Hi everyone,

The very impressive Muharrar guaranteed us a profit on day 4 (that's 4 profitable days on the bounce!), and we hope you backed Illuminate in the first even though she wasn't an official selection.

I felt Lucida was slightly unlucky not to win and was primarily beaten by the draw and Watersmeet ran well but was one place off a pay out. And in the finale I couldn't believe the 3/1 Aloft drifted to so we hope you smashed into that too!

We will be back on Monday with a full analysis of the meeting.

On with the final day analysis...

Best wishes,

The Cleeve team

14:30 - 7f Class 1 Chesham Stakes (Listed)

Selections:

No selection

Race Analysis:

The  most likely winner here is Tonkinese whose debut run behind Air Force Blue was franked when that horse finished 2nd in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes on Tuesday. However plenty these are still developing and an outsider has won the past two renewals of this.

More of a race to watch with an eye to the future than to get heavily involved in.

15.05 - 1m 2f class 1 Wolferton Handicap (Listed) (4yo plus)

Selections:

Ayrad 1 point e/w @ 16/1 with Paddy Power and Betvictor

Race Analysis:

Cleeve had the 14/1 winner of this last year with Contributer and we’re looking for a similar type this time round… i.e. a horse that’s been dropped in class.

Ayrad  is young, progressive and a was a winner last time out and fits the bill for trainer Roger Varian and Frankie Dettori’s on board. This son of Dalakhani has raced just 8 times, winning twice in a maiden then when upped in class last time out in a listed event over 12 furlongs at Goodwood.

A quick look back at his 3 year old form shows he was very highly thought of as he ran in both the Group One French Derby and the Champion Stakes over course and distance when the ground was unsuitably heavy.

Most of the others are handicappers at best and Ayrad can prove a class above them from a good draw in stall 8. It’s his first run on proper fast ground but his knee action is not that pronounced so he should cope well enough.

15.40 - 1m 4f class 1 Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (4yo plus)

Selections:

Postponed 2 points win @ 7/2 generally

Race Analysis:

This is a much more competitive race than last year when Telescope won comprehensively. This time round he has 2 or 3 proper improving horses to beat in Eagle Top, Postponed & stable companion Snow Sky. Saying that Telescope is still the one to beat and he won most impressively last time out at Newbury on Lockinge Stakes day.

At the prices a very strong case can be made for both Eagle Top and Postponed with Snow Sky a lively outsider. But taking a line through Western Hymn who finished 3rd in the Group One St James Palace Stakes on Wednesday, we will nail our colours to Postponed rather than Eagle Top.

Postponed beat Snow Sky in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York last August, really appreciating the mile and a half trip. Luca Cumani knew then he had a proper mile and a half horse and has nurtured him along this season running over 10 furlong trips where he was vulnerable to horses like Western Hymn and Al Kazeem who posses a better turn of foot.
Today he steps back up to his ideal trip of 12 furlongs and has good to firm ground which suits. He doesn’t need to lead like he was forced to  at the Curragh last time out, so don’t worry about his draw in stall 8.

In a fascinating Hardwicke Stakes look to Postponed to test Telescopes battling abilities!

16.20 - 6f class 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) (4yo plus)

Selections:

1 point e/w Tropics @ 14/1 (already advised antepost)

Race Analysis:

Aussie horse Brazen Beau is the jolly here and he brings the highest rating to the race being assessed at 121 over here. The ground will be in his favour and he is in great shape but at 11/4 is priced too short. We’d rather side with an each way strike in this most competitive of races having already advised Tropics.

We’re happy with the selection who arrives here in the form of his life. However, Aidan O’Brien has his string in rude health this week and Due Diligence ran a huge race drawn low last year when 2nd to Slade Power. Dermot Welds Mustajeeb won the Jersey Stakes over 7 furlongs at this meeting last season and looked very comfortable back in sprints winning easily at the Curragh recently.

All in all it’s a cracking race and may the best horse win in what is a truly international race with Australian, USA, Irish and GB trained horses in the line up!

17.00 - 6f class 2 Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (3yo plus)

Selections:

Gamesome 1 point e/w @ 14/1 Intrinsic 1 point e/w @ 14/1 (back with a bookie paying 5 places)

Race Analysis:

A massively competitive 6 furlong handicap which 3 years ago gave Cleeve had it’s biggest ever winner in Dandy Boy who paying 69/1 on  Betfair!

The horse we were originally interested in was Tatlisu, who ran a very eye catching race at York last time out and has been backed from 25’s before final declarations down to 12/1 due to the booking of Ryan Moore. So we shall look elsewhere as most of the pace is drawn middle to low and Moore’s mount comes out of stall 26.

Gamesome has a plum draw in stall 5 if things work out like the other big field handicaps this week where the far side held sway. Atzeni was less than harsh on this fast finishing horse when 5th behind Eastern Impact in a very competitive Newmarket handicap last time out. He has only had the 7 starts with a couple of them in Listed and Group 3 events. As a progressive four year old he surely arrives here with a few pounds up his sleeve and looks primed for a big run.

Intrinsic has had a few niggling issues early this season which is why he has not been seen on the track. Trainer Robert Cowell thinks very highly of the horse and worked him 2 weeks ago before deciding to allow him take his chance. Last season he won over course and distance on good to soft in May before progressing to win the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood on good/firm ground. Thereafter his form tapered off but he arrives here a fresh horse having had just 11 starts, winning four of those.

Richard Hughes who won on him in the Stewards Cup on Intrinsic again takes the ride, and Robert Cowell who took the Group 1 King Stands Stakes with Goldream on Tuesday is one of the best at peaking top class sprinters to win. Intrinsic is drawn high in stall 29 and maybe that is where the best of the ground will be tomorrow with no watering planned tonight.

17.35 - 2m 5f 159y class 2 Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (4yo plus)

Selections:

No selection

Race Analysis:

With Ryan Moore up for Willie Mullins for whom he has a ridiculous strike rate of over 70%, added to which the pair took this race last year with Pique Sous… Wicklow Brave is sure to be very short here,  but if you are playing multiples you may want to include him.

Marzocco takes a fair drop in class here (5th in last years St Ledger), and if he gets the trip he looks interesting each way play.