Thursday 26th September, 2013

A small profit today with Gospel Choir winning.

I looked at three races from Newmarket but end up having a selection in two of them including one of our biggest bets of the season to date.

I have put up a horse from Chile, which boasts impressive lineage including Mr Propector, Danzig and the great Nijinsky! If you glance at his form you may think I am bonkers but read the write up below and we can always judge by result as usual.

Back tomorrow evening with selections for Friday from Newmarket in the lead up to the Cambridgeshire.

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3.10 Newmarket Princess Royal Richard Hambro E B F Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1)

Selections:

Phiz 2 points to win at Betfair odds or 7/2 William Hill

Race Analysis:

Souviens Toi is ultra consistent without really looking like winning recently.  She is likely to run her race and pretty certainly will place.

Alta Lilea is another consistent type with plenty of runs under her saddle and no doubt will show her toughness here.  She may try and make all which will set up the race for our selection.

Tempest Fugit (which I always thought should mean “don’t fidgit” but means time flies or flees) has had both her wins on the all weather.  She is likely to be one of the challengers in this race and is proven over the distance at least.

Kikonga is at least a level below this but at least knows how to win, but she is likely to finish out of the frame.

I have gone for Phiz not because of her ratings and she is not the traditional value odds; however sometimes you have to go by what you see rather than what the numbers show.  Phiz has only had 4 runs and came second in a Group 2 behind The Lark last time after a long break.  She is still improving and probably needed the run so should win this Listed race with ease.

4.15 Newmarket Jockey Club Rose Bowl (Formerly Fenwolf Stakes) (Listed Race)

Selections:

Sabor A Triunfo 1.5 points each way at Betfair odds or 12/1 Skybet and Paddy Power

Race Analysis:

Caucus is the main challenger to the selection having won two Listed races, but was average when upped in Class in his last two races.  If the selection does not stay then I would think Caucus will win here.

Genzy had a good run in a big handicap recently finishing second behind Tiger Cliff and that is probably his best form to date.  He is very consistent but one win in fifteen does not make me want to back him to win when upped in Class from his best form.

Sabor A Triunfo is a Group 1 and 2 winner from Chile – ok it may not be a Group 1 at Royal Ascot but probably still ranks at Group 2 level here, which is a mile above the opponents today.  I would think that Ed Dunlop has been working him with some of his top stayers and thinks he is good enough to go up in distance.  His breeding is superb and if on form should be able to trot round especially as these races are run at a jog.  If anywhere close in the final furlong he will win this at very generous odds.

Good luck

Andrew