Quite an unusual bet for us on Friday with us backing a ten year old on the Flat, but when you look and eliminate all others then you should back what is left. To quote Sherlock Holmes "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth". Hopefully my logic stands up to the test tomorrow!
Archerfield Cup (Handicap) (CLASS 2), 3.00 Musselburgh
O Ma Lad has won his last two and has won three of his last five, but these have been at a lower class. He has gone up a total of eleven pounds and that coupled with the rise in class makes this very difficult.
Tropical Beat is the likely favourite, but even though he has the class to win here has needed a run prior to winning. His price and that fact make me look elsewhere for a selection.
Jonny Delta is the only course and distance winner in the field but seemed out of sorts last time and is probably just below this class level.
Party Line finished behind Noble Allan in the Northumberland Plate and despite being a typical Mark Johnston runner being ultra consistent I do not think he is good enough to win in this class. His last two attempts in Class 2 races have seen him finish down the field.
Between Us from Sir Mark Prescott’s stable has been running in Listed races his last two, but his only wins have been at a lower class. However I could overlook that with the stable being in such red hot form and Sir Mark being so adept at placing his horses; however on breeding and on race evidence Between Us does not stay 14 furlongs.
Noble Alan is better known as a hurdler and chaser and is still (even at the age of ten) still pretty unexposed on the flat over distance. He ran well behind Tominator in the Northumberland Plate and dropping back two fulrongs will suit. To allow for his age I have made the bet each way and it will be a surprise if he does not place. Interestingly he is being heavily backed this evening as I had expected him to be between 8/1-10/1.
Back tomorrow evening with Saturday’s selections.