Cleeve members selections – Goodwood Day5
Hi Everyone,
just the one place today which knocked a dent in the forward momentum from yesterday. Our only return was from Donncha who finished a creditable third behind the well backed FranklinD
Mount Logan ran out of steam at the 2 furlong marker and was never going to trouble the judge I was quite disappointed with his run as all his previous efforts at Goodwood have been winning ones.
Emotionless ran a stinker. To be honest I was concerned as at one point during the day he had drifted markedly in the betting out to 5/1 but eventually went off 10/3 second fav. But the money was down for Thikryaat who duly obliged.
So virtually back to square one for the meeting and we go again tomorrow
Good luck
The team at Cleeve
2.00 Goodwood Qatar Stewards´ Sprint Stakes (Handicap) (Consolation Race for The Qatar Stewards´ Cup) (CLASS 2) (3yo+)
Selections:
Race Analysis:
Top 4 Rated:
1) Projection
2) Dougan
3) Nuno Tristan
4) Lightning Charlie
I am hoping that the draw bias continues to favour lower numbers in the six furlong races as some of the leading fancies find themselves drawn high. That of course could mean that the pace is with the high draws but I think it gives us value elsewhere.
Projection and Dougan are drawn beside each other in 22 and 21 respectively and that makes their task difficult. Projection is a very promising three year old which has the added skills of Ryan Moore. He finished a close 4th to our recent winner Dancing Star at Newmarket and a replication of that form should put him close here. I do think his draw will mean he fills one of the places or if no gaps appear is saved for another day.
Dougan has yet to win on turf but he has only run on that surface four times and has scope to improve. I do think he will win a big sprint in the next couple of seasons but not tomorrow.
Lightning Charlie was under serious consideration as he is very consistent; however he is going up significantly in class and has a 6 pounds penalty to cope with. I think he will show more improvement but will place at best.
Related is well down in our ratings but sometimes you look at a horse and get that gut feeling which is what I have here. He is back below his winning marks and was 9th in the Stewards Cup last season from an impossible draw finishing only 4 lengths behind the Group 2 winning Magical Memory. He has a better draw this time and looked to be returning to form last time finishing third behind Kimberella.
Nuno Tristan has been running over 7 furlongs and finished fifth in the International Stakes at Royal Ascot behind Librisa Breeze, but in my view he is better over 6 furlongs. His draw is a plus and his apprentice takes off five pounds which means he runs two pounds below his rating at Royal Ascot. I am hoping he gets a decent start and can make all and maximise his stamina.
2.35 Goodwood Qatar Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105)
Selections:
Race Analysis:
Top 4 Rated:
1) Move Up
2) Dal Harraild
3) Shabbah
4) Knights Table
A tough race with very little between the top three rated and very hard to decide between Dal Harraild and Shabbah hence the minimum stake.
Knights Table was very impressive winning his last race quickening nicely and that was the third win on the trot. Those races were at Class 4 and 5 and he has gone up 16 pounds since that run began. There could be more improvement to come as he is sired by Derby winner Sir Percy and holds a St. Leger entry.
Move Up has won three from five starts and is nicely bred; however that breeding suggests that he may struggle to get 1 mile 4 furlongs. If he does stay or the race becomes tactical then he is a player; however I do think that there will be enough pace to make this a true run race.
Shabbah finished ahead of our selection at Ascot three weeks ago in a decent Class 2 handicap and he almost caught the winner. If running to the same level again he will not be far away at the finish and he has Ryan Moore on board who has already won twice on Shabbah.
Dal Harraild narrowly failed to catch the front two at Ascot and I believe that was due to not getting a clear run 2 furlongs out. If he had got a clear run and not lost momentum I believe that he would have won the race.
The main threats outside the top four are likely to come from the Mark Johnston trained runners.
3.45 Goodwood Qatar Stewards´ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+)
Selections:
Race Analysis:
Top 4 Rated:
1) Dancing Star
2) Orion’s Bow
3) Ridge Ranger
4) Hoofalong
I have mentioned before about the use of trends analysis for this kind of race and I have used that coupled with our normal ratings algorithm.
Having run through twelve key trends and run the numbers I ended up with a short list of three: Orion’s Bow, Ridge Ranger and Moonraker.
Moonraker is a bit out of sorts off his present mark so I have passed him over and decided to spilt stakes on the other two.
Dancing Star and Spring Loaded were of interest but Dancing Star as a three year old filly has two negatives and Spring Loaded despite his 7th in the Wokingham has shown the bulk of his winning form on all-weather surfaces.
Orion’s Bow would have been the sole selection if his price was bigger, but as he is around 6/1 I decided to have a saver on Ridge Ranger. Both carry penalties for recent wins and both are potentially Group 1 sprinters in the making (Ridge Ranger won a Group 3 last time). Dandy Nicholls has a great record in the race and can add to his roll of winners.
4.55 Goodwood Qatar Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105)
Selections:
Race Analysis:
Top 4 Rated:
1) Bobby Wheeler
2) Hornsby
3) Venturous
4) Mamillius
The top two are well clear at the top of the ratings and both are promising types.
Hornsby finished third behind Galileo Gold as a two year old and ran third in a decent Class 2 handicap at Newmarket last time. James Doyle is in great form and I would expect he will be able to bring more improvement from the horse. If the horse settles he will have more energy in the final stages to use his speed.
Bobby Wheeler won a Class 3 last time and Clive Cox has been in great form this season and Frankie Dettori being booked is a big plus and a sign the horse is coming here with a good chance.
He is the fastest horse in the race on my figures and can continue his improvement here.
I spilt the stake as I was getting fed up getting to two selections and picking the wrong one and this race seemed to be another such clash!