Hi everyone,

Nothing to report on regarding selections and so far we haven't actually had a selection this week with non-runners being the modus operandi grrrr.

Let's hope we can get some action tomorrow, but with the great British weather doing its damndest to make things difficult let's hope our selections actually make it to the stalls or there aren't other non-runners that make the fields small enough to affect places or a mockery of the prices with rule 4;s - sorry for the whinge but it has been extremely frustrating of late.

We have analysed 9 races but 4 of them have only 6 runners or less declared and we come up with 3 selections from Ripon and Doncaster.

Good luck,
The team at Cleeve

1.50 Newbury 7f (Str) Denford Stakes (Listed Race) (formerly The Washington Singer Stakes) (Class 1) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Thunderous – 52
2) Juan Elcano – 51
3) Sesame Birah – 50

Race analysis:
A poor turnout for a listed race. The Frankel Colt Juan Elcano brings the best form into the race and is the one to beat after his second in a Group 2 last time out but at forecast odds on is no value especially with 2 Johnston runners and Sun Power from the Hannon yard aiming to repeat the yards winning of this last year. A good race to watch but not to bet in. No Bet.

2.05 Ripon 6f William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap (Consolation Race For The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes) (Class 2)

Selections:

Flying Pursuit 1 point each way at 8/1 Skybet (6 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Airglow – 172
2) Mark’s Choice – 165
3) Royal Prospect – 162
4) Tawny Port – 157

Race analysis:
The top four rated all have question marks against them for various reasons as I have outlined below, so we will look elsewhere:

Airglow – never won above Class 4 and has a high draw, which can be a disadvantage on ground slower than good.

Mark’s Choice – has not won above Class 4, stable not going well and needs better going.

Royal Prospect – never run at this level and only won narrowly in a lower class last time plus the stable is cold presently.

Tawny Port – has never won at this class, has a high draw and has never won off this mark.

That led me to look outside the top four and settled on course and distance winner Flying Pursuit, which has won at this level and is now five pounds below his last winning mark. He will handle the going and his draw could prove to be an advantage and his price is good value for a horse proven in better races than this.

2.25 Newbury 1m5½f (1m5f61y) Unibet Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Morando – 45
2) Sextant – 44
3) Technician – 43

Race analysis:
Another poor turnout and only three points separate the top four of only five runners. No Bet.

2.40 Ripon 6f William Hill Ripon Hornblower Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 2) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Eton College – 48
2) Ventura Lightning – 46
3) Wots The Wifi Code – 43

Race analysis:
Only five runners again and no value to be had. One to watch for future winners. No Bet.

2.50 Doncaster 7f (7f6y) Alan Smith Memorial Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Motafaawit 2 points win at 9/2 Betfair, Betvictor and Paddypower

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Motafaawit – 103
2) That Is The Spirit – 96
3) Breanski – 92
3) Double Kodiac – 92

Race analysis:
Double Kodiac has not run since April, he may need the race and could pull too hard in the early stages and run out of steam in the final stages.

Breanski is a lot more exposed than most of these, and despite winning the equivalent of this race last season is probably outclassed here. He runs from outside of the handicap and that makes this especially tough.

That Is The Spirit is  now 8 years old and is fully exposed. He has been on a downward spiral since he won a Listed race in 2015 and has not won above Class 3 since. Hard to see him winning this and it will be hard to see him place.

Motafaawit is a three-year-old and is likely to be still improving unlike, but has already won at this level on his second start. I expect him to get back to winning ways here before going on to bigger things later in his career. Both the stable and the jockey are in form – especially Jim Crowley and they can put their older rivals to the sword here.

3.15 Ripon 6f William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Gunmetal 1 point each way at 14/1 Skybet and Paddypower (6 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Gunmetal – 159
2) Belated Breath – 151
3) Lahore – 145
4) Dakota Gold – 133

Race analysis:
Dakota Gold is the favourite in the early price lists despite having finished second behind our selection in this race last season and is now worse off at the weights. He does come into the race in form and could be our selections biggest threat if his draw is not too problematic.

Lahore has been generally disappointing this season prior to winning a Class 3 race here last time. He has gone up three pounds for that win and is running in a much better race this time. Lahore does have scope to improve, but all his wins to date have been in single figure fields.

Belated Breath has a good winning strike rate but is well above his last winning mark and has never won above Class 3. From his draw he could find it difficult to place and the stable has not been firing of late.

Gunmetal does have top weight but won this last year off four pounds lower and if the rains change the ground, he could have a very good draw here. His price looks to be good value and dropping in the weights should help his cause here.

3.20 Newmarket 7f (July) Unibet Fillies' Nursery Handicap (Class 2) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Graceful Magic – 75
2) Go Well Spicy – 74
3) Mild Illusion – 69
3) Constanzia – 69

Race analysis:
Too close to call so a race best to watch not to bet in. No Bet.

3.35 Newbury 7f (Str) Unibet Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Sir Dancelot – 74
1) Safe Voyage – 74
3) Flaming Spear – 65

Race analysis:
A very good race but I could not split the top two rated so not a betting opportunity. The secret in this game is not having a bet for the sake of having some action… as that is the path to poverty. No Bet.

3.55 Newmarket 6f (July) Unibet Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-105)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Dazzling Dan – 86
2) Aplomb – 83
3) Dave Dexter – 80

Race analysis:
The winner is likely to come from the top three rated, but I could not find any value for a bet. No Bet.

4.30 Newmarket 1m6f (July) TBA Supporting British Breeders Fillies' Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) I’ll Have Another – 55
1) Jedhi – 55
1) Oydis – 55

Race analysis:
The ratings are self-explanatory regarding the reason for not having a bet in this race – only six runners and three tied at the top. No Bet.