Cleeve members selections – 12th February

Hi everyone,

A good day at the office today with 4 selections resulting in 2 winners and a place with the shortest priced selection getting beat - sods law in full flow!!

Our first selection Tobefair - what a horse! won again and he just keeps on improving out battling Morello Royale on the run in to post his 7th victory in a row. At this point he doesn't have an entry for Cheltenham but is quoted as fav for the Pertemps - he should get in now after this win so we will keep you posted.

Then we had Flying Angel who relished the return to testing ground and jumped the last in line with with fav Gino Trail who soon cried enough and he pulled away up the straight to win by a convincing 4 1/2 lengths.

We then had Vibrato Valtat who I personally thought was a good thing hence the 3 point bet - but Mr Sods Law played his hand and Templehills led from start to finish and having to give the winner 21lbs to the winner told in the final stages of the race for Vibrato Valtat who was beaten by 7 lengths. No excuses just not good enough on the day.

Movewithethetimes ran a cracking race and coming over the last both Ballyandy and Movewithethetimes were travelling very nicely. Unfortunately Ballyandy got the upper hand on the run in. This was good form as they both pulled 6 lengths clear of the very useful Clyne. They have both now been shortened in the both the Supreme and Neptune antepost markets after todays performance and we will just have to wait and see which one they go for.

All in a good day with 11 points profit to advised stakes which I would take on any days racing.

We have a 3 selections for tomorrow, 2 from a decent card at Exeter and one of my special favourites over at Leopardstown

Good Luck

The team at Cleeve

 

 

 

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2.20 Exeter Free Bet At 188Bet Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Top 3 Rated:
1) Finian’s Oscar – 58
2) Taws – 55
3) Seven Nation Army – 53

I can’t see anything but Finian’s Oscar winning this unless he falls but at heavy odds on bet.

2.50 Exeter Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)

Selections:

Red Sherlock 0.5 points each way at 16/1 Betvictor, Betfair and Skybet

Race Analysis:

Top 4 Rated:
1) Reve De Sivola – 140
2) Tobefair – 129
3) Red Sherlock – 127
4) Ballymalin – 126

I was tempted to leave this race alone until I started going through the form in depth.

I do like Barney Dwan which unseated when looking like winning when we backed him last time, but he tends to make mistakes and this looks like a better race.

Reve de Sivola is a grand horse but his abilities appear to be on the wane so can be counted out here despite the lower level.

Tobefair was one of our winning selections today and is unlikely to run two days in a row.

Ballymalin has been on a great winning run, which has seen him go up the weights having won four of his last five at a lower level. He could still be improving and is certainly a threat.

Big Easy, Virtuel D’Oudon and Red Sherlock have all been missing for long periods 512, 722 and 1068 days respectively. Of the three Red Sherlock despite having been off for over a thousand days is the class horse amongst these and I can only think that he must retain ability to have been kept in training. He is worth the smallest stakes to see if he can reproduce the form which saw him win six of his seven races including a Grade 2.

3.20 Exeter 188Bet Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 1 Of The 2017 Veterans´ Chase Series) (CLASS 2) (10yo+ 0-150)

Selections:

What’s Happening 1 point each way at 9/1 Paddypower

Race Analysis:

Top 3 Rated:
1) Harry Topper – 124
2) Buywise – 113
3) What’s Happening – 106

Harry Topper is well clear at the top of the ratings and if this was two years ago, he would stroll home in front. He has been pulled up three times in his last four starts and that suggests either a bleeding issue or a breathing problem. It would be good to see him back, but it is unlikely on recent form.

Buywise as I have said before is talented but very hard to win with and even dropping into the veteran’s sphere and it is now two years since his last win. He is still ten pounds above that winning mark and he has place claims at best here.

What’s Happening has not been seen since October 2015 when he won at the Cheltenham Open Meeting. He has obviously had issues, but has won on seasonal debut before and with Tom George having his string in good form he should go close.

4.00 Leopardstown Stan James Irish Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+)

Selections:

Carlingford Lough 1 point each way at 5/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes and Corals

Race Analysis:

Top 3 Rated:

1) Don Poli
2) Carlingford Lough
3) Road To Riches

A top class renewal of the Irish Gold Cup with multiple Grade 1 winners in the field.

Road To Riches has been a bit out of sorts this season and is unlikely to bounce back to form in a tough race like this.

Empire of Dirt and Sizing John represent real threats as the up and coming horses. I ruled out Sizing John finally as he is unproven over three miles. He did win and stayed on last time over 2 miles four furlongs and could well stay and if he does he will be a threat.

Don Poli ran well to finish second in the Lexus but needs softer ground than this to make full use of his fantastic stamina reserves.

Carlingford Lough has won this race the last twice and has been prepped especially for this race and he always runs well at Leopardstown. He is likely to come with a late run and can complete his hat trick – his last six runs in Ireland have produced four wins all in Grade 1’s over three miles.