Cleeve members selections – Wednesday 25th April

Hi everyone,

we are still knocking on the door to get in the winner's enclosure but our selection today Low Run ran really well to finish fourth at a nice EW price, so we come away with 2 points profit in the bag.

It was a race full of hustle and bustle and he was always in the first half of the field given a great ride by Katie O'Farrell. He travelled and jumped well until he smashed through the third last. That didn't seem to lose him any momentum and was 5th coming over the last and finished best of all up the run in and another 100 yards and he would have been very close.

I am kicking myself as I did say I was tempted by Un De Sceaux EW and what a race he ran. Patrick Mullins went to the front from the get-go and was never headed. He jumped like a stag and Douvan just couldn't get to him and he won going away.

If you haven't watched the Champion Novice Chase (6.40) I urge you to do so and come up with your own theory - bizarre is the only word that comes to mind. I would love to be a fly on the wall in the steward's room when Paul Townend tries to explain that one away.

So we move onto day two of the Punchestown festival and we have just the one selection to get stuck into.

Good luck,
The team at Cleeve

3.40 Punchestown 2m5f Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle (4yo+ 95-123)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Smokey Joe Joe – 225
2) Ben Brody – 199
3) Icantsay – 175
4) Crossed My Mind – 174

Race analysis:
Smokey Joe Joe was of interest but at twelve is likely to be passed by some younger legs. This is a race where anyone of ten could win. No Bet.

 

4.20 Punchestown 2m4f Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle (4yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Rock De Baune – 80
2) Good Thyne Tara – 78
3) Pravalaguna – 72

Race analysis:
I could not separate the top two, and in situations like these, you can go round in circles and over analyse a race and when in doubt I would rather keep our powder dry and look for other opportunities.

 

4.55 Punchestown 2m4f Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle (4yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Kilbricken Storm – 103
2) Blow By Blow – 101
3) Next Destination – 100

Race analysis:
This is one to watch for next season’s bets, but too hard to call between the top three also with Lackaneen Leader a potential danger. No Bet.

 

5.30 Punchestown 3m½f (3m120y) Coral Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) (5yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Road To Respect – 119
2) Outlander – 114
3) Total Recall – 111

Race analysis:
I like Road To Respect for this and thought he did well in the Gold Cup on the unsuitable ground, but I would want more than 2/1 here. There are multiple threats from about five rivals so 2/1 represents zero value. No Bet.

 

6.40 Punchestown 2m4f Guinness Handicap Chase (Grade A) (5yo+) Selection: 

Selections:

Woodland Opera 1 point each way at 17/2 BOG Paddypower (5 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Woodland Opera – 167
2) Devils Bride – 145
3) Clarcam – 144
4) Shanahan’s Turn – 142

Race analysis:
Shanahan’s Turn is a threat here, as he seemed to be coming back to form in his latest race at Aintree. If he can get into a rhythm a bit earlier and keep closer to the pace he should not be far away.

Patricks Park gets in off a low weight, but his price reflects his connections more than what he has achieved to date.

Clarcam is a horse I have backed over the years and had some decent returns, but he has had a lot of racing. He did run well for a long way in the Topham at Aintree, but I think off his current mark he is still too high in the handicap.

Devils Bride is getting on and has not been in the best of form this season. He won often for Willie Mullins but is 0-11 for Henry De Bromhead and that is probably due to his jumping going on a downward spiral.

Woodland Opera has won over both course and distance and won at this meeting last season. He has a good winning strike rate and despite being higher in the handicap is capable of further improvement. I think Woodland Opera provides value as this is easier than some of the races he has been contesting in the last year. Jessie Harrington is capable of springing a winner or two at these big festivals.