The end to a frustrating month with seconds outnumbering winners and pretty much no luck throughout the month. Hopefully we can finish on a high with selections in five races from both Chester and Sandown. I m confident this gives us a decent chance of bouncing back. 

It is a possibility that we might have a selection for Sunday, but that depends on the declarations and will not be released until Sunday morning.

Enjoy your weekend,

Andrew

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Minstrell Recruitment Handicap (CLASS 2), 2.20 Chester

Selections:

El Viento 2 points win at Betfair odds or 10/1 Bet Victor

Race Analysis:

Addictive Dream would probably have been the selection here but has not been in any sort of form this season.  He has been hamstrung due to two decent wins in Meydan.

Baby Strange like Addictive Dream has a high draw which is always difficult to win with over the sprint distances.  He has moved back up in the handicap and appears to need a bit of cut these days.

Doctor Parkes is now seven but is still capable of winning a race like this from his low draw, however I think he will probably lack the pace to hold off El Viento.

El Viento is on a winning mark and has won in this class, so it is really a question of is he quick enough to get across to the rail in front of Doctor Parkes.  I  think he will as his best form behind Heeraat which then won a Group 3 is probably the best in this race.  He should be a decent price but George Challoner’s five pounds claim makes it a very generous price.

Crabbie´s Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap (CLASS 2), 2.55 Chester

Selections:

Brae Hill 2 points win at Betfair odds or 12/1 Paddy Power

Race Analysis:

Regal Parade is top rated due to his past exploits and even though he ran well last time out at Ripon.  His battling qualities could well see him place and his apprentice is decent which helps takign some weight off.

Bertiewhittle seems to have been around for ever despite being only five years old.  He is still along way above his last winning mark (12 pounds) and it is unlikely he will win again until he comes down the weights.

Correspondent is probably the best horse in the race but is plenty high in the weights and has a wide draw which makes life difficult.   I am put off by the fact that he has not won against older horses, as he faces here.

Macret has been struggling due to winning a Group 3 last season at Chester and his penalty has meant he has not shown the same level of form.  He also has to battle against a wide draw in twelve.

Ayaar was under serious consideration due to his weight for age allowance and the fact he ran well last time out.  He also has a six pound pull at the weights with Correspondent but still could find a couple too strong here.

Brae Hill disappointed for us earlier this season and was given a confidence boosting win in a lower class last time out.  He is back on a winning mark in this class and that is even before the five pounds claim comes off.  He also has a low draw and likes Chester, which is a big plus.  Returning to tactics of making all should make the difference here.  He is being backed so try and get a best price guarantee.

 

Golden Square Shopping Centre Chester (Handicap) (Listed Race), 3.30 Chester

Selections:

Sun Central 3 points win at Betfair odds or 7/2 various

Race Analysis:

This is a decent race with some improving horses running.

Star Lahib ran well behind Our Obsession at York last week and steps up a furlong here, but I am not convinced that this will suit her.  She has also had plenty of tough races and probably has less scope than our selection.

Guarantee needs the ground to be a lot softer than this and unless there is some unforecast rain he is unlikley to win here.  He ran at York behind Tiger Cliff and never got a clear run behind a wall of horses.

Tempest Fugit won a Listed race at Lingfield in his final race of last season and has gone up 9 pounds for that.  He is likely to need a race or two before showing his best, but he is the greatest threat to our selection. Another threat could come from the Sir Mark Prescott horse sitting at the bottom of the weights now that he is being upped in distance.

Sun Central looked very good winning at this level last time out, and I am pretty sure he would have won the Ebor if the ground had been good or better and if he had been allowed to run.  Due to his draw I have kept the stake at 3 points and expect that Seb Sanders will try and tuck him in behind before making a move with two furlongs to go.

He is a confident selection as I feel he is up to group class…

Thoroughbred Breeders´ Association Atalanta Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares), 3.15 Sandown

Selections:

Shuruq 2 points win at Betfair odds or 14/1 generally

Race Analysis:

Zibelina is undefeated and was close to being a selection here, but she is too short a price considering she is making her seasonal debut.  There is no doubt she is a very promising filly so if she is fully wound up she will win here.  I think it is more likely she is using this as a prep for a group race in the coming weeks.

Falls of Lora is probably just below the level she faces today and may even be in as as a pacemaker for the other Godolphin’s other two runners.

Aquatinta is very consistent and has been running reasonably in Group 3 races. She is far too big a price for a filly with her talent, but still she will be an unlikely winner of this.

Shuruq has a fantastic rating virtue of her form in Meydan where she won a Group 3 and was second in a Listed race; however in her last couple of races she has not shone.  This race is a very different proposition however, and she has a huge weight for age advantage and would have been top weight without this.  Even though I do like Zibelina the odds available for Shuruq are too big to ignore and she can go very close even with her lack of turf experience.

Betfred TV & Levy Board Handicap (CLASS 2), 3.50 Sandown

Selections:

Danchai 2 points win at Betfair odds or 11/1 various and Trade Commissioner 2 points win at Betfair odds or 11/1 Paddy Power and Coral

Race Analysis:

Labarinto as I have stated before is a most frustrating animal, he is hugely talented but only shows it on the racecourse once in a blue moon.He won this race last year but has proven hard to win with ever since.

Chapter Seven is probably a couple of levels below this , he may have some improvement to come but to win this he would have to improve a hell of a lot.

Vasily could well place here despite being on a career high mark with Robert Tart taking a few useful pounds off.  I can see him running well but being passed in the latter stages of the race.

Danchai was poor last time and I am hoping he bounces back to his previous form which saw him win a much higher class handicap at York.  If he was to repeat that form then he will be very hard to beat.

Trade Commissioner is thrown in as a strong cover for Danchai.  He has a 100% record at Sandown (including at today’s distance). Both  John Gosden and William Buick also have a good record here so I think he is decent odds to go in here.