Cleeve members selections – 9th September

Hi everyone,

Just the one selection Big Baz to report on. He ran a creditable enough race and was in front at the furlong pole but just kept on at the same pace and was swamped in the last 100 yards to finish 3rd, so another EW placed selection.
A busy day tomorrow with 10 races  to look at so we have been beavering away to narrow the selections down. We have 5 selections all at decent prices and we are looking to get some winners in the bank.
So lets get down to business....

Good Luck
The team at Cleeve

1.20 Haydock 1m2½f (1m2f100y) EBF Breeders' Series 32Red Fillies' Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Time Chaser – 78
2) Curlew River – 77
3) Appointed – 75

Race analysis:
Pretty much anyone of the runners could win this on their day and we have plenty to go at elsewhere so best watched rather than betting in.

 

2.25 Haydock 6f 32Red Sprint Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Harry Angel 2 points to win at 5/2 generally

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Harry Angel – 117
2) The Tin Man – 111
3) Blue Point – 107

Race analysis:
Both Blue Point and The Tin Man are much better on good or quicker ground and may struggle on ground that is likely to be soft or worse.

Two horses have been backed during the week Brando and Tasleet. Brando won his first ever Group 1 at Deauville last time, but that was over half a furlong further and I am not convinced that he has the speed to win over this trip. He will like any cut unlike most of his rivals and that plays to his advantage. I do think his current price is far too short to play.

Tasleet had his best performance in a Group 2 at York on soft ground, but is probably just below this level. He was also very disappointing last time and that is of concern. If he improves on his York run he could give our selection most to do.

Harry Angel has been a market drifter all week and that is because he is unproven on ground with cut. Harry Angel is the best horse left in the field and if he copes with cut I think he will be hard to beat. His price now actually represents value and is worth us backing.

 

2.45 Ascot 7f Cunard Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Birchwood 1 point each way at 11/2 Skybet (5 Places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Birchwood – 182
2) Breakable – 157
3) Heaven’s Guest – 152
4) Mjjack – 147

Race analysis:
Two years ago, Heaven’s Guest would have walked this race off his current mark, but he hasn’t won since July 2015 and lost his last two races by over 50 lengths combined. It is impossible to trust him presently and it maybe he has just had enough racing or needs a change of stable to freshen him up.

Breakable has been running consistently all season, but would need a career best performance to win this off his current mark. He might well run into a place again, but if the ground gets much softer he could struggle.

Mjjack is very promising and is one of the least exposed runners in the field. He ran well to finish second in the International Stakes over course and distance. He has gone up four pounds for that performance, which does not seem too harsh. I expect him to give our selection most to do and he is likely to place.
Squats and El Hayem are other dangers especially the former.

Birchwood finished third in a top handicap at Goodwood over a mile and the drop back in trip will suit. He won a Group 2 as a two year old and I think he is on a good mark presently. Birchwood has the best jockey in big fields at Ascot in Jamie Spencer and if he gets a clear run could be very hard to beat.

 

3.00 Haydock 5f 32Red Be Friendly Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Selections:

Soie D’Leau 1 point each way at 15/2 Skybet (4 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Copper Knight – 119
2) Holmeswood – 114
3) Soie D’Leau – 105

Race analysis:
Copper Knight would have been the selection here if the ground had been a bit quicker than it is likely to be. Rachel Richardson takes off three pounds which will help, but I think a place is the best he can hope for.

Holmeswood is unbeaten over five furlongs since switching three runs back including a dead heat last time at York in a decent Class 2. He has gone up over a stone for those three wins and this is could prove more difficult. There may be more improvement to come and Holmeswood represents the biggest danger to our selection.

Soie D’Leau is on a winning mark and will be suited by the cut in the ground. The booking of Silvestre de Sousa was what caught my eye and that suggests that the horse has been showing something at home. We can play each way and it will be a surprise if he does not place at least with conditions to suit.

 

3.20 Ascot 1m (Str) Ritz Club EBF "Breeders Series" Fillies' Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Crowning Glory – 116
2) Whispered Kiss – 115
3) Soul Silver – 111
3) Amabilis – 111

Race analysis:
I am going to enjoy watching this race, but it is too difficult to find a selection with several unexposed fillies in the field.

 

3.35 Haydock 1m (1m37y) 32Red Mile (Registered As The Superior Mile Stakes) (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Ballet Concerto – 87
2) Kapersky – 87
3) Sovereign Debt – 85
3) Benbatl – 85

Race analysis:
Seven points separate the top six rated and the top four are only separated by two points, which illustrates what a tight race this is. No Bet.

 

3.55 Ascot 1m4f (1m3f211y) Appletiser Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo)

Selections:

Anythingtoday 1 point each way at 10/1 Bet365 William Hills and Betfred

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Londinium – 157
2) Speedo Boy – 143
2) Cape Coast – 143
4) Anythingtoday – 136

Race analysis:
Mam’Selle looks very promising but this is a big step forward and I will keep a watching brief on her.

Speedo Boy is a possibility and will cope with any rain, but his best form is over shorter trips and he is unlikely to win this.
Londinium and Cape Coast are from the Mark Johnston stable which is not on the best of form. Londinium has struggled off his current mark, which he was raised to when winning on soft ground at Goodwood. Cape Coast has won over the distance and certainly has scope for more improvement, but has no form on soft going which is why I ruled him out last.

Anythingtoday has been running very consistently and has shown his best form on ground with cut. He was staying on when second in a decent race last time and that suggests he will relish the additional trip here. Josephine Gordon is a great judge of the pace of a race and I expect her to bring Anythingtoday through entering the final furlong. The stable has found form and I expect them to have another winner here.

 

4.10 Haydock 1m6f 32Red Casino Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Jaameh – 110
2) Tawdeea – 109
3) My Reward – 105

Race analysis:
Nothing here grasped my attention and a race best watched rather than bet in.

 

4.45 Haydock 1m6f 32Red.com Handicap (Class 2) (3yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Time To Study – 92
2) Joshua Reynolds – 90
2) Great Sound – 90

Race analysis:
Another race that is far too close to call so no bet.

 

5.05 Ascot 6f Chapel Down Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Magnus Maximus 1 point each way at 18/1 Paddypower and Betfair

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Jordan Sport – 179
2) Outback Traveller – 178
3) Merlin – 169
4) Magnus Maximus – 165

Race analysis:
Outback Traveller won the Wokingham over course and distance off this mark, but has been in poor form since and is unlikely to feature here.

Jordan Sport has been ultra-consistent this season but mainly at a lower level including winning a Class 3 last time. He was raised seven pounds for that win, which seems incredibly harsh having watched the race again. I think that makes his task here tough, but I expect him to run consistently again and he may sneak a place.

Merlin has won three from six runs this season and has gone up significantly in the weights as a result. I think there is more improvement to come, but suspect that will be when he is upped in trip rather than sprinting.

Get Knotted is a danger here despite the drop in trip and will handle the ground, but the issue is he doesn’t win that often.

Last year’s winner Magnus Maximus has been out of sorts this season, but as a result he is back on a winning mark. The impressive Finley Marsh takes off five pounds and I think that gives Magnus Maximus a great chance in this race. Looking at his races this season he does not look as if he has been put under a huge amount of pressure and his handicap mark has dropped accordingly. If he handles the ground (has placed on ground with cut) he could follow up last year’s win.