A very busy day tomorrow and I had to reduce the number of races from seven down to five. I was very tempted to go for all seven and the two I have left out are 300 Warwick Rathvinden and 315 Kempton Nadiya de la Vega.
We may have another ante post bet released on Sunday or Monday so keep an eye on your email from Sunday evening.
1.35 Kempton williamhill.com Levy Board Tolworth Hurdle Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) (CLASS 1)
I could not believe the price when I looked up The Liquidator as I thought he would probably be around 6/4 at best.
Prince Siegfreid has class from the flat but hasn’t yet brought that to his hurdles career and the ground won’t lend itself to flat speed tomorrow.
Upazo is probably only the price he is due to the Walsh/Mullins combination and although he has won both his hurdles this season both were a much lower level than this. It would be no surprise if Willie Mullins is using Upazo as a measure against the top UK Novice to enable him to best place some of his stars at the Festival come March.
The Liquidator is top class and the only reason I didn’t make him a bigger bet is his trainer’s reservations about the tight track now that the race has been switched to Kempton from Sandown. He has won at Punchestown which is reasonably similar to Kempton, so I am willing to back him especially at what could turn out to be very generous odds.
2.10 Kempton williamhill.com Chase (Listed Race) (CLASS 1)
This race I believe is one between the proven Captain Chris and the improving Twinlight.
Champion Court has been out of sorts in his last few and although I like him as a horse he is at his best on better ground. He may set a decent gallop though which will set up the race for Captain Chris.
Twinlight keeps improving this season winning a Grade 2 last time out and he will definitely give Captain Chris most to do. He jumps well and has a great winning strike rate over fences with 6/9 wins, but I am not convinced he stays and the ground plus the extra half mile could find him out.
However Captain Chris is a Grade 1 level horse and his class can tell in the final couple of furlongs. Captain Chris loves Kempton and that is another big plus with Twinlight having his first run in the UK.
2.25 Warwick Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) (CLASS 2)
Grand Vision would probably have been a selection if he hadn’t disappointed on his seasonal return. His stable was off form but the horse had also been off for a year and is sitting on a very high mark. One to watch going forward to see if he can recapture his form.
Cyrien Star is good value and can cope with soft going; however he was pulled up last time when running on heavy and could struggle again here. His 3 pound claim could be of benefit but I prefer him on better going.
Seymour Eric completes the hat trick of horses which pulled up last time and he appers to be going backwards at the minute although he is back on a winning mark. Again one to watch going forward rather than backing today.
African Gold has been chasing and returns to hurdling after not setting the chasing world alight. He was classy as a novice running At Fishers Cross close and not being disgraced behind Solwhit in a Grade 1 at Aintree. He has a lot of weight but the distance should nulify that and he copes well with heavy going. The stable does well at Warwick and the drop from Grade 1 to Class 2 should give him a massive opportunity to win here at a big price.
2.40 Kempton William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1)
A very open race and I was going to leave it alone until I saw the prices for our two selections and they are worth risking a point each on.
Junction Fourteen is the favourite but has taken a huge hike up the weights after winning here last time in a much easier race.
River Maigue looks classy between the obstacles but seems hard to win with and I would question his battling qualities in a big field especially on this ground.
Like Minded won last time for the up and coming Dan Skelton but he is not getting any younger (the horse not Dan!). Again the rise in the weights and class is likely to find Like Minded out but he could run into a place.
Art Professor is dangerous off this weight but needs better ground to show his best and wins infrequently these days. He might be interesting at Cheltenham for the Festival if he continues to drop down the weights.
Saphir du Rheu is dangerous but I have ruled him out as I think he is too high in the weights for such a competitive race. He is likely to be threabouts but was too short a price to back here.
Kaylif Aramis unlike a lot of these is dropping in class and is suited by soft and heavy ground. He is too big a price to ignore and with 7 pounds off through Ryan Hatch’s claim should give him a great chance.
Spirit of Shankly has improved this season and the stable is firing presently. I would expect him to improve again and there appears to be market confidence behind him.
3.35 Warwick Betfred Classic Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1)
Hey Big Spender disappointed in the Welsh National and he probably hasn’t recovered from his efforts there plus is too high in the weights.
The same applies weight wise to Master Overseer which has a remarkable P1P1P1P1 record which I don’t remember ever seeing before. If on a going day he will be a threat to all.
Any Currency is decent but needs much better ground and I will not be surprised to see him being pulled up.
Loch Ba likes heavy going and has a reasonable weight and he normally jumps well. He is a value price and will be thereabouts at the finish.
Boyfromnowhere has only had a few chases but won the Southern National with a lot in hand. He handles the ground and is a very sound jumper and his decent claimer takes off 5 pounds which makes his task easier despite a rise for his last time out win.
Stamina is key here with the ground being heavy and 29 furlongs to cover with some tough fences to jump. Both our selections tick those boxes and I expect one of them to win.
A busy day but some strong selections and hopefully a decent profit on the day.
Have a great weekend.