over the bare five furlongs.

Captain Colby won this last season but his form of late has been disappointing. He has been getting beaten all season but not by small margins. He is now three pounds lower than when winning last season, but the key to him seems to be the unusual distance of 5 ½ furlongs. He has been running over six furlongs this season which he does not quite stay and he is not quick enough over five furlongs. The return to 5 ½ furlongs and the new lower weight can see Captain Colby come back to top form.

2.25 Doncaster 7f (7f6y) Alan Wood Plumbing And Heating Park Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Aclaim 2 points to win at 10/3 with Boylesports

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Aclaim – 76
2) Home Of The Brave – 75
3) Breton Rock – 72

Race analysis:
If the ground continued to dry out then Breton Rock would be a real threat here, but he seems to struggle when the ground is wet. If the going is good then Breton Rock will have his perfect conditions – good going, 7 furlongs and Group 2; however, I think the top two have better chances.

Home Of The Brave is very consistent and with the stable in form he is definitely a threat to our selection. I have gone for Aclaim as Home Of The Brave has only won at Group 3 level and I am not sure he has the outright speed to win in a higher class.

Aclaim is yet to win this season, but has been running in top class races including finishing second last time behind Barndo over 6 ½ furlongs in the Group 1 Maurice de Gheest at Deauville. He was staying on in that race and has already won over 7 furlongs at Group 2 level. He is versatile in regrd to the ground as he has won on fast and soft. I think Aclaim’s class will make the difference in the latter stages of this race.

2.40 Chester 1m4½f (1m4f63y) 32Red.com Stand Cup Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Soldier In Action – 48
2) Duretto – 46
3) Across The Stars – 42

Race analysis:
This is likely to be run at a muddling pace which could just result in a surprise result, so no bet.

 

3.35 Doncaster 1m6½f (1m6f115y) William Hill St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Colts & Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo)

Selections:

Capri 2 points to win at 7/2 generally

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Capri – 105
2) Stradivarius – 103
2) Defoe – 103

Race analysis:
The St. Leger is one race where statistics and Dosage Trends (breeding data re stamina) time and time again provide the best guide to the winner.

Defoe scores highly both on the trends and Dosage numbers, but has not performed higher than at Group 3 level . He has been wonderful to watch this season (and we spotted him before his first win) winning all four of his races. There is likely to be more improvement to come and he should stay the distance based on his Dosage numbers, but I am not convinced there will be enough improvement to win at Group 1 level.

Stradivarius is another threat and does well on most trends and comes into the race in great form. He won very impressively last time over two miles and if repeating that form should not be far away; however, he was getting a lot of weight from Big Orange that day. He now faces superior rivals off levels and that makes his task difficult.

Rekindling has run well over 1 mile 6 furlongs in his last two races, winning a Group 2 and finishing second behind the talented Order Of St. George in the other. I do think he has place possibilities but don’t think he has the class to beat our selection.

Capri won the Group 1 Irish Derby last time and finished sixth in the Derby back in June and the step up in trip will suit his stamina traits. He has the outright speed to tuck in behind the leaders and enough stamina to go past his rivals in the final stages and outstay the pack. Ryan Moore is the best in the world in these top races and he can add to Aiden O’Brien’s ever growing Classic tally.

4.45 Doncaster 1m P J Towey Construction Ltd Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-110)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Master Carpenter – 89
2) Big Baz – 87
2) Battered – 87

Race analysis:
Only four points separate the top four rated and this race could well provide the closest finish of the day, so no bet.

5.55 Doncaster 1m P J Towey Construction Ltd Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-110)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Tawdeea – 54
2) Game Starter – 52
3) King Bolete – 50

Race analysis:
Game Starter is my idea of the winner here, but at even money he represents no value at all, especially with the threat from Tawdeea.