Hi there,

Only the one race with selections today given the state of the ground, there were plenty of turn-ups yesterday which makes us very cautious. It is also very trappy racing at Newbury and I couldn't find anything to be confident about there. In situations like this, you have to have the discipline to keep your hands in your pockets and not bet for the sake of it.

Hopefully, Saturday will be a bit more productive...

Best wishes,
The team at Cleeve

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2.20 Newbury1m4f Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-110)

Selections:

NO BET

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Genetics – 67
2) Infrastructure – 66
3) Communique – 65

Race analysis:
A wide-open event that is far too close to call even though it has a good ew shape.
Our top-rated genetics has to overcome a disappointing run last time out when stepped up to 2 miles, but even though he is dropped back down in trip he has won over he is still 6lb higher than his best winning mark which came in a lower class (albeit by 12 lengths), and I’m not sure he will cope with that.

Communique was poor at Ascot last time and seems to have regressed in the second half of the season. This faster ground will be to his advantage but I think he needs a break.

Infrastructure has an eye-catching jockey booking in Ryan Moore which shows connections think he will run well. But he disappointed when running in a Class 2 last time so has it to prove still.

2.30 Ayr 6f Shadwell Stallions Nursery Handicap (Class 2) (2yo)

Selections:

NO BET

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Howzer Black – 99
2) Glorious Charmer – 95
3) Pacino – 94
3) Dream Of Honour – 94

Race analysis:
This will be quite a useful race to watch for winners next season but with a field of fairly unexposed 2-year-olds on what could be very soft ground its not an attractive betting proposition… so no bet.

3.05 Ayr 5f Shadwell Stud/EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo)

Selections:

NO BET

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Cosmic Law – 111
2) Junius Brutus – 101
3) Dave Dexter – 100

Race analysis:
If Cosmic Law bounces back to form, he should probably win this; however, the stable is icy cold which is a big put off.
Junius Brutus would be my first choice here but at 4/1 is a couple of points shorter than I think he should be so is not value. Another good race to watch but not to bet in. No bet.

3.35 Ayr 5½f (5f110y) Al Maktoum Cup Arran Scottish Fillies' Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO BET

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1)Darkanna – 161
2) Magical Dreamer – 154
3) Intense Romance – 152
4) Beauty Filly – 135

Race analysis:
Darkanna was a classy filly last year but hasn’t put her best hoof forward so far this campaign. She should handle the ground OK but her draw could be a bit of a problem so there are too many question marks over her for me.

Magical Dreamer is in good form and has 3 wins in her last 4 starts, only going down when stepped up to Class 1. She is also one who handles some cut, but any more rain and this could get a bit deep for her. She is on a higher mark than she has ever won off and looks far too short in what is a competitive heat.

3.55 Newbury 7f (Str) Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO BET

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Mijack – 74
2) Red Mist – 71
3) Mankib – 69
3) Nebo – 69

Race analysis:
I’m looking forward to watching this race but I could not separate the top four with any confidence. The front two dominate the market and could fill the first two places, both are short but I wouldn’t want to look outside them. No Bet.

4.10 Ayr 6f William Hill Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Dalton 1 point each way at 8/1 BOG with SkyBet (6 places) & Equitation 1 point each way at 9/1 BOG with SkyBet (6 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Dalton – 227
2) Yes You – 214
3) Tawny Port – 186
4) Start Time – 182

Race analysis:
Start Time was of interest here having had two wins back to back and the main reasons I am leaving him alone is the poor stable form and he is unproven at the trip.

Tawny Port is a course and distance winner and ran yesterday finishing down the field. His form does not suggest that he is about to win.

Yes You is a course and distance winner but has the disadvantage of a 5 pounds penalty, he did produce a career-best performance when winning at Thirsk two runs back and I do think he is improving, but he needs a massive amount of improvement to win this and I think he has place claims at best.

Equitation is very lightly raced for a four-year-old but he is open to more improvement than most. The stable is in good form and I think Equitation will at least place here but could prove better than Class 2 in time. He is our fifth top rated.

Dalton is a course and distance winner and has the excellent Callum Rodriguez on board. Dalton has been very consistent and is 2-4 for this stable, plus when I looked into his breeding he should handle the ground without any problem. He looks to me to be the most likely winner if he gets a clear run, which is always important in these big field handicaps.