Hi everyone,

at the time of writing our two selections have not run yet so we will review those tomorrow.

We are in action tomorrow from Newcastle. Its a bit of departure for us as we don't normally cover the all-weather but tomorrow's card is of such good quality that we do cover this one each year.

The turnouts for most of the races at the other meetings are very disappointing and owners can't complain about prize money when they don't even enter their horses!

We have 4 selections to get our teeth into so let's get down to it.....

Good luck,
The team at Cleeve

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12.20 Newcastle 6f Betfred "Supports Jack Berry House" Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Selections:

Ekhtiyaar 2 points to win at 11/2 BOG with Betfair and Paddypower

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Ekhtiyaar – 125
2) Summerghand – 122
2) Visionary – 122

Race analysis:
Summerghand has been improving but would need a career best to win this, as his previous wins have been at a lower level. He does go well on the all-weather surfaces with 2/4 win rate. The stable has struggled for form last season and has not shown much sign of a revival this season, so best watched.

Visionary has won at listed level but has not shown much form-wise on his runs this season or towards the end of last season. He has dropped down the weights but even with his decent claimer taking off seven pounds I do not think he will win. The best Visionary can do is probably a place.

Ekhtiyaar has not run on the all-weather before but his breeding suggests it should suit him. Ekhtiyaar is a very talented horse and despite disappointing last time, I think this looks a lot easier. Ekhtiyaar has won better races than this and if on form could be very hard to beat. I have gone win only as if he runs below form he won’t place but if he’s on song I think he should win.

12.55 Newcastle 6f Betfred TV Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Cardsharp 1 point each way at 10/1 BOG generally

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Cardsharp – 99
2) Top Score – 94
2) Yafta – 94

Race analysis:
Yafta is very consistent but his form is at a lower level; however, he is 1/1 on all-weather tracks and should be in the mix at the finish. I do think that Yafta has talent and is capable of more improvement.

Top Score was on good form in Meydan earlier in the year winning a decent handicap and he has also won at Listed level. Top Score has all his best form at 7 furlongs and 1 mile and I am not convinced he will have the outright speed to win at 6 furlongs.

Cardsharp is a very talented 3-year-old, who only finished just over 6 lengths behind the winner of the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. He has already placed at Group 1 level and won at Group 2 level, so he is more than capable of winning this. Mark Johnston is very successful with two and three-year-olds and Cardsharp looks particularly good. Hopefully, he will prove an ace up our sleeve to carry on with the card theme over the last few days!

1.30 Newcastle 2m½f (2m56y) Betfred Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race For The Northumberland Plate) (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Dannyday 1 point each way at 15/2 BOG with Skybet (6 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) The Grand Visir – 186
2) Dannyday – 180
3) Euchen Glen – 175
4) Silver Concorde – 172

Race analysis:
We backed The Grand Visir when he won when upped in trip last time and although I do think he has more improvement to come the Haggas stable is going through an indifferent spell so we will look elsewhere.

Silver Concorde is now ten years old and makes his all-weather debut, but he has looked out of sorts over hurdles and is not likely to feature here.

Euchen Glen won well last Saturday and carries a five pound penalty as a result, which is likely to scupper his chances of winning this race. He has not won on the all-weather in two attempts and that coupled with the penalty puts me off his chances.

Other threats include Financial Conduct and Mirsaale.

Dannyday won this race in 2016 before a break of 700 days and the unkindest cut of all. He has only had the two runs since his return one was over too short a trip and the other was at Royal Ascot over four furlongs further, which is probably beyond his limit. I thought that run was encouraging and back at this trip he should go very close. The stable is in fantastic form and I expect Dannyday to improve again.

1.45 Newmarket 7f (July) Betway Criterion Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Tabarrak – 65
2) Dutch Connection – 63
3) Sir Dancealot – 61

Race analysis:
A decent enough field for this Group 3, but no value to be had and it may become tactical. No Bet.

2.05 Newcastle 2m½f (2m56y) Stobart Rail & Civils Northumberland Plate Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Time To Study 1 point each way at 18/1 BOG with Skybet (6 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Time To Study – 177
2) Island Brave – 173
3) Watersmeet – 166
4) Amazing Red – 162

Race analysis:
Island Brave is a decent stayer, but I think he is probably drawn a bit wide and those extra yards could make him pay the penalty in the latter stages of this gruelling handicap.

Watersmeet is another decent stayer, but at seven is older than ideal and is also drawn reasonably wide. He disappointed on his last start, but he is a tough horse and it would be no surprise to see him place.

Amazing Red was the last one I ruled out and that is not the horses fault it is more about me not rating the trainer. Amazing Red has a five pounds penalty to cope with which is also not ideal and I think he will place but not win.

Higher Power won this race last year and although he now carries only one pound more which makes him dangerous. He excels on all weather tracks and looks to have been saved for a repeat performance. Howedver this looks a very hard race to win back to back.

Time To Study is far too big a price as he is proven at a higher level, plus he will stay. At four years old he is likely to have more improvement to come and his second in the Sagaro Stakes and a good fifth in the Chester Cup mark him out as a very decent stayer. He has a decent draw and if he is thereabouts entering the final furlong I expect him to go very close at a big price.

2.55 Newmarket 1m4f (July) Betway Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Dylan Mouth – 47
2) Second Step – 44
3) Crimson Rosette – 41

Race analysis:
A very disappointing turnout and nothing stands out for betting purposes so no bet.

3.05 Chester 7f (7f1y) Matthew Clark Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-100)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Crossing The Line – 37
2) Viscount Loftus – 34
3) Dragons Tail – 33

Race analysis:
There is not much point in owners and trainers complaining about prizemoney when only four are declared for an £11K+ race. No bet as this is likely to turn out to be a sprint in the final 200 metres.

3.20 York 1m2½f (1m2f56y) sunbets.co.uk Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-105)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Poet’s Prince – 53
1) Communique – 53
1) Beringer – 53

Race analysis:
A bit of a recurring theme today with yet another small field, which is made even more complicated with three of the six runners tying as top rated. No Bet.

4.45 Windsor 1m (1m31y) Geoff Cramman Memorial Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Poet’s Dream – 52
2) Bronze Angel – 49
2) Brittanic – 49

Race analysis:
The three-year-old Poet’s Dream has a big advantage at the weights and is the most likely winner; however, he is very unlikely to be a value price. Again, the small field is likely to result in a muddling pace, so no guarantee of a truly run race. No Bet.