this month has turned out to be an extremely frustrating month. We had two selections yesterday and yet again another place. Month to date that makes it just over 30% of our selections have been placed at decent prices but the winners just haven't come. Just a couple of those places being winners turns the month from loss into profit due to the nature of the prices we play at.
We make no excuses for this even though we knew before racing resumed that it would be a difficult month.
We waited until this morning to post today's selections as we thought there may be some non-runners which is exactly what has happened.
We did have two final selections for this month from Windsor for today but one of them is now a non-runner. We have left the post up so you can see our thoughts on the race.
Let's hope we can at least get in the winner's enclosure to round off what has been a disappointing month for us.
We will be posting the full months results, warts and all later this week.
The team at Cleeve
3.20 Windsor 5f (5f21y) Follow At The Races On Twitter Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-100)
Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Bettys Hope – 72
2) Electric Ladyland – 67
3) Garsman – 62
Garsman comes from a stable that is just coming into form, but he rises two classes after going up six pounds for a very narrow win. I think he may struggle in this company and this may be a ploy to get him a couple of pounds back from the handicapper.
Electric Ladyland is a good-looking daughter of Cable Bay and she ran in the Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot finishing down the field. She will find this much easier, but both the stable and jockey that started the season on fire are now having a quiet time. She does look overpriced and could challenge for the places.
Rayong is the forecast favourite here and that seems to be based upon his second place in the Goff’s Yearling Stakes at York in August finishing behind Mums Tipple. Mums Tipple ran in the 1000 Guineas, so that is decent form. My problem with Rayong is he has only won one race in seven attempts and his price of 2/1 does not shout back me!
Betty’s Hope’s rating is given a massive boost due to her win in the Weatherbys Super Sprint last season. She finished behind Electric Ladyland last time and although she was fourth was not beaten far and that showed me that she is just coming back into form. Betty’s Hope looks to be a fair price and she will come with a late run here and hopefully be in the mix off what looks like a fair mark.
5.20 Windsor 1m3½f (1m3f99y) attheraces.com Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-100)
Cleeve Top 3 Rated:
1) Caradoc – 87
2) Country – 81
3) Frankuus – 80
Country is the market leader at about 11/8; however, has been well beaten on both tries at this level and was beaten in a Class 3 comfortably on his seasonal return. On the form book he looks like a false favourite and although the stable and jockey are in form, I think he is more likely to place.
Frankuus showed his best form at three when winning at Group 3 level; however, since moving stables from Mark Johnston to David O’Meara he has not shown that form. He seems at his best on slower ground over a slightly shorter trip and would need to improve on what we have seen recently to challenge here.
Caradoc is the only horse in the field that has won at Class 2 level (yes Frankuus has won at a higher level but his form has dipped since) and has two wins and a place from three attempts. He does run off top weight but that should not be problematic. There are about four runners here that are likely to contest the lead and set a strong pace and that should set up the race nicely for Caradoc. Caradoc is usually held up in mid-division and can tuck in behind the pacesetters before striking for home. If Pat Dobbs can get him to settle, I have no concerns about the trip. Going with a minimum stake as there are several threats.