Friday 13th September 2013

Unfortunately Ahzeemah does not run in the Doncaster Cup so we do not have our five point bet today.

Maureen was truly awful today and then you could not make it up with Seal of Approval falling but hopefully both horse and rider are ok. Tha'ir just added to my view that the betting gods have deserted us presently by finishing second, again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. I always try and keep positive during a poor run and the way I look at it is that if the majority of our selections are finishing in the top three then my analysis is sound and the winners will come.

We have a single selection in three races tomorrow and hopefully unlike The Lark I have picked the right one this time!

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2.10 Doncaster Ladbrokes Mallard Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2)

Selections:

Pether's Moon 2 points win at Betfair odds or 13/2 Ladbrokes or Sky Bet

Race Analysis:

This race is divided into experienced and inexperienced horses and the weight differential is key to the selection process.

Songcraft appears to be going backwards as far as form goes but this is closer to his level; however he has to give a lot of weight to the younger horses.  I can see him leading but being reeled in during the latter stages.

Camborne despite top weight is more likely to win than Songcraft and John Gosden does well in the is type of race here.  I still think that his weight will be his undoing in the latter stages.

Tenenbaum has great form on soft going and if the rains come in floods then he definitely has a chance; however he also has a big weight to contend with.  The forecast is for a dry day and quite warm so the ground is likely to be good by the start of racing.

Shwaiman from the in form Fanshawe stable is the likely favourite and I think this race is between him and our selection.  Shwaiman went up twelve pounds for his comprehensive win last time over a fulrong further despite his talent he also jumps in class here and that jump with weight on is a big ask.

Pether’s Moon is tough and won well at Goodwood last time.  He has a lot of weight in hand over the more experienced horses and that coupled with him already having won at this level.  Richard Hughes will hold him up and produce him in the latter stages to pass the horses at the top of the handicap and he is tough enough to hold off Shwaiman.

 

2.40 Doncaster Speedy Services Doncaster Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2)

Selections:

High Jinx 2 points win at Betfair odds or 5/2 Paddy Power

Race Analysis:

Colour Vision won the Ascot Gold Cup but he has been regressing since then and looks to have lost any acceleration which he had previously.  He has place prospects at best.

Times Up won this last year and has beaten our selection twice but by decreasing margins.  He ran well enough at Goodwood but finished one paced and I think that could be a sign of age catching up with him.

High Jinx is progressive unlike the majority of his rivals here and he can pass Times Up and Colour Vision to win this going away.  He is only 5 years old and is still improving and that will make the difference here.

4.25 Doncaster Towndoor Limited Commercial Property Rental Handicap (CLASS 2)

Selections:

Sir Reginald 3 points to win Betfair odds or 8/1 Ladbrokes

Race Analysis:

Elusive Flame is on a career high mark and is a stone higher since his only win at this level, which makes him an unlikely winner here despite his good draw.  He has the able assistance of Ryan Moore and he can lead before being passed in the last three hundred yards or so.

Bertiewhittle has not won for ages and his consistency means that he is also on a career high mark and unlikely to win here.  He is likely to struggle to place from his low draw.

Norse Blues has been running over a mile and frequently starts slowly which is likely to put paid to his chances here.  He is likely to finish well though and that may earn him a place with his decent apprentice taking off 3 pounds.

Shropshire is highly weighted again due to his consistency but is nine pounds above his last winning mark.  He is likely to place at decent enough odds but is unlikley to win off this level despite being the best horse in the race.

Corporal Maddox is out of the handicap by 6 pounds and is unlikley to feature even with his apprentice taking off 7 pounds.  He has won  off this mark but others have better chances especially with his low draw.

Sir Reginald has a massive rating due to the form of his two year old season and he has now dropped to a ridiculously low rating, so much so that he is actually two pounds out of the handicap.  This looks very much like a plot to me and he is owned by Jim McGrath of Channel 4 who undoubtedly would love to have a winner whilst presenting.  His high draw is a plus and he can use the rail to keep him straight in the final fulong.  Yeeoow may prove to be his biggest threat.

Good luck

Andrew