Cleeve members selections – Thursday 28th September

Hi everyone,

Our selection today Promising Run didn't live up to her name at all. She tried to challenge at the two furlong pole, but just plodded on at the same pace and didn't look like she was liking the ground at all.

We move on to fight another day and have a couple of selections at Newmarket for tomorrow...

Good luck,
The team at Cleeve

2.35 Newmarket 1m (Row) newmarketracecourses.co.uk Nursery Handicap (Class 2) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Maksab – 66
2) Rhosneigr – 64
2) Blue Laureate – 64

Race analysis:
Far too close to call and none of the main contenders really stands out as a betting opportunity. No Bet.

3.45 Newmarket 7f (Row) Tattersalls Somerville Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Tangled – 85
2) Tip Two Win – 80
3) Elarqam – 77

Race analysis:
I actually fancy the once raced Elarqam here, just not enough to have a bet with several other unexposed types in the race. Tip Two Win won at Listed level last time and will also throw down a challenge, so again no bet.

4.20 Newmarket 2m (Row) Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Nearly Caught 1 point each way at 6/1 generally

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Arch Villain – 90
2) Winning Story – 89
2) Nearly Caught – 89
4) Higher Power – 88

Race analysis:
Arch Villain was the last one I ruled out in this race as he comes here fresher than most; however, he would need to give a career best performance to win off this mark. Saying that I do expect Arch Villain to give our selection most to do, but think he will have to settle for a place.

Higher Power seems to save his best for all-weather tracks and I am not convinced that he has the finishing kick to win this. The stable has also had a poor season by their own high standard so he is readily passed by.

Winning Story also needs a career best to win here and seems to be better on all-weather tracks. He has yet to win outside of handicap company, so it is a big ask for him against a decent field.

Nearly Caught is saddled with top weight, but is actually two pounds lower than his last win, which was at this level. He has since performed well in decent races and I think he can win this over his best trip and conditions. The booking of James Doyle is a signal to me that the horse is ready to win. Hopefully we are getting decent value on him due to the fact he carries top weight.

4.55 Newmarket 1m4f (Row) Weatherbys General Stud Book Online Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Selections:

Torcello 1 point to win at 5/2 generally

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Jaameh – 76
2) Torcello – 74
3) Marmajuke Bay – 69

Race analysis:
Marmajuke Bay runs off a career high mark and on ground that is likely to be too quick for him. I think he will struggle to place on this going.

Jaameh was tempting returning to a decent surface, and he has first time blinkers to sharpen him up, but he gives a lot of weight to our selection which I think makes him vulnerable.

Torcello does need to improve to win this, but he didn’t cope with soft going last time and return to decent ground should enable him to stay this trip. The stable is in great form and Torcello is reunited with Oisin Murphy which is another plus. Due to the need for improvement and the threat from Jaameh however, we will only risk one point.