Cleeve members selections – Saturday 23rd September

Hi everyone,
Our only selection today was Danehill Kodiac due to the postponement of Ayr. He ran OK but I thought the use of different tactics holding him up may have cost him the race, as he took quite a while to get going from 3 furlongs out and was finishing best off all, but a well judged ride by Keiran Shoemark made full use of Blakeney Points stamina to hold on by 3/4 of a length.

It also won't have helped that he got loose before the start and decided to have a look around Newbury on his own! Ayr Gold Cup day has already been cancelled but we still have plenty of action to get stuck into, so let's get down to business...

Good luck,
The team at Cleeve

2.15 Newbury 1m3f Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) (Formerly The Arc Trial) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Second Step 2 points to win at 4/1 general

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Dylan Mouth – 101
2) Desert Encounter – 100
3) Second Step – 94

Race analysis:
Desert Encounter is probably capable of winning this having finished third in a Group 1 race two runs back being beaten by 3 lengths behind Ulysses. But he has yet to win above Listed class and the stable is having a cold spell so we will give him a miss this time.

Dylan Mouth was top rated last time when he won at 25/1 and I had ignored him due to the poor stable form and the fact was he had never won outside of Italy. He won well last time in handicap company but this is much tougher and I think he will struggle to place.

Second Step has been back in form since switching stables to Roger Charlton, not being out of the first three this season. Second Step won at Listed level last time and more comfortably than the 2 ½ lengths suggests. In 2015, he won at both Group 1 and 2 levels and it looks to me that he is coming back to that form again. If he continues his improvement this season he should win this.

2.50 Newbury 6f Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo)

Selections:

Staxton 0.5 points each way at 16/1 with Coral

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Invincible Army – 95
2) Enjazaat – 90
3) Staxton – 89

Race analysis:
Enjazaat won a Listed race at Ripon last time and represents a serious threat here, but does need to improve further to win this. I think he represents the biggest threat to our selection.

Invincible Army finished second in the Gimcrack before winning the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes last time at Kempton. He finished about three lengths ahead of Staxton in the Gimcrack which makes their respective prices of 5/2 and 14/1 look a bit off.
Staxton does need to improve to win this but his price looks to be excellent value, but due to the multiple threats I have kept the staking to a minimum. I do expect Staxton to improve as his run in the Gimcrack was his first try in Group company and his profile is very progressive. When you see value like this it is always wise to play even though you won’t win all the time, but long term you will make a profit.

3.10 Newmarket 2m2f (Row) Betfred Cesarewitch Trial Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Time To Study 1 point each way at 6/1 with SkyBet (5 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Time To Study – 193
2) Who Dares Wins – 169
3) Sternrubin – 168
4) Taws – 166

Race analysis:
A return to form by Who Dares Wins would put him in the mix here, but he has looked out of sorts this season and is best watched at present.

Sternrubin has been running well in low class handicaps with five runs on the flat this season winning twice. He has won for us on a couple of occasions over hurdles and has a game attitude. Unfortunately, he is not at the same level on the flat so it is hard to see him winning this.

Taws has a good winning record on the flat, but it is going to take a career best performance to win this. I do think he has place claims, but others should have quicker pace at the business end of the race.

Coeur De Lion could be a dark horse here and he is priced accordingly, but he represents little value on what he has achieved to date on the flat.

Time To Study is only three years old but is the second highest official rated horse in the race. He is improving with every run and like most of Mark Johnston’s horses he runs frequently having won last weekend. I do expect him to improve again and if he wins this I would not be surprised if Godolphin do not purchase him as he has loads of promise.

3.25 Newbury 1m2f Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Teodoro 1 point each way at 10/1 with SkyBet (5 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Teodoro – 172
2) Snoano – 164
3) Banksea – 154
4) Fidaawy – 146

Race analysis:
Snoano is weighted to the hilt, but did win a decent race at Royal Ascot and is slowly dropping back to that winning mark. He is a horse which needs everything to fall right for him to show his best form, and with this big field that is unlikely to happen, although I do think he is overpriced.

Fidaawy is still progressive, but I think the drop in trip and the five pounds penalty will result in him placing rather than winning this race. Fidaawy is most likely going to progress past handicap level, but this looks tough under the circumstances.

Banksea has struggled in his last two races off his present mark, and I am not convinced that the step up in trip will help him. I think he will struggle until he drops four or five pounds below this mark and drops back to a mile.

Teodoro is in fantastic form and has won his last three races progressing from Class 5 to winning a Class 2 last time. He is a front running sort and is likely to be pressed for the lead by Fidaawy, ultimately, I think Teodoro’s advantage at the weights will prove crucial in the latter stages. I think Teodoro will win this unless the battle with Fidaawy causes both to blow up.

4.00 Newbury 5f (5f34y) Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Caspian Prince 1 point each way at

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Judicial – 161
2) Take Cover – 158
3) Muthmir – 157
4) Caspian Prince – 143

Race analysis:
Muthmir is one of the most talented horses in the race, which I thought at one point would be winning at the highest level, but he has proved frustrating. Muthmir has been in decent form this season with cheekpieces reapplied, but disappointed last time at Group 3 level. I do expect him to go close but not win.

Take Cover is now ten, but is having one of his best seasons winning twice at Listed level. Take Cover does like to lead but there are other contenders for the lead in the race and he may burn out Judicial due to the multiple challengers.

Judicial has a fantastic win record, but all his wins have been at a lower level and this looks particularly tough for a Group 3. I do think Judicial has the potential to improve and if he runs to his best he could run into a minor place.

Caspian Prince has a touch of class having already won at Group 2 level this season and having run Caravaggio close on unsuitably soft ground at the Curragh last time. If the ground quickens up I expect Caspian Prince to defy his penalty for his Group 2 win.

4.45 Catterick 1m4f (1m4f13y) La Fille Rouge And Jojo Hats Handicap (Catterick Twelve Furlong Series Final) (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Je Suis Charlie – 72
2) Mukhiyas – 71
3) Airton – 69

Race analysis:
Too close to call in really a poor Class 2, so no bet.