Cleeve members selections- Goodwood Day2

Hi everyone

Well day one was not a complete disaster. We had 4 selections all EW and managed 2 places so we are down less than 3 points so far.

Revolutionist didn't run particularly well and dropped out very quickly to finish down the field. I was surprised to see he was a Pricewise horse and accordingly his price was much shorter that advised last night.
In the Lenox Stakes we had the first 3 in the ratings just the wrong way round! Gifted Master ran a creditable race from the front but in my view went off a bit too quick which set the race up for Dutch Connection, but as we played EW we made a small profit on the race.
In the 3:25 we had Notorised EW who was always up with the pace and at one point thought he was going to be completely swallowed up but battled on gamely all the way to line to be beaten by less than a length.
Finally we had Hey Chewd who was going well enough until the final furlong and was slightly checked and in a competitive such as this thats game over for any chance of a place.

Onwards and upwards......

Good luck

The team at Cleeve

2.00 Goodwood - Matchbook Betting Exchange Goodwood Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Selections:

Revision 1 point each way at 16/1 Ladbrokes and Corals 5 places generally 20/1 with 4 places

Race Analysis:

Top 4 Rated:
1) Moscato -126
2) Revision -121
3) The Cashel Man -116
4) Poyle Thomas -112

Frankly I think you could select any of the top four rated, but horses which have run on all-weather tracks prior to running here have a poor record.

Moscato, The Cashel Man and Poyle Thomas finished fourth, eight and second in the Northumberland Plate which was run on Tapeta for the first time this year. I am pretty sure all have place claims though. They are all much shorter odds as well so less scope for playing each way in a big field.

Other threats are Oceane and No Heretic from the jumps stables of Alan King and Nicky Henderson.

Revision is a bit speculative, but looks to have been saved for this having only had one start this season having had a successful season last year with five wins and two seconds in eight runs. He also has course form which is a major plus. His odds allow us to play each way and I am hopeful of a big run. He also handles ground of all types so if the predicted rain arrives he should cope with any change.

2.35 Goodwood - Beringice Gordon Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo)

Selections:

Steel of Madrid 0.5 points each way at 11/1 generally

Race Analysis:

Top 3 Rated:
1) Steel of Madrid -79
2) The Major General – 77
3) Qatari Hunter – 68

This is a trappy renewal of the Gordon Stakes with no standout performers, which is unusual for this race.

Sir Michael Stoute has an excellent record in the race and has two entries Ulysses and Platitude, which are also the top two in the betting. I do not believe that either will win as Derby runners (Ulysses) have a poor record and Platitude ran less than three weeks ago, which is a negative.

The Major General is held by Qatari Hunter and has been running consistently in lower level races and may well be running to create pace for Shogun. Shogun has been running in Group 1 races, but has been outclassed in those. He does have a chance here as I think this is more his level.

Qatari Hunter has won his last four races but they were all at handicap level and this is a huge step up. Jim Bolger is not daft and it would not surprise me to see this one place, as his trainer does not tend to run horses unless they have some chance.

Steel of Madrid finished fourth in the Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot on unsuitably soft ground and the return to quick ground could see him win this. He steps up in trip and judging by his performance in a Listed race at Newmarket he should stay the extra two furlongs. He has stamina on the dam’s side and his sire won at Group 1 level so he does have the potential to improve.

3.10 Goodwood - Qatar Sussex Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Top 3 Rated:
1) Galileo Gold -78
2) The Gurkha – 68
3) Awtaad -67

Great race in prospect and although I think Galileo Gold can beat The Gurkha again I do not think he offers value at 15/8

4.55 Goodwood - EBF Breeders´ Series Veuve Clicquot Fillies´ Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Kiltara 0.5 points each way at 20/1 generally

Race Analysis:

Top 3 Rated:
1) Kiltara -94
2) Shaan – 88
3) Sagely – 80

I was going to leave this filly’s handicap alone, but Kiltara was just too big a price to ignore.

Shaan in the likely favourite and has a good chance of winning if she continues her improvement following here recent win at a lower level.

Sagely was very disappointing last time, which could just be a blip but I would prefer to see her race again prior to putting her up as a selection.

Intimation on breeding and her connections suggest she should be decent, but she has not really shown much to date. Her two wins have been on good to soft and this might prove to be too quick for her.

Kiltara has been off course for 292 days and there is a danger she will not settle and will burn out prior to the final furlong. At her likely price it is worth having a minimum stake and she could lead from start to finish as she stays further than 1 mile 2 furlongs. If Frannie Norton gets her to settle she could well win at a big price and her jockey has a good record on the course. I can remember Mark Johnston running horses at Goodwood after a long break to protect their handicap mark and them winning at big prices and hopefully Kiltara is one of those.