Cleeve members selections- Ascot Day 4

Hi everyone,

A day of oh so nearly, Frankie on Saga, poor positioning cost us the race despite the very strong start (finishing faster than everyone else), Mojo Star second in the Gold Cup (another where Frankie on Stradivarius has been chastised by Gosden and Owner) and Israr again when ahead could not see it out, placing once more.

And I have not even mentioned the madness of the Norfolk, taken by The Riddler and Hannagan with the most dangerous ride I have seen in a good while.

If one of those goes over the line in our favour it turns it all around, a loss on the day but we polish the pin again and review today’s cards.

We have selections in 3 races so far for today and due to unforeseen family issues last night and this morning I am a bit behind on the analysis for the last 3 races so we thought it prudent to send out the selections we have so far and we will update you all later today with any selections in the other races.

Daily Double
3.05 - El Cabello @13/2
4.20 - Cachet @6/1

Good Luck
The team at Cleeve

 

2.30 Ascot - 6f Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo)

Selections:

Fully Wet 0.5 point each at BOG 11/1 Bet365, William Hill and Betway (4 places)

Race Analysis:

  • Mainly a watching brief in a race full of unexposed 2-year-olds, Mediate looks the most promising towards the top end of the market
  • Fully Wet for the Gosden’s at a better price is a small selection, on the basis, that Frankie needs to start with a bang today and Gosden, when he has a 6f, is rarely wrong with over a 20% strike rate at course and distance.
  • At the price a small play, hoping for yet further improvement post a positive run at Goodwood earlier in the season.

3.05 Ascot - 6f Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (No Geldings) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo)

Selections:

El Caballo 1.5 point each way at BOG 13/2 genrally (5 places) and Sacred Bridge 0.25 point each way at BOG 25/1 generally (5 places)

Race Analysis:

  • El Caballo, is well-drawn and looking to make it 7 on the bounce for Karl Burke. Clifford Lee has a 25% strike rate on last-time-out winners and a run similar to his Newcastle effort would be more than enough today.
  • Sacred Bridge is our second selection, very well fancied and setting on my watch, very good speed figures at Cork, getting weight from everyone today and drawn relatively neutrally, at a bigger price, expect the Filly to go close.

4.20 Ascot - 1m (7f213y) (Rnd) Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo)

Selections:

Cachet 1.5 point each way at BOG 6/1 generally (4 places) and Sandrine 0.5 point EW at BOG 11/1 Bet365 (4 places)

Race Analysis:

  • Inspiral was the long-time ante-post favourite for the 1000 Guineas, withdrawn late in the day, the Filly certainly looked the part last season and plenty of eyes will be on her today. A first run with the potential, growing, Frankie factor, means our head is turned by Cachet once again.
  • Cachet, won the race, Inspiral was withdrawn from and whilst what she beat may be questionable (many return today), the two races at HQ this season have been better than we have seen from all of these this season, the price makes it a sensible each-way play, let’s see if the young, George Boughey can get a Royal Ascot winner.
  • Sandrine at a bigger price is also worth a play for Andrew Balding, a horse that showed promise last season and on the proper fast ground should improve from the credible 5th when reappearing in the Guineas.

5.00 Ascot - 1m (Str) Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) (Fillies) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105)

Selections:

Wilderness Girl 0.25 point each way at BOG 40/1 Paddypower and Bet365 (7 places) and Fresh Hope at 2 points each way at BOG 13/2 Bet365 and Paddypower (7 places) and Golden Spice 1 point each way at BOG 22/1 Bet365 and Paddypower (7 places)

Race Analysis:

The crushingly, challenging fun of another huge handicap, we will back a 3 against the field at decent prices in this:

  • Harry Davies is a very exciting young Jockey, his claim is a huge advantage and he has been riding plenty of winners in recent weeks, he partners, Wilderness Girl today for Andrew Balding and the horse looks ripe for the step-up.
  • Fresh Hope towards the top of the market looks incredibly well-weighted, Hayley Turner rides for Charlie Fellowes and with the horse out of New Approach a Sire whose offspring typically relish these conditions, with a 20% strike rate over course and distance, this will be our major play in the race.
  • Golden Spice is our final selection, a front-running type in a race where it pays to often be up with the pace, Luke Morris will hopefully have been told to get out and stay out on this one who may be hard to reel in at a nice price if all goes well today. A repeat of the form shown at Leicester last time out and carrying nigh on half a stone less today, should prime this selection for a big run.

6.10 Ascot - 5f Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105)

Selections:

Shamlaan 1.5 point each way at BOG 16/1 Bet365 (7 places) and Lil Guff 0.75 point each way at BOG 22/1 Bet365 (7 places) Ladies Church 1.5 point each way at BOG 11/2 Bet365 (7 places)

Race Analysis:

  • The final race of the day, a 5f dash, to round off the end of the week. Shamlaan stands out, very well weighted, well-drawn and a lovely price, if the form shown this season can be replicated when carrying much heavier we will get a great run for our money.
  • Lil Guff again partnered by Luke Morris looks very well primed, carrying nigh on a stone and a half less than when last seen and well-drawn from 3.
  • Finally, we will back the favourite, as on speed figures, Ladies Church is to be respected, setting fractions better than all of the field, the second behind Sacred Bridge whom we are backing earlier in the day, was a race I had marked up, hence if we are backing the winner in the 15:05, the second in the same race deserves respect, at what is, a lower level.