Hi everyone,

Some good racing at Ascot and York tomorrow, and we have 3 selections to go to war with.

The less said about last week the better. The deluge at Newbury turned the track into a bog and there were some very strange results, as always seems to be the case when the going changes there.

I had checked the Met Office's website on Friday night and the rain was not forecast. I pretty much knew our fate was sealed on Saturday and did think about mailing out to say hold fire, but most of you would already got your bets on the night before so it would not have been fair to all. This is the danger of posting out on a Friday night but we beat the market so regularly it is worth the odd reverse.  I would be interested to hear any comments you may have on this subject...

Naggers run the day before was too bad to be true as he was eased at halfway and virtually pulled up by Leigh Roche who reported to the stewards that he suddenly hung as though something had gone wrong, however the track vet found nothing amiss with the gelding.

We are still well ahead for the month and have to accept that these blank days are part and parcel of betting.

Best wishes,
The Cleeve team

2.45 Ascot 2m (1m7f209y) John Guest Brown Jack Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Desert God – 72
2) UAE King – 69
3) Mark Hopkins – 67

Race analysis:
The three year old UAE King is the most likely winner, but he has been a bit disappointing even though he had excuses. At under 2/1 he represents little value. The main threat might come from Isharah with Ryan Moore an eye catching jockey booking.

3.20 Ascot 1m (7f213y) (Rnd) Carraig Insurance British EBF Valiant Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Nathra 2 points to win at 3/1 Ladbrokes and Corals

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Nathra – 94
2) Golden Stunner – 89
3) Mittens – 88

Race analysis:
Mittens could be dangerous here despite her wins having come at Class 3 level; however, she is beautifully bred and has plenty of scope to improve. I think she will challenge for a place and can go onto better things given time.

Golden Stunner has not been out of the top three on all her starts this season, but this looks to be a tough task. If our selection is not fully fit I think Golden Stunner could win this as she is talented, but I expect her to finish second.

Nathra was good enough to finish second in a Group 1 last season and she has won on both her seasonal debuts. The fact she has won when fresh negates the 306 days absence from the track she needs to overcome. She is a tough competitor and the stable is hot and she is more than capable of winning this race.

3.55 Ascot 1m4f (1m3f211y) John Guest Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) King Bolete – 95
2) Galapat – 94
2) Tawdeea – 94

Race analysis:
Only two points separate the top four here and that shows how close this race is likely to be. Despite a full analysis I could not come up with a confident selection, and I still ended up with all four on my short list… so no bet.

4.25 Ascot 5f Neptune Investment Management Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Yalta 1 point win & 1 point each way at 13/2 with Betfred Corals and Totesport( al paying 4 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Yalta – 137
2) Afandem – 127
3) Copper Knight – 122
4) Gravity Flow – 119

Race analysis:
Gravity Flow may well be interesting having his first run over five furlongs, especially with the Haggas stable on red hot form. I think it takes horses a while to adjust when dropping back to the minimum as it is all about explosive speed. Gravity Flow may well get caught for speed in the early stages before running on at the end.

Copper Knight has been running well this season and the drop back to handicap company should enhance his chances. He may need a break as his last run was under two weeks ago and he has had a busy season.

Afandem has won at Group 3 and Listed level as a two year old, but has struggled this season so far. This race could be more to his liking and with his three year old allowance he could be competitive, but has something to find with our selection.

I tipped Yalta a couple of weekends ago and he was withdrawn due to the ground being considered too quick. He has won at Group level and hasn’t run below that level since his first two races in maidens. It is interesting to note that he has multiple entries later in the season at only Group 1 and 2 level, which shows how highly thought of he is. Ryan Moore is booked and I think if he gets a good start he will be impossible to catch.

N.B. Back with Betfred – paying 4 places

7.30 York 1m2½f (1m2f56y) British Stallion Studs EBF Lyric Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Rosental 1 point ew at 8/1 Bet365 and Betfair

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Rosental – 102
2) Ajman Princess – 99
3) Aim To Please – 98

Race analysis:
Aim To Please is likely to struggle to stay as her best form is at shorter and on her only try at further than a mile she was well beaten. She like the stable has had a poor season to date and I’m happy to pass her over.

Ajman Princess has a 3 pounds penalty to contend with which is going to make winning this tough. She is remarkably consistent and is likely to place again although I do think she is better on quicker going.

Rosental has won at Listed level and has only had one run this season, at Saint Cloud in a Group 2 finishing fourth, this is much easier and I would expect Jamie Spencer to have her tucked in behind the leaders before making a move in the final furlong. She holds entries at Group 3 level and if she is anywhere near her best I confidently expect her to win here.