A quiet Saturday with Sandown being called off today, which is a shame as I had a big bet lined up in the Tolworth Hurdle.

We are left with one selection at Wincanton (weather permitting) tomorrow and he is decent value so hopefully will boost festive profits.

2.05 Wincanton Bathwick Tyres Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-145)


Consigliere 2 points win at Betfair odds or 100/30 Ladbrokes

Race Analysis:

Wings of Smoke places more than he wins and seems to be below this level.  His jumping is generally sound and he may be able to get a place if staying on this ground.

Jump City from Paul Nicholl’s stable was under consideration for this but he seems to have reached a peak and is perhaps needing a drop in the ratings before winning again.

Balzaccio could be dangerous off his low weight but has only won one chase and that was at Class 4.  He may struggle to keep pace with a couple of these tomorrow.

Toby Lerone fell last time but had won his previous two chases at a lower level.  He has gone up in the weights and that coupled with his recent fall puts me off.  Dan Skelton has been doing well in his debut season and Toby Lerone can fill the runner up spot behind Consigliere.

Consigliere won this race two years ago before finishing second last year and he is now on a better weight.  The seven pounds that Kieran Ward takes off can make the difference here.  That makes Consigliere nine pounds lower than when finishing second last year and this field is not as strong.  I expect him to be kept handy before making his move three fences out.  The going and step up in distance will suit and he is a value price, although he is being backed. (in form 4/1)

Good luck and have a great weekend.