Cleeve members selections – Goodwood Day1

Hi everyone,

Glorious Goodwood starts tomorrow and we are looking to have a profitable festival as we have been having great results during the week but just not firing on a Saturday for some reason. We obviuolsy have been doing things exactly the same way and as you have seen the ratings have been thereabouts but when we have gone for the value selection they have been coming up short.

We have 4 selections tomorrow all at decent EW prices so we are looking for a good return. Just a note one of our selections may well be a Pricewise selection. Pricewise gets released around 8pm (for online subscribers) so keep an eye on the market as if so it may well shorten considerably.

Good luck

The team at Cleeve

2.00 Goodwood - Matchbook Betting Exchange Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+)

Selections:

Revolutionist 1 point each way at 16/1 generally

Race Analysis:

Top 4 Rated:
1) Revolutionist – 116
2) Second Wave – 109
3) Erik the Red – 99
4) Mutamakkin – 98

Hopefully we can start the meeting with a big priced winner in this competitive handicap.
Mutamakkin has breeding on his dam’s side which suggest he should stay, but all his form to date has been about a mile. The quick ground will suit him; however the draw in one could result him running into traffic if he does not get a fast start.

Second Wave like our selection is near the top of the weights and he ran well when second in a Listed race on his seasonal return. That run showed that he stays and should mean he is competitive here.

Erik the Red has the eye catching booking of Ryan Moore, but the horse is better on a slower surface and may get caught for speed in the latter stages. He is very consistent and could well run into a place if he is able to keep in touch.

Bottom weight and fifth top rated is the most likely threat to our selection but his price is too short for me. He went up seven pounds for his recent win under Jamie Spencer but that was in a Class 5 race and he is unproven at this level. He does hold an Ebor entry and Luca Cumani is adept at bringing these middle distance handicappers on.

Revolutionist is high in the weights, but has a lot of ability in my view. Mark Johnston has a great record in this race and targets this meeting for winners. James McDonald has started to adapt to UK racing and seems to be able to get a horse to settle which is key at Goodwood especially in these handicaps.

3.10 Goodwood - Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Gifted Master 1 point each way at 8/1 generally

Race Analysis:

Top 3 Rated:
1) Gifted Master – 74
2) Home of the Brave – 73
3) Dutch Connection – 70

The winner is likely to come from the top three rated and the value lies with our selection.

Hugo Palmer trains both Home of the Brave and our selection and Home of the Brave is the likely market leader. He is a decent animal but has flopped at Group 2 level and was less than convincing when winning by a neck in a Group 3 contest.

Dutch Connection was second in this last year and has won at the course and that made him tempting here. He has had several tries at Group 2 and at Group 1 and is yet to win and that suggests to me he is just below this level. His price then becomes unattractive despite his course form.

Gifted Master is officially rated one pound below the top two in the betting but gets a seven pounds weight for age allowance. The weight allowance makes him a player in this and his price means that we get value for the place never mind the win. The quick ground will suit and he is a well-balanced horse so the idiosyncrasies’ of Goodwood should be OK too. The weight difference could make a huge plus in the latter stages of this race.

 

3.45 Goodwood - Better Odds with Matchbook Summer Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2)

Selections:

Notarised 1 point each way at 9/1 Corals, William Hills and Betfair

Race Analysis:

Top 4 Rated:
1) Notarised – 107
2) Tawdeea – 99
3) King Bolete – 96
4)Arch Villain – 95

Arch Villain was tempting as a course and distance winner and he has a first time visor on, which should help with his concentration. I do think he is better on the all-weather and despite the value price I have decided to look elsewhere.

King Bolete was the last horse I ruled out as he is in great form. He has won his last two starts, but I am not convinced he will stay the distance and his price is too short.

Tawdeea is held by both Gold Prince and King Bolete and appears to be better on soft ground. I do think he is capable of challenging but is likely to find one or two too good.

Gang Warfare is a threat but he has gone up in the weights significantly and is probably better on an all-weather surface.

Notarised is a course and distance winner which has dropped back to a winning mark. Joe Fanning rides Goodwood well and has a 16% strike rate at the course. He has a big pull at the weights with Tawdeea and the increase in trip from his Haydock run will suit, as will better going. I am not overly concerned with his recent form as he will have been prepared for this race.

4.20 Goodwood - Weatherbys Private Bank Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Hay Chewed 1.5 points each way at 14/1 Skybet, Totepsort or Betfred NB these are paying 5 places

Race Analysis:

Top 4 Rated:
1) Maljaa – 119
2) Thesme – 117
3) Hay Chewed – 107
4) Harry Hurricane -102

A tough sprint handicap to round off our day, but I think I have spotted one with a top class chance at very generous odds.

I do very much like Thesme in this but his price is too tight in a race of this type plus being drawn wide can be problematic. Frankie Dettori may drop him in behind the field and hope for a gap, but I will be more interested in him when he returns to York perhaps at the Ebor meeting.

Harry Hurricane has been well beaten the last twice and ran as if something was amiss. He has also run at Goodwood and Epsom on a few occasions with a best placed second, so the undulating nature of the course with camber may unbalance him.

Maljaa has top weight and all of his wins have been on left handed courses and he runs better with cut in the ground. I think he will place, but like Thesme his price is too skinny for us to play especially when there are questions to answer.

Hay Chewed is one of the opportunities I love spotting, as he has been running in higher class races on unsuitable going and now returns to his level on quick ground. His last run at a lower level appeared to be a sharpener for this race. He also has Joe Fanning up which is a major plus at Goodwood and his weight has dropped to four pounds below his last winning mark. I was very surprised by his price and it would not surprise me to see Pricewise going for him.
NB Use Skybet Totepsort or Betfred as they are the only bookmakers paying 5 Places