Cleeve members selections – Saturday 17th November

Hi everyone,

We didn't have a selection today but from some of your emails I know a few of you backed Kingswell Theatre today so well done if you did.

Finians Oscar was another winner for the Ten to Follow and he picked up really well after the last giving away 8lbs. His jumping wasn't a 100% but that he will improve again.

In the juvenile On the Blindside was quite impressive, making up ground after the last to win with ears pricked and looks like one to follow.

So we move onto day two of the Open meeting at Cheltenham and we have 3 selections to get stuck into so lets get down to it...

God luck,
The team at Cleeve

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12.40 Cheltenham 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (3yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Gumball – 56
2) Eragon De Chanay – 54
3) Speedo Boy – 49
3) Apple’s Shakira – 49
3) Apparition – 49

Race analysis:
This is the equivalent of a two year old race on the flat, and although Gumball should win based on all known form there are a couple of unexposed types to be wary of – especially Apple’s Shakira. No Bet.

 

1.15 Cheltenham 3m½f (3m80y) (Old) mallardjewellers.com Novices' Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Black Corton – 28
2) Ballyoptic – 27
3) West Approach – 23

Race analysis:
Another race with a poor entry and anyone of the three could win. No Bet.

1.50 Cheltenham 3m3½f (3m3f71y) (Old) BetVictor.com Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Selections:

Minella Rocco 2 points to win at 5/1 William Hills and Betvictor

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Vicente – 86
2) Three Faces West – 83
3) Minella Rocco – 79

Race analysis:
Vincente seems to be better over marathon trips these days having won the Scottish National in 2016 and 2017. He has won at this meeting in 2015, but without a run this is a big ask especially bearing in mind his early season form last year.

Three Faces West is likely to need the run plus is unproven at Graded level, but I do think he will at Graded level this season. If he had had a run I think he would be value at 3/1 but not coming back from a break.

Sizing Cadelco is one of our Ten to Follow. He was disappointing last time at Chepstow and there may have been something amiss so he has to show he is back to form before we can back him,

Minella Rocco – another of our Ten to Follow this season – was second in the Gold Cup last season and stamina is his forte, so the additional distance of this race should benefit him. Looking at the ground today it looks like it is riding soft rather than good to soft and that could play into Minella Rocco’s hooves. If he jumps well and Barry Geraghty gets him into a rhythm early I think he can win this, as he wills trip fitter than his seasonal debut where he looked to be not fully wound up.

2.25 Cheltenham 2m4½f (2m4f78y) (Old) BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Selections:

Kylemore Lough 1.5 points each way at 13/2 Bet365 (5 places with 1/4 odds a place)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Kylemore Lough – 164
2) Plaisir D’Amour – 154
3) Foxtail Hill – 151
3) Le Prezien – 151

Race analysis:
I think the winner will come from the top four rated and this looks to be a top class renewal of this race.

Plaisir D’Amour is a very big price for horse that has already won a Listed race and has won at Cheltenham. He is young at five and it would be no surprise to see him one of these big handicaps in 2018. I do like his attitude and interestingly all his jumps wins have come post-Christmas, so he is hard to fancy first time out.

Foxtail Hill looked impressive winning here making all last time over two miles. He has won here over 2 miles five furlongs so the step up in trip should not prove problematic. I think he will have trouble dominating from the front in this better race, but he will certainly ensure that there is a good pace from the start.

Le Prezien was tempting judged by his decent run behind Foxtail Hill last time where he lost by a neck and is now a pound better off. My main concern about him is him winning over this trip as the furthest he has managed to win is a couple of furlongs shorter than this.

Kylemore Lough won a Novice Grade 1 beating Outlander, which won the James Nicholson Chase at Down Royal this season. He didn’t win last season which probably resulted in him moving from Kerry Lee to Harry Fry. Harry Fry is adept at preparing horses to win first time, especially in decent races. Despite not having won in four starts last term Kylemore Lough has won 8/16 and that is the type of horse we want to be backing. I have gone each way due to him being off course for 225 days, but I do think he will win.

3.00 Cheltenham 3m1½f (3m1f67y) (Old) Regulatory Finance Solutions Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Selections:

Rocky’s Treasure 1 point each way at 13/2 Paddypower and Betfair

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Rocky’s Treasure – 80
2) Rolling Maul – 79
3) Thomas Campbell – 78

Race analysis:
Thomas Campbell is a worthy favourite on known form, but his price is very skinny for a horse that hasn’t yet convinced me he is that brilliant. James Bowen taking off 7 pounds of the ten pounds he has bene raised for his recent win is a strong booking is a plus, but not enough for me to back him.

Rolling Maul is well held by the favourite and is an infrequent winner nowadays. Richard Johnson being booked is a plus as he will try and tuck Rolling Maul in behind and coax him round. Even with the Champion jockey up I think he has place claims at very best if he doesn’t sulk.

Kk Lexion and Connetable are probably the main challengers for the places but I don’t think either are capable of winning.

Rocky’s Treasure has only had four runs under rules winning his last two races impressively. Kim Bailey is back in form and if anything is going to beat Thomas Campbell I think Rocky has the most potential to improve. If the ten pounds rise is too much for the favourite I think Rocky can pass him going up the hill; however, as this is his first attempt at this level I think caution in the best approach.