Hi everyone,

it may sound strange but I was not too disappointed with today's selections even though we came out with just over a point loss. Both ran creditably and when Dalton hit the front just before the furlong pole I thought we had the winner but he was swallowed up in the final stages to finish 5th. Our other runner Equitation was only just over length out of the places.

We go into battle again with selections from Ayr and Newbury and let's hope we can get back in the winner's enclosure.

Good luck,
The team at Cleeve

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1.25 Ayr 1m QTS British Stallion Studs EBF Nursery Handicap (Class 2) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Iconic Choice – 105
2) Billy No Mates – 97
3) Kilbarchan – 96

Race analysis:
I can see why Billy No Mates is as short as he is after his latest nursery win and he will be suited by this step up in trip. Kilbarchan has winning form at this level but was found wanting in a Group 3 over in Germany, also the Johnston yard is a bit cool at the moment.
I like our top-rated Iconic Choice who was left too much to do last time out and is back up in trip which I think will suit. but I do not like betting in Nursery Handicaps with too many question marks. No Bet.

1.45 Newbury 1m2f Dubai Duty-Free Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Pivoine 1 point each way a 6/1 BOG Betvictor (4 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Pivoine – 133
2) Original Choice – 118
3) Exhort – 115

Race analysis:
Exhort has a chance of turning the tables on our selection on their running at York; however, I think our selection has more improvement to come even though both are well in at the weights.
Original Choice is a very steady handicapper but lacks that finishing kick to win more races. He certainly has place claims, but unless there is a deluge (which is forecast for late afternoon) I do not think he can win this.

Pivoine has an in-form trainer and jockey and despite a five pounds penalty he is still well in at the weights. He does have a lot of weight, but I believe there is more improvement to come and he copes with any going so no worries if the rain comes earlier.

2.00 Ayr 1m William Hill Supporting The Fight Against Parkinson's Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Borderforce 1 point each way at 7/1 BOG Skybet (4 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Borderforce – 116
2) Borodin – 102
3) Porth Swtan – 100

Race analysis:
Waarif could be dangerous especially as the stable has started firing in winners in the last couple of days, but I do think others have more class.

Porth Swtan went up four pounds for his last win and is now seeking a hat trick, but this looks to be a tougher race. The stable has been in decent form in the last two weeks and a place is certainly possible.

Borodin won well last time in a Class 3, but disappointed in his only try at Class 2. He is the second three-year-old in the race along with Porth Swtan and his lack of experience makes him vulnerable here so I do not understand his forecast price.

Borderforce won well for us last time at a huge price and although his forecast price is higher than I expected it is a lot lower than last time. He has shown form on heavy ground and can add to Andrew Balding’s great run of late. Borderforce has only gone up two pounds and now he has won in the UK he can continue that winning run here.

2.20 Newbury 1m3f Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) (Formerly The Arc Trial) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Desert Encounter – 64
2) Young Rascal – 63
2) Mirage Dancer – 63

Race analysis:
This should be a good race to watch but there is no betting opportunity, with our top three rated very close together. They fill the first 3 in the betting and with just the 7 runners there is no real ew opportunity so no selection.

2.40 Ayr 6f William Hill Ayr Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Cold Stare 1 point each way at 11/1 BOG Skybet (6 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Snazzy Jazzy – 199
2) Cold Stare – 193
2) Bengali Boys – 193
4) Louie De Palma – 186

Race analysis:
Louie De Palma had won his first two races as a two year old but has been well beaten on his two latest starts. I do think there is improvement to come, but he may need to fill his frame a bit more before winning.

Bengali Boys is top weight due his win in the Weatherbys Super Sprint last year, but he does not appear to have trained on as a three-year-old. The ground may help, and I do expect him to challenge here.

Snazzy Jazzy is another that does not seem to have trained on and despite having decent speed it is hard to see him winning on the evidence of his three-year-old form.

Cold Stare won last time in a Class 3 on soft over 7 furlongs and I think this ground will require a lot of getting and that will assist him. David O’Meara has had an indifferent couple of months but started firing in winners in the last few days.

2.55 Newbury 6f Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Marie’s Diamond – 79
2) Garrus – 77
3) The Irish Rover – 73

Race analysis:
This looks to be a good renewal, but it is a race to watch not to bet in. No Bet.

3.15 Ayr 6f William Hill Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (For The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) (Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Queen Of Bermuda – 106
2) Little Kim – 103
3) Kodyanna – 98
3) Second Generation – 98

Race analysis:
I do think the winner will come from our top four listed above, but I could not separate them. This is a good race to watch for winners for next season, but we will keep hold of our cash. No Bet.

3.30 Newbury 5f (5f34y) Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Take Cover – 120
2) Sioux Nation – 118
3) Judicial – 111

Race analysis:
I do like Sioux Nation in this but could not put him up as a bet as he does not win often enough for any confidence. No Bet.

3.50 Ayr 6f William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Gunmetal 1 point each way at 14/1 Skybet (7 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Gunmetal – 226
2) Ice Age – 199
3) Summerghand – 181
4) Brian The Snail – 170

Race analysis:
Brian The Snail has not had the best of seasons and that reflects the stable form. He does have ability, but I think it is unlikely he can win this despite the stable just winning the Bronze Cup.

Ice Age has a pull at the weights with Gunmetal, but I think our selection has a better chance here. Based on the Bronze Cup Ice Age is drawn on the wrong side and may struggle to place.

Summerghand has his best form in a lower class but does meet a lot of the trends for this race and may run into a place. He does handle the going and will be a real threat if he can keep up with the pace and his trainer is adept at getting a horse ready for a target.

Gunmetal is high enough in the weights but this race is getting more and more competitive and is generally won by an improving type. Winners in recent years have tended to go forward and win at Group level and I think Gunmetal is just such a horse. His form this season has been very impressive especially winning his last start comfortably. My main fear is if he will cope with the going but the fact he stays 7 furlongs will definitely be an advantage.

4.10 Catterick 1m4f (1m4f13y) Bapp Group Of Companies Handicap (Catterick Twelve Furlong Series Final) (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Star Of The East – 62
1) New Society – 62
3) Question Of Faith – 54

Race analysis:
I think the winner will be between our top two rated. Star of the East is far too short for me with, as I said earlier the yard on the cool side at the moment. My slight preference would be for New Society who is a course and distance winner and also has won on the ground but I couldn’t make a strong enough case to put him up as a selection.

4.25 Ayr 1m2f William Hill Leading Racecourse Bookmaker Handicap (For The Kilkerran Cup) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Contango – 78
2) Delph Crescent – 77
3) Collide – 74

Race analysis:
Another race that is too close to call so best left alone. No Bet.