Cleeve member selections – Thursday 1st September

Hi everyone,

We kick off the first of the the month with a couple of selections from Salisbury and Haydock. We have not particularly had the rub of the green in August with numerous selections being beaten in photo finishes, as was the case again on Monday with Knight Owl. There's a fine line in this game between winning and losing and sometimes the results just don't go your way. The fact that we have beaten horses in photo finishes proves that the selection process is correct its just we haven't had any luck whatsoever.

Anyway its onwards and upwards and lets hope September gives us plenty of winners...

Good luck,

The team at Cleeve

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4.10 Salisbury EBF Stallions Breeding Winners "Lochsong" Fillies´ Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Selections:

Stellarta 2 points win at 9/2 with Paddypower, Betvictor and Corals

Race Analysis:

Top 3 Rated:
1) Gravity Flow – 86
2)Show Stealer – 86
3) Stellarta – 78

For the prize money this is actually not a bad line up with some promising three year olds racing against some experienced campaigners. Gravity Flow was very much of interest here having won all of her three races this season and generally starting her races very quickly. She is well in at the weights thanks to her three year old allowance and is certain to go close. I am of the view that the weight rise plus a jump of two class levels and her prospective price is not worth taking a risk on. She could well progress again and win, but I would rather keep a watching brief.

Show Stealer has been running in better races than this and her 7th behind Dancing Star in July only beaten just under 3 lengths is the best in the race. She has been running well in decent sprints without looking like winning, but of more concern was here rearing in the stalls and getting left behind last time. That race was over 7 furlongs and she ran on well to be fourth, which suggests a step up in trip maybe for the best. Time To Exceed off her very low weight on handicap debut could be the most dangerous if settling early under the promising George Wood.

Stellarta has more experience than the majority of these, but it was the manner of her victory last time in a better race at Windsor which grabbed my attention. She really stormed clear of a decent field to win impressively and any repeat of that acceleration could see her win despite a nine pounds rise in the weights. Tom Marquand is finding his feet now he has lost his claim and he can produce the horse coming into the final furlong to pip Gravity Flow.

4.30 Haydock £25 Free Bet at 188Bet Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Stars Over The Sea 2 points win at 3/1 generally

Race Analysis:

Top 3 Rated:
1) Cymro – 94
2) Stars Over The Sea – 93
3) Ruwasi – 84

Important Message could be dangerous if fully fit after more than a year layoff; however a gap like that suggests an injury so best watched at this stage. Ruwasi has been in decent form this season winning two and finishing second in two before finishing 7th in a decent race at Ascot last time. His level appears to be Class 3 and 4 so it might be a stretch for him to win this. Cymro has been disappointing having won at this level on seasonal debut, but he has been running in much better races than this. If he can replicate his form at this level he will not be far away at the finish, but he has looked out of sorts in his subsequent races.

Stars Over The Sea won impressively in a Class 3 two runs back making all and winning by 5 lengths. He then ran in a very decent Class 2 race at York and was only beaten just over 2 lengths into fourth having been badly hampered and not getting a clear run in the final 100 yards. I do not think he would have won but he certainly could have grabbed second. He is likely to try and make all again here and running against lesser horses he could well dominate.