Cleeve members selections – Saturday 11th November

Hi everyone,
Well its the end of another winning season and we focus on the last major Flat meeting at Doncaster.

Our Jumps coverage starts in earnest next Saturday with the Open meeting at Cheltenham and we are really looking forward to it.

We have 3 selections for tomorrow so lets hope we can back some winners to cap off a great season so lets get down to business...

Good luck
The team at Cleeve

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1.35 Doncaster 7f (7f6y) Betfred "Supports Jack Berry House" Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Muntadab 1 point each way at 6/1 generally (4 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Muntadab – 170
2) Heaven’s Guest – 150
3) Hells Babe – 148
4) Lord Of The Rock – 143

Race analysis:
An interesting end of season handicap with multiple course and distance winners running tomorrow.

Heaven’s Guest has not won since July 2015 and this former top handicapper has dropped to a level where he should be competitive. He does look to have lost his love of the game and may have place claims at best. He has carried big weights in top handicaps for several years and I think that has taken its toll.

Hells Babe is interesting dropping from Listed level to an average Class 2, but he is a stone higher than his last win in a lower class race. He didn’t show anything in the Listed races to suggest that he would win this. Hells Babe may well have improved by a stone since his last win, but there are too many question marks.

Lord Of The Rock was the last horse I ruled out despite the gap in the ratings, as he likes Doncaster, soft going, big fields and can stay further than 7 furlongs. I ruled him out as his form can be a bit in and out and he either finishes miles behind or wins; hopefully tomorrow will turn out to be one of the former.

Muntadab is in great form; also goes well at Doncaster, is suited by the going and a big field and stays further than 7 furlongs. The main difference is he is consistent and has been in peak form in the last few weeks. If he has not gone over the top, he should be thereabouts.

2.05 Doncaster 6f (6f2y) Betfred Mobile Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Sainted 1 point each way at 12/1 Boylesports (4 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Teruntum Star – 124
2) Gordon Lord Byron – 117
3) Flying Pursuit – 116
3) Sainted – 116

Race analysis:
Flying Pursuit is very consistent and will likely place again, but he seems to lack the outright speed to win at this level. He has already been beaten by both Teruntum Star and Perfect Pasture and they may hold the upper hand again.

Gordon Lord Byron is a fantastic horse and he has won at the highest level, but these days he is more suited to this level. He also shoulders a seven pounds penalty for a win back in May and I think that puts wining this beyond him nowadays.

Teruntum Star was hard to pass over, as he has been in the form of his life the last twice and a repetition of his latest run will see him go close. He has not run outside of handicap level since his two year old days and it remains to be seen if he is up to winning at this level.

The favourite is Sir Dancealot but his form is a bit in and out, although he has the talent to win this.

Sainted was disappointing last time, but that is not unusual for three year old fillies to have an occasional off day. She is a beautifully bred filly and is suited by course and distance and the going. If she is back to her best she has a lot more scope than most in this race. She has been gently handled by her trainer and if the going does not get too heavy she should go close.

2.40 Doncaster 1m2f (1m2f43y) Betfred TV EBF Stallions Breeding Winners Gillies Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Time Chaser – 73
2) Indulged – 72
3) Melesina – 70

Race analysis:
Some decent fillies in the race, but too close to call so no bet. One to watch for potential winners next season.

3.15 Doncaster 1m4f (1m3f197y) Betfred November Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Royal Line 2 points to win at 6/1 Ladbrokes, Corals, Betfred and Totepsort

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Royal Line – 218
2) Dance The Dream – 191
3) Sepal – 175
4) Wild Hacked – 169

Race analysis:
I ruled out both Dance The Dream and Wild Hacked as I don’t think they will cope with the ground. Of the two Dance The Dream is the more likely to go close.

Sepal had a brilliant middle part of the season which saw him win four races in August and early September. Those wins resulted in him rising from 62 to 84 in the official ratings and he is now racing off a mark of 91. I think that the rise through the weights probably will discount him from winning here and he struggled off the mark on his last run.

Other dangers in the race include Euchen Glen and Syphax.

Royal Line has run three times winning twice and I think he has  immense potential. John Gosden has had a mixed season until the last month or so when the stable has started firing again. Both the stable and jockey are in great form and if Royal Line settles within the first two furlongs I am pretty sure that he can win this race. I have gone for win despite the big field as I believe if he does not look like going close he will be eased and saved for next season.