Longchamp 7th October 2012

Hi

Seconditis continues with Soul looking like the winner and then the loser and then the winner before the classy Mince came through to win.

I do not produce ratings for foreign races but have outlined selections in three races at Longchamp tomorrow and have also given my preference for the other main races.  The first three races below are main bets and you need to take your choice to place with UK bookmakers on Paris Mutuel (Tote).  Generally UK horses are bigger prices on Paris Mutuel and French horses are bigger with UK bookmakers; however with so many UK fans going to Paris this has diminished over the years.

12.55 Prix L’Abbaye

Mayson 2 points to win

Mayson won the July Cup last time in grand style and has been put away for this race.  He handles the soft going and Spirit Quartz and Tangerine Trees can give him most to do here.

3.25 Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe

Orfevre 2 points to win

Best horse in the race and despite his draw can swoop late to pip St Nicholas Abbey and Camelot.  Interesting at bigger odds is Solemia which I backed at over 125-1 a couple of months ago and hadn’t expected to make it to the race.

The races and horses below are for information only and are NOT selections.

1.30 Prix Marcel Boussac

Magical Dream

Hot favourite will be French horse Peace Burg which remains unbeaten but Magical Dream can win this race again for Aidan O’Brien.  Interesting at bigger odds is Topaze Blanche.

2.05 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere

Olympic Glory

Likely to start favourite and is proven on the ground but this is a tough race which anyone of five could win.

2.40 Prix de L’Opera

Manieree

Manieree may seem a strange choice but John Oxx tends not to send runners away unless they have a decent chance.  He has a plum draw against the rail and although headstrong can use that to get a soft lead and may prove hard to catch.  Giofra and Izzi Top will chase after him but will they catch him?

4.55 Prix de la Foret

Sommerabend

The UK based runners will be favourites to win here, but I think this can be taken by the German runner Sommerabend which has been prepared for this race specifically throughout the season.  Penitent is a threat if coping with the drop in distance.

5.25 Prix du Cadran

Nikita du Berlais

Several of these have run in the big UK distance races this year Colour Vision, Saddler’s Rock and the improving High Jinx but I am intrigued by the flat debutant Nikita du Berlais which will love the going and could cause a surprise.

Good luck with the two selections.

Regards

Andrew