Cleeve members selections – York day 3

Hi everyone,

A frustrating day today with 2 losers and an EW placed but we didn't have enough confidence to put up Seventh Heaven in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks, and the tendency for Found to finish second was confirmed although AP O'Brien has said she will be better in the autumn.

So we move into day 3 carry some loses forward but as long term members know we have been here before and always come out in front as there is a way to go yet.

So lets get down to business....

Good Luck

The team at Cleeve

 

1.55 York Sky Bet First Race Special Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Barsanti 2 points win at 5/1 generally

Race Analysis:

Winner: £40,463 Runners: 15 Distance: 1m4f
Top 4 Rated:
1) Stars Over the Sea – 108
2) Barsanti – 107
3) Yorkidding -100
4) Dawn Missile – 95

I was tempted by Dawn Missile as I think he could be a Haggas plot horse and will be a big price; however he needs everything to go his way to have a chance on the book. Dropping back in trip should help and if his jockey can get him in a decent position from his wide draw he could place.

Yorkidding is a frustrating animal and like a lot of Mark Johnston’s string he gets plenty of action. He has run 24 times at the age of four winning five times, but not in a race of this standing. He will undoubtedly go well again but I don’t see him winning.

Stars Over the Sea is another Johnston inmate and he has a reasonable win rate, but his wins have been below this level and I can’t see him winning here. The seven pounds rise for winning a Class 3 handicap impressively has probably ended his claims here.

Barsanti has top weight and I had to really look hard before putting him up here; however he was second in a Listed contest last time and has won a race of this quality previously. The Varian and Atzeni combination is adept at winning over these middle distances and he can win this prior to winning at Group 3 level later in the season.

2.30 York Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Trip to Paris 2 points to win at 3/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, and Wiliam Hills

Race Analysis:

Winner: £113,420 Runners: 7 Distance: 2m88y
Top 3 Rated:
1) Clever Cookie
2) Trip to Paris
3) Pallasator

This is a very good renewal of the Lonsdale and a race I am really looking forward to.

Clever Cookie and Pallasator are both very consistent and both are very capable of winning this; however I think both are on the wane and that lets us seek value elsewhere.

I am hoping that there is a decent pace in the race and that will open the door for Trip to Paris. He unlike the opposition has won at Group 1 level and he can show that class here. He ran over 10 furlongs last time and the extra six will suit and he can power past these in the final furlong. Graham Lee gets on well with the horse and he can produce him perfectly to win. He no longer has a Group 1 penalty and that is a huge help.

3.05 York Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Nemoralia 2 points to win at 9/4 generally

Race Analysis:

Winner: £85,065 Runners: 11 Distance: 7f
Top 3 Rated:
1) Nemoralia
2) So Beloved and
3) Librisa Breeze

Librisa Breeze is a horse I like as you will know when we had him at 20/1 at Royal Ascot where he finished second. I do think that he has the potential to win at Listed level and possibly even at this level; however he has had a couple of tough races and may need a break.

So Beloved is the wrong side age wise and has not been in the best of form of late. I think he is actually a Spring horse with the majority of his wins coming in April and May. He is unlikely to place in my view and I might have a look at a lay the place price on Betfair.

We backed Nemoralia when she won here over a furlong further back in May and she has since run with credit in two Group 1 races. With the weight for age and the sex allowance she is incredibly well off at the weights and can use her superb acceleration in the final furlong to win. She would have been a bigger bet, but for minor concerns about the drop back in trip.

3.40 York Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (2yo+)

Selections:

Profitable 2 points Win at 13/2 Betvictor and Corals

Race Analysis:

Winner: £236,622 Runners: 20 Distance: 5f
Top 4 Rated:
1) Profitable
2) Mecca’s Angel
3) Limato
3)Easton Angel

If this was over 6 furlongs Limato would be a strong bet, but over five furlongs I think he could be vulnerable to an out and out speedster. He is classy and has a superb winning strike rate and undoubtedly will be flying towards the finish.

Easton Angel gets the age allowance but is probably just below Group 1 class presently having finished an impressive fourth in the July Cup at Goodwood. Three year old winners of this have traditionally won the July Cup. (3 of last 5 three year old winners)

I am pretty sure that this will be another battle between Mecca’s Angel and Profitable and although Mecca’s Angel looked back to herself last time at the Curragh I cannot see her reversing the past two meetings with Profitable.

Profitable can be a crowning glory in what has been a brilliant season for Clive Cox and he can take up the running with a furlong to go and hold off all comers to win. The drop back to five furlongs is the key for him and he can win from Mecca’s Angel and a fast finishing Limato.

4.55 York Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (2yo+)

Selections:

Bobby Wheeler 1 point EW at 10/1 Ladbrokes

Race Analysis:

Winner: £236,622 Runners: 20 Distance: 5f
Top 4 Rated:
1) Arcanada
2) Bobby Wheeler
3) Banksea
4) Another Touch

Another Touch won last time out but in a lower level Class 2 and only just won so its hard to see him winning this which is a tougher race.

Arcanada is a decent animal but like Oh This Is Us is carrying too much weight. He can place if getting a clear run up the rail and his form at Ascot behind Defrocked is probably the best so far.

Banksea drops back in trip and that should help, but I think he will be outclassed here.

Bobby Wheeler was a second for us last time in a decent race at Goodwood and can improve again and win this. He is a fine actioned horse and even if the forecast rain comes in he will cope with the going.
Of the other the dangers might be Markhan and Viscount Barfield.