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Cleeve members selections – Saturday 7th September

Hi everyone,

our only selection Unabated wasn't without support today and was backed down to 5/1 before the off.
He was up with the pace on the outside but he was being ridden at the 2 furlong marker and never really picked up and faded badly in the final furlong to finish a disappointing 10th.

We move on and have 3 selections for tomorrow to get stuck into so let's get down to business...

Good luck
The team at Cleeve

1.50 Haydock 1m6f Garswood Handicap (Class 2) (3yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) First In Line – 111
2) Calculation – 108
3) Moon King – 103

Race analysis:
The top two should be the main challengers here, but they’re hard to split and it will be a case whichever is on peak form on the day that wins. No Bet.

 

2.25 Haydock 1m (1m37y) Unibet Mile (Registered As The Superior Mile Stakes) (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Here Comes When – 67
2) Matterhorn – 66
3) Miss O Connor – 63
3) Sharja Bridge – 63

Race analysis:
Only seven points separate the top 6 rated and that shows what a difficult race this is. I do like Here Comes When, but if Matterhorn gets an easy lead, he could be hard to peg back. No Bet.

2.45 Ascot 7f Cunard Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Ventura Ocean 1 point each way at 25/1 with Skybet, Ladbrokes, Betvictor and Corals (4 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Breanski – 129
2) Ripp Orf – 128
3) Tabarrak – 124
3) Ventura Ocean – 116

Race analysis:
Vale Of Kent was our clear top-rated in this race and would have been a strong bet but has been declared a non-runner at the time of writing this.

Ripp Orf has a decent draw and won this last season, but he is a pound higher in the weights plus Jason Watson took off three pounds last season. Jason losing his claim means Ripp Orf is four pounds worse off and probably means Ripp Orf has place claims. His price is a few points too short and although I think he will run his usual good race here, I will pass this time.

Breanski has won at Class 2 (curiously the same race two seasons running at Doncaster. He finished behind Ripp Orf in this race last season but now has a pull at the weights for just over 3 lengths. Breanski has never won on this mark nor in such a competitive race. Likely to challenge for the places is overcoming his draw.

Tabarrak has won at Listed level twice off this mark but has not shone in the big field ultra-competitive handicaps like this. The stable is in form and perhaps this will be Tabarrak’s chance to shine, but he will need the breaks to come his way from his draw in the centre.

Ventura Ocean is a three-year-old, so gets a weight allowance and has been in great form this season finishing in the top two four times in six runs. He is unexposed at this level, but has a good draw, is well weighted and has a lot more potential than most of these.

3.00 Haydock 1m (1m37y) Ascendant Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Sesame Birah – 67
2) Tammani – 66
3) Pyledriver – 65

Race analysis:
I thought the 2.25 Haydock was tight but only six points separate six horses here and it is going to be a very closely fought race, and I could not split the field. No Bet.

3.20 Ascot 1m (Str) Ritz Club British EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Mubtasimah – 65
2) She’s Got You – 62
2) Lush Life – 62

Race analysis:
I will be surprised if the winner comes from outside of our top three rated, but I could not split them and there is minimal value to be had. No Bet.

3.35 Haydock 1m6f Old Borough Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Alright Sunshine 1 point each way at 15/2 with Paddypower, Betfair and Betfred (5 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Corelli – 154
2) Time To Study – 147
3) Alright Sunshine – 142
4) Clever Cookie – 124

Race analysis:
Corelli carries top weight, which on its own would never put me off; however, he has a nasty tendency to find at least one too good for him. Despite having won on soft in his early career he is better on good or good to firm going, so I am going to look for value elsewhere.

Clever Cookie at eleven is a veteran on the flat stage and it has been a long time since he last won – 2016 to be exact when winning a Group 2. Clever Cookie always gives his best, but he has not looked like winning in the last couple of seasons and it is hard to envisage him winning such a competitive race.

Time To Study won last time in France over this trip on very soft going and it could be that he needs this trip on soft going to show his best. I think this race is going to be too quick for him even on the soft going, but I do expect him to place.

Alright Sunshine is improving and despite pulling hard in the early stages last time he still managed to stay on strongly at the finish to win. He had a break before that run, which may explain why he did not settle. I am hoping he will settle better and Daniel Tudhope can get him in the right position coming around the home turn. He is being backed, which I am taking as a good sign.

3.55 Ascot 1m4f (1m3f211y) Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Never Do Nothing – 121
2) Cap Francais – 120
3) Baasem – 116

Race analysis:
Again this looks like an ultra-competitive handicap and several of these have the ability to win it, but it’s too hard to pinpoint one to back. Best watched. No Bet.

4.10 Haydock 6f Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Ten Sovereigns – 112
2) Fairyland – 106
3) Khaadem – 104

Race analysis:
Advertise was the top-rated and would have been a bet but is now a non-runner and Ten Sovereigns is also likely not to run due to the ground. With the two market leaders out, it is unlikely that we will get over 2/1 for Khaadem, so we will skip this race. No Bet,

4.30 Ascot 6f Fever-Tree Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Major Partnership 1 point each way at 12/1 general (4 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Major Partnership – 140
2) Magical Ride – 121
3) Gunmetal – 120
4) Lethal Lunch – 103

Race analysis:
Gunmetal is out of sorts this season and despite having dropped five pounds he remains above his last winning mark. Gunmetal would need to show some improved form before I can trust him, but he will be dangerous if he does.

Lethal Lunch is probably just below this level at this point in time, but at the age of four probably will have further improvement to come. He has had a light season to date with only two runs finishing fourth and winning on the all-weather. Lethal Lunch is a course and distance winner and that is a plus and he could challenge for a place.

Magical Ride comes here having had back to back wins and both were by a distance. Dropping back to six furlongs last time was a positive and although this is more competitive and a higher class, he could be a surprise package. Magical Ride has gone up 22 pounds for those wins and now goes up by three classes and that would make him Pegasus if he can win this!

Major Partnership has been off course for almost six months since running well in Meydan. He does stay further than 6 furlongs, but I am hoping that he will go off like a bat out of hell and outstay these. He has the class to win and the stable is just coming into form.

4.45 Haydock 5f Be Friendly Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Intense Romance – 79
2) Foolaad – 77
3) Arecibo – 75
3) Camacho Chief – 75

Race analysis:
I don’t ever remember a day with so many exposed horses, which are so tightly rated, and this race is another example. No point in betting for the sake of it, so let’s just enjoy the race. No Bet.