Cleeve members selections – Saturday 30th September

Hi everyone,

After a poor start we came out in front today to the tune of 4 points with a decent priced winner in the last at Newmarket.

Our first selection Amabilis ran a woeful race falling out of the stalls and having to be scrubbed along to try and join the field after two furlongs. He never looked like getting involved and only managed to pass 4 other horses. That was not his true running so we will keep an eye on where connections go next.

Mori wasn't much better, she was held up in touch by Ryan More, but by 3f out she was being pushed along and was unable to quicken and faded in the final furlong. Great ride by Josephine Gordon on the 20/1 winner Apphia to hold off Jamie Spencer on Pleasant Surprise in a ding dong battle.

Finally we had Addeybb in the Silver Cambridgeshire cup and what a run. Ryan Moore came up the middle of the course always keeping him in contention. At the business end of the race he switched and grabbed the stands rail to gamely get up in the final 50 yards for a well deserved win.

We have a very busy days racing tomorrow and have analysed 11 races to come up with 4 selections so let's get down to business.

Good luck,
The team at Cleeve

P.S. there will be selections for Arc day tomorrow so keep an eye on your inboxes...

1.50 Newmarket 1m (Row) Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Nelson – 57
2) Mildenberger – 55
3) Roaring Lion – 49

Race analysis:
Nelson is the most likely winner of this in my eyes, but he is unlikely to be any sort of value so we’ll give this a miss… no bet.

2.05 Haydock 1m (1m37y) Watch Racing UK On BT TV Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Original Choice – 120
2) Muntadab – 116
3) Century Dream 115

Race analysis:
I was quite interested in Original Choice but the more I looked at it the more unsure I was about his ability to cope with the ground, which could get very boggy…. so again no bet.

2.20 Newmarket 6f (Row) Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Heartache – 123
2) Different League – 122
3) Clemmie – 121

Race analysis:
Far too close to call and Coolmore runners have been beating each other all season…so no bet, but this is a race to savour and one to keep a keen eye on for future winners.

2.40 Haydock 5f Nationwidevehiclecontracts.Co.Uk Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Mayleaf Shine 1 point each way at 6/1 Corals

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Quench Dolly – 126
2) Hoofalong – 121
3) Mayleaf Shine– 113
4) Boundsy – 108

Race analysis:
Boundsy was of interest, especially with Sammy Jo Bell taking off three pounds; however, I think the ground will prove to be unsuitable.

Hoofalong seems to have been around for ever despite being only seven, and has probably got another win in him. But that win is unlikely to come in a race like this giving weight to a few unexposed three year olds and on what has proven in the past to be unsuitable going.

Quench Dolly was impressive on heavy going in a lesser race last time out, but I think he will find this tough off his present weight. Saying that he still has solid place claims, and will relish the heavy going.

Mayleaf Shine will also relish the going as won on heavy over course and distance last time beating Soie D’Leau, and that one went out and won his next race. Soie D’Leau is now worse off at the weights, but even with that he could give our selection most to do.

2.55 Newmarket 6f (Row) Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Colts) (Class 1) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Unfortunately – 116
2) Beckford – 106
2) Rajasinghe – 106

Race analysis:
Unfortunately was tempting, but I think some of the less exposed horses might improve past him. This is one race I am really looking forward to watching tomorrow as it will no doubt provide multiple winners for members next season.

3.15 Haydock 5f Nationwidevehiclecontracts.Co.UK Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Sainted 1 point each way at 7/1 Paddypower and Betfair (5 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Ice Age – 150
2) Mr Lupton – 144
2) Sainted – 144
4) Perfect Pasture – 131

Race analysis:
Mr Lupton is a bit in and out form wise these days, and could be an unlikely runner unless if there is any more rain.

Perfect Pasture is better on quicker ground and has also been running over further in the last two years. It normally takes a few runs to adjust to a drop back in trip, so I expect Perfect Pasture to get done for pace here.

Ice Age has been incredibly impressive winning his last three races and leading all the way. He will cope with the going but has gone up five pounds for his latest win and also has an eight pounds penalty to contend with. I think the weight rise and penalty will be his undoing plus he is unlikely to be left alone up front.

Sainted won over course and distance last time and has gone up eight pounds as a result. However I do think she has more improvement to come and she will relish the underfoot conditions. I have decided to go each way purely due to the fact that there will be threats from two or three of her rivals, but I do expect a win.

 

3.35 Newmarket 1m1f (Row) Betfred Cambridgeshire Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Greenside 1 point each way

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) GM Hopkins – 309
2) Greenside – 293
3) Novoman – 287
4) Borocco – 235

Race analysis:
GM Hopkins is still paying for his previous successes in big field handicaps and despite dropping to a winnable mark. I still think he is carrying too much weight to win this very competitive renewal.

Novoman is an improving sort which I am looking forward to seeing in these big handicaps next season, but at the age of three it would be a surprise if he he is up to winning this. Saying that I do think he could well place if getting a clear run and is not intimated by the big field.

Borocco won impressively last weekend at Newbury and looked to have quite a bit in hand that day. He has a four pounds penalty here and although I am not sure that rules him out completely, I do think it will be difficult to win this having only run last Saturday.

Greenside has not had that many runs and has a good win/run  record. I think he will be suited by the extra furlong here and meets most of the trends for winners of this race. He has won at Newmarket so the wide expanse of the course will not put him off. He is too big a price in my view and definitely worth a cautious bet.

N.B. – At the time of writing for some reason there are no prices showing for this race on Oddschecker. I expect some firms to go 5 or 6 places and would sacrifice a couple of points for more places.

3.45 Ripon 6f Ripon Cathedral City Of The Dales Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Classic Seniority – 118
2) Brian The Snail – 116
3) Flying Pursuit – 115
4) Right Touch – 108

Race analysis:
Much too tough to call and whichever horse and it is probably a case of whichever horse is at his best on the day will win, so no bet.

4.45 Newmarket 6f Ripon Cathedral City Of The Dales Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Exhort – 135
2) Simply Breathless – 125
3) Clubbable – 113
4) Dark Liberty – 107

Race analysis:
I do think that Exhort will win this, but he offers no value at the prices, so unfortunately is not a betting proposition for us.

5.00 Haydock 1m6f Watch Racing UK On The Go Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

 Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Taxmeifyoucan – 80
2) Sepal – 79
3) Amazing Red – 67

Race analysis:
I could not separate the top two rated here, and in a situation like that it is better not to have a bet in rather than guessing.

5.20 Newmarket 7f (Row) Iliffe Media And Velvet Magazine Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Robero 1 point each way at 14/1 generally

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Robero – 168
2) That Is The Spirit – 154
3) Ower Fly – 152
4) Dark Emerald – 150

Race analysis:
Ower Fly is much improved after the application of blinkers and won well last time. However that win was in a Class 4 and he now has an eight pounds rise to contend with in a much better race.

That Is The Spirit has a poor strike rate on turf these days and seems to be very high in the weights based on his most recent form. I can’t see him winning this as others are much better in at the weights.

Dark Emerald is another horse with plenty of weight who is not in sparkling form. He has generally been running in better races, but has been soundly beaten and he has not won for over two years. I do think in this class he has place claims, but he is not a potential winner for me.

Robero has the strong booking of Silvestre De Souza and I think seven furlongs suits him just as well as six furlongs. He disappointed last time after a break, but I am hoping that a return to Newmarket, where he finished fifth in the Bunbury Cup will bring out the best in him. Robero is a decent enough price for us to play each way, and I will be surprised if he does not place at least.