Cleeve members selections – 29th September

Hi everyone,

A profitable day with our two selections, the first Nearly Caught ran a fantastic race and took it up with a furlong to go but just got outstayed by Face the Facts, only being overhauled in the last 50 yards, however we played EW so we made a small profit. (he did trade at big odds in running)

Our second selection Torcello was backed all day down to 5/4 at the off and gave a very pleasing front running display. He was always travelling well and when Oisin Murphy asked him the question he found plenty and was never in danger of being caught... winning by a comfortable 3 lengths.

We have 3 selections for tomorrow from Newmarket so fingers crossed for another profitable day

Good luck,
The team at Cleeve

1.50 Newmarket 1m (Row) Muhaarar British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Amabilis 2 points to win at 5/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) On Her Toes – 134
2) Lincoln Rocks – 127
2) Amabilis – 127
4) Tisbutadream – 124

Race analysis:
This is a top class renewal of this Listed race for the girls.
Muffri’Ha was tempting, but I was put off by her long absence… she did very well at this time of year last season winning three in a row. I will be interested in her when she next runs.

On Her Toes has already won two Listed races but now must cope with a penalty for her latest win, which makes this a tougher proposition. I do expect her to go close as she is probably capable of further improvement.

Tisbutadream is very consistent and has been running well in Group races without winning. A return to Listed level should help her, but she is still six pounds above her last winning mark and she is likely to have to settle for a place again.

Lincoln Rocks struggled off her new mark last time and she is likely to find her three pounds penalty too much to overcome. She probably needs to drop at least three pounds before winning again.

Amabilis has done nothing but improve this season (apart from at Goodwood where she didn’t handle the course) and should be capable of landing her first Listed race. She moves well and copes with all types of going. I expect her to be tucked in behind the leaders and make her move in the final 300 yards.

2.25 Newmarket 1m4f (Row) Princess Royal Nayef Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Mori 2 points to win at 3/1 with Paddypower, BetVictor and Boylesports

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Mori – 94
2) Fleur Forsyte – 88
3) To Eternity – 85

Race analysis:
To Eternity will find this difficult with her penalty, but a drop in trip and a return to a sounder surface should bring about an improvement on her disappointing effort last time out.

Fleur Forsyte won a decent Listed race at York in August but looks to be held by To Eternity on their running earlier in the season. She is likely to have more improvement to come and should be closer to To Eternity this time.

Mori was disappointing behind Fleur Forsyte last time but it looked like she hated the ground, which was closer to soft than good to soft. I expect with a return to a sounder surface that she will return to winning ways. Her second in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot is the best form in the race and I expect her to win comfortably.

3.00 Newmarket 7f (Row) Shadwell Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

 Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Nyaleti – 92
2) Capomento – 80
3) Gavota – 79

Race analysis:
Too many unexposed types to risk a bet, even though I do like our top rated Nyaleti… but even she could be vulnerable to some of the less exposed runners in the field.

3.35 Newmarket 1m (Row) Shadwell Joel Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Beat The Bank – 83
2) Zonderland – 80
3) Mustashry – 78

Race analysis:
I was tempted to back Zonderland here, but the more I analysed the race there were too many threats to risk a bet. It’s going to be a busy weekend and we will have better chances… so no bet.

3.55 Haydock 5f J W Lees Bitter 1828 Nursery Handicap (Class 2) (2yo)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Porchy Party – 64
2) Mable Lee – 64
3) Simmy’s Copshop – 62

Race analysis:
Only five points separate the top five in this race, so far too difficult to call the result… so again no bet.

4.45 Newmarket 1m4f (Row) Mukhadram Godolphin Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Connecticut – 66
2) Frontiersman – 65
3) Red Verdon – 58

Race analysis:
Too close to call between the top two and neither offer particularity good value anyway so an easy no bet.

5.20 Newmarket 1m1f (Row) Shadwell Farm Handicap (Silver Cambridgeshire) (Class 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Addeybb 2 points to win at 4/1 generally

Race Analysis:

Cleeve Top 4 Rated:
1) Addeybb – 162
2) Fire Brigade – 157
3) Chiefofchiefs – 156
4) Afaak – 149

Race analysis:
Affak is probably capable of some improvement, but he is going to need to improve significantly to win this. This unusual trip of 1 mile 1 furlong should help as he is not overly fast, but should stay on breeding.

Chiefofchiefs has won a Class 2 before, but has been a bit disappointing on his last few runs and it looked to me that he needed a break. A rest of twenty days may not be enough to see him win this but he could well run into a place.

Fire Brigade is very consistent and has not been out of the top five in ten races since being gelded. He looks well in at the weights but the stable is going through a very cold patch and that was the major reason for discounting his chances.

Addeybb caught my eye when winning his second start and he has now had four runs winning twice and finishing fourth and third in the other two races. He struggled on soft ground last time in a decent Class 2 at Goodwood but still managed to finish third. Dropping back a furlong on a sounder surface should see him win this probably beating one of the other improving three year olds.