Hi everyone,

here is another ante post selection for the Festival. The Supreme is the target this time and we are putting this out prior to the Final declarations as if Samcro comes out then the price will shrink and the EW element will disappear.

We will post a summary of antepost selections on Monday

Good luck,
The team at Cleeve

Leave a Comment





Tuesday 13th March 2018 - 1.30 Cheltenham 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Selections:

Kalashnikov 1 point each way at 5/1 (NRNB) Bet365 (1/4 odds a place)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Kalashnikov – 136
2) Samcro – 135
3) Getabird– 134
4) First Flow – 120

Race analysis:
Samcro according to Mr O’Leary will run in the Ballymore but watch for the final declarations before making up your mind if that is true. If Samcro runs here I think he will be very hard to beat.

Getabird is a very short priced favourite and if he were trained by someone other than Willie Mullins he would be around 11/4 not 11/8. I am not convinced that he will get up the hill unless he has got a soft lead. I always like a favourite which is too short in the market and they should always be taken on.

First Flow has won his last three and his last two wins were very impressive; however, both were in very heavy ground. The going on Tuesday looks like being soft with heavy patches, but I think that will diminish First Flow’s chances.

I did have a long look at Slate House, which we have backed previously and although there were excuses for his last two runs I think he is below Grade 1 level. If he runs up to his very best, he could sneak a place if others run below par. Slate House is over priced but there enough with better chances to rule him out.

Kalashnikov would be half his price if he was trained by Willie Mullins but as he is trained by the little known Amy Murphy he is great value. Kalashnikov has the top rating on our numbers, top speed rating, top RPR (taking out Samcro) and the top average prize money. I have been most impressed by the horse’s attitude and if push comes to shove between him and Getabird I know which one is more likely to battle to the line. My view is if the horse is talented enough it matters not the name of the trainer.