Wednesday 18th September 2013

Unusually we have a selection mid week outside of the big festivals, but there is a decent Listed race at Sandown tomorrow with a horse getting the race conditions to suit against rivals with question marks against them.

It is possible that we may have a selection Friday so keep an eye on your in box.

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3.55 Sandown Fortune Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1


Penitent 2 points to win at Betfair odds or 11/4 Stan James, 5/2 generally

Race Analysis:

This race boils down to one between the top three rated.

Aesop’s Fables looks incredible value but his rating is based upon a Group 1 win in France prior to joining Godolphin.  He will appreciate the soft going but has shown no kind of form since joining Godolphin.  In a handicap he would be getting nine pounds from Penitent not running off level weights.

If this race was being run on good or quicker ground I would have selected Wentworth who is improving and will be a Group horse next season.  However looking at his record and that of his parents none of them have run on this kind of ground and most of their winning form has been on quick ground.

Penitent is now seven years old and that has kept the stake low but he runs very well at Sandown but more importantly runs to his best form on soft going.  I can see him staying on up the hill to hold off all challengers who I think will struggle on the forecast going.

Good luck