Cleeve members selections – Friday 1st December
Hi everyone,
To be honest we are glad to see the back of November, which has a been a poor start to the National Hunt season. As long term members know we do have losing months, it's just the nature of this game... but we always get back in front over the season. Let's hope we can start December off in better form, and we start that task off with a couple of selections from a fascinating start to Newbury's Hennessey meeting (sorry Ladbrokes, it will always be the Hennessey!).
Good luck,
The team at Cleeve
1.50 Newbury 2m4f (2m3f187y) Ladbrokes Novices' Chase (Registered As The Berkshire Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Selections:
Race Analysis:
Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Yanworth – 47
2) Willoughby Court – 46
3) Adrien Du Pont – 41
Race analysis:
If Yanworth has got over his fall last time he will be hard to beat even with the decent Willoughby Court and Adrien Du Pont opposing him. Nothing represents value so no bet.
2.25 Newbury 2m4f (2m3f187y) Ladbrokes Open Handicap Chase (Class 2) (4yo+)
Selections:
Race Analysis:
Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) O O Seven – 73
2) Oldgrangewood – 67
2) Vibrato Valtat – 67
Race analysis:
All Vibrato Valtat’s UK wins have been in races of five runners or less and he seems to only show his best when faced by very few opponents. He also has not won for over two years and although he may run into a place I don’t see him winning.
Willie Boy is listed as favourite and is a course and distance winner, but this represents a big step up in class and his jumping may be exposed. If his jumping holds together he could go close, but he faces a much higher class of opponent.
Space Oddity steps out of novice company and that is a tough ask, but Harry Fry is no mug, so he must rate the horse. I think Space Oddity might find himself pushed for speed against more experienced rivals, but it will be interesting to see how he shapes up.
Oldgrangewood is a consistent type and was a distant third in the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree. He does drop in class here, but he seems to lack the speed to win at this trip and this is a good race. I will be interested when he steps up in trip, but think that there will be a couple too quick.
O O Seven was impressive when stepped up in class at the end of last season in the Grade 3 Topham Chase. He has finished second in two Grade 1 hurdles including over this trip and I expect there is more improvement to come this season. O O Seven has won twice first time out, so he should be fit enough on his seasonal debut. The stable is flying, and I expect O O Seven to win a Graded Chase over this trip soon, perhaps at Kempton over Christmas.
3.00 Newbury 3m (3m52y) Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Selections:
Race Analysis:
Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Thistlecrack – 59
2) Unowhatimeanharry – 57
3) Taquin Du Seuil – 46
Race analysis:
This looks to be a match between Thistlecrack and Unowhatimeanharry, but neither represent any value from a betting point of view. It will be interesting to see how Thistlecrack moves after his long layoff from injury. No Bet.
3.35 Newbury 3m (3m52y) Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145)
Selections:
Race Analysis:
Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) The Organist – 105
2) Boyhood – 103
3) Whataknight – 91
Race analysis:
Whataknight is very consistent and will challenge for a place again, but does not have the finishing kick to win especially in a tough race like this.
Hello George, is the market leader according to the early betting and he remains lightly raced for an eight year old. Philip Hobbs string is unusually out of sorts at the moment and although the horse is consistent he has not won above Class 3. Hello George will need to produce a career best to win this.
Boyhood was the last one I ruled out but he would have to have improved to win, but the way he won on his seasonal debut suggests he has strengthened over the winter. He does look as if stepping up in class and trip could be within his scope and if it is he may go close, but at his forecast price he doesnt really offer enough value.
The Organist flirted with chasing last season and although she managed to finish third in a listed novice chase she returned to hurdling. She was considered good enough for the Mare’s Grade 1 Hurdle at Cheltenham finishing 15 lengths behind Apple’s Jade. She has also won at Listed level over this trip and any repetition of that form should see her go very close here.