Hi everyone,

we had just the two selections today and came out with a small loss.
Black Mischief looked to be going really well but when asked the question two out just couldn't quicken and was beaten on the line for 3rd.

Native River ran OK but was never going to figure in the finish but still managed to keep on for third for a small return on the place.

We move on and have a busy day tomorrow so let's get down to business...

Good luck
The Team at Cleeve

 

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1.05 Chepstow 2m3½f (2m3f98y) Download The Coral App Handicap Chase (Class 2) (4yo+)

Selections:

Le Rocher 1 point each way at 8/1 BOG Bet365, Corals, Ladbrokes and Betvictor

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Le Rocher – 97
2) Top Gamble – 94
3) Touch Kick – 92

Race analysis:
Touch Kick comes from very strong connections and is likely to start as the favourite despite his lack of experience. He beat fourth-rated Beggar’s Wishes last time, but both were well behind the winner of that race Aso. Touch Kick certainly has potential but may lack the experience over a testing course against seasoned campaigners.

Top Gamble fell last time and may need a race or two to regain his confidence. That fall came early in the race when the horse was going well, and he is one of the most experienced runners in this race.

Le Rocher is one of those horses, which seems to be seasonal and almost all his wins have been in December and January. His price is probably about two points bigger than I was expecting so it lets us play each way to allow for the major threat from Touch Kick. Le Rocher has excuses the last twice and returns to a trip which suits him best and I expect to see an improved performance.

1.20 Kempton 2m 32Red.com Wayward Lad Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Kalashnikov – 48
2) Maria’s Benefit – 44
3) Dynamite Dollars – 42
3) Highway One O One – 42

Race analysis:
Potentially the best race of the day with top class novice chasers, but little value to be had. A great race to watch but not to bet in. No Bet.

1.35 Chepstow 2m (2m11y) Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (3yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Quel Destin – 46
2) Adjali – 46
3) Arverne – 44

Race analysis:
Nothing between the top three rated and likely to be run at a slow pace with a rush in the final furlong. No Bet.

1.55 Kempton 3m½f (3m121y) (Winter) 32Red Casino Mares' Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+)

Selections:

Momella 2 points to win at 13/8 BOG Bet365, Skybet and Betway

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Momella – 63
2) Culture De Sivola – 58
3) Sainte Ladylime – 57

Race analysis:
Sainte Ladylime is a very consistent mare and apart from one unseating has not been out of the top three in seven races over this season and last. She is very consistent but does not find the winners enclosure frequently enough these days and perhaps just lacks a bit of pace to quicken at the important stage of the race.

Culture De Sivola won a decent Class 2 at the end of last season and on that has claims here, especially after a pleasing seasonal debut in a Listed race. The main concern I have is she is now ten pounds above that winning mark and she would need to have improved again to win.

Momella fell last time when making ground in a Grade 2 and has placed in two graded races last season as a novice. Dropping back into handicap company will put less pressure on her hurdling and if she is on form should win this with ease. I would have had a bigger bet, but there is always a niggle after a horse falls if they have recovered their nerve, so we will stick to two points.

2.10 Chepstow 2m7½f (2m7f131y) "The Smart Money's On Coral" Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Virginia Chick – 86
2) Henryville – 85
2) Truckers Lodge – 85

Race analysis:
Another race which could be won by any of the top three rated or a couple of other threats. It is too difficult to call and as we have plenty happening today, we can give this race a miss. No Bet.

2.15 Wetherby 1m7f (1m7f36y) racingtv.com Castleford Handicap Chase (Class 2) (4yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Lady Buttons – 80
2) Duke Of Navan – 76
3) Just Cameron – 75

Race analysis:
This looks like a decent race and I am looking forward to watching it, but I cannot find any value. No Bet.

2.30 Kempton 2m Unibet Desert Orchid Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Altior – 48
2) Speredek – 41
3) Special Tiara – 40

Race analysis:
Altior should win unless he falls but he is prohibitive odds, so no bet. It is always important to enjoy these wonderful horses whilst we can savour every moment. No Bet.

2.50 Chepstow 3m5½f (3m5f110y) Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Selections:

Rons Dream 1 point each way at 16/1 BOG Skybet (7 places)Holly Bush Henry 1 point each way at 33/1 BOG Skybet (7 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Vieux Lion Rouge – 186
2) Baie Des Iles – 177
3) Elegant Escape – 170
4) Ballyoptic – 152

Race analysis:
Like all the other Nationals I tend to use trends to narrow down the field and we have seen success in all the Nationals using that approach including the Welsh National.

I will go through the top four rated and explain why they were ruled out first of all:
Vieux Lion Rouge – too much weight, too much experience
Baie Des Iles – too much weight, too long a break, finished outside top four LTO
Elegant Escape – too much weight
Ballyoptic – too much weight, finished outside top four LTO, too much experience
I do expect the top four to challenge and some of them to place, but it is difficult to win this race carrying more than 11 stone (actually more than 10-10).

After using about twelve trends I ended up with the following list:
Rons Dream, Dawson City, Kansas City Chief, Lieutenant Colonel and Holly Bush Henry
I ruled the three out due to the following reasons:
Lieutenant Colonel – lost all form and price reflects chances (100-1)
Kansas City Chief – last I ruled out and mainly due to having been over hurdles since leaving Ireland, so may take time to adjust
Dawson City – mainly due to question marks about his jumping and concerns about his lack of pace.

Rons Dream is very consistent and fits the profile of previous winners apart from not having won at Chepstow, although she has finished second. Rons Dream jumps well and should stay off her very reasonable weight. Being Welsh trained and ridden she would bring the house down.

Holly Bush Henry is ridden by James Bowen so would deliver another Welsh win and this one is very consistent having only been out of the top three on three occasions in eleven runs over fences. He tends to jump soundly and that will be needed tomorrow. I think he still has potential to improve and gets in here on a very low mark, which is ideal for this race.
NB look for bookmakers concessions for this race – you may well be able to get extra places – for example on the day Bet365 will probably have up to 7 places.

3.05 Kempton 3m 32Red.com Handicap Chase (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145)

Selections:

Adrien Du Pont 1 point each way at 8/1 BOG Bet365, William Hill and Boylesports.

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Adrien Du Pont – 72
2) Just A Sting – 66
3) Kilcrea Vale – 63

Race analysis:
Fourth-rated Springtown Lake is the market leader and is very consistent, but I cannot back him at his forecast 3/1. If he gets an easy lead, he could see these off coming into the final furlong, but I think there are other challengers for the lead here.

Just A Sting is seeking a hat trick and has gone up six pounds as a result and that coupled with the rise in class makes his price look skinny to me. His latest win was a very narrow one and the weight rise looks about three pounds too much to me.

Kilcrea Vale drops in class and has been running well in better races without winning and I think this is his best chance for a win for several races. He is a sound jumper and showed how good at Aintree over the National fences. This is a very different track and he could be outpaced here.

Adrien Du Pont is getting my trust for the last time if he fails to win here, but I still think he has potential to improve and perhaps this flat track will suit, and he can deliver another Paul Nicholls win. Adrien Du Pont has not won over fences since his chase debut, but he has run in races with muddling pace due to small fields and that will not have suited. A bigger field and a guaranteed pace should suit, and his price lets us play each way and hopefully, Adrien Du Pont can deliver to repay my trust!