Friday 11th October 2013

A couple of races at York for us on Friday and I would like to think we have the winners of both.

I will be back tomorrow evening with selections for Saturday and as Nick has already let you know I am going to take a break resuming normal service for the Cheltenham Open meeting in November. However there will be intermittent selections especially for the Champions Day at Ascot on 19th October.

I will be spending my time building up ratings and a full portfolio for the National Hunt season. I would hope to release a few ante post bets in early November for some of the top jump races.

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3.05 York This Isn´t The "Stan James Champion Hurdle" Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2)

Selections:

Graphic 2 points win at Betfair odds or 5/1 Ladbrokes

Race Analysis:

Monsieur Chevalier’s rating is based upon his sprinting ability rather than over today’s distance of a mile.  On breeding Monsieur Chevalier should get a mile but he has been tried a few times over a mile and faded badly.

Brae Hill has one of these handicaps in him but has recently been finding one or two too strong in the final furlong.  He needs to drop another 4 pounds before we select him again perhaps in the spring.

Levitate was under consideration and his form reads well, however he has a bit to find with Brae Hill which may reverse their recent meeting.    He does have the able assistance of young Oisin Murphy who has been getting many plaudits recently.

Graphic is the type of horse I like to find that is dropping back in distacne and in class.  He is capable of winning above this class and if he has recovered from his run two weeks ago should go in here.  I also love the Ryan Moore and Willie Haggas combination.

4.15 York Parsonage Hotel And Cloisters Spa Stakes Handicap (CLASS 2)

Selections:

Van Percy 2 points win at Betfair odds or 12/1 Bet365 and Chancery 2 points win at Betfair odds or 12/1 Ladbrokes

Race Analysis:

Elhaame is favourite in most early price lists but has a tendency to finish second which is off putting.  Luca Cumani does have a good record at York so I would expect Elhaame to be fit and ready for this.

Kiwayu was under consideration here as he has won over course and distance in a similar class, but today’s opposition is a lot tougher off a higher mark.

Kashmir Peak would be a real threat if he could reproduce his hurdle form where he has won at Grade 2 level; however he is rated about 50 pounds below that on the flat for a reason.

Totalize is another one with better hurdle form than flat and to me this looks like a fitness booster before returning to hurdles.

I have gone for two horses which have won at this level but are curiously at opposite ends of the handicap – bizarre.

Chancery has won three times already this season including here in a better race than this.  He has been tried in a higher class and takes a big drop back here and will enjoy any rain which falls.

Van Percy is interesting especially with Oisin Murphy taking off five pounds and having won in this class previously this season.  He would have won last time having dropped down to this level after competing well at a higher level but was bumped and hampered when making his move.  He finished third but almost grabbed second in the final strides.  That tells me he is ready to win especially in this class.

Both should be a decent price and I will play them in a forecast with Elhaame.

Good luck

Andrew