Cleeve Full Member Selections – Saturday 23rd July

Hi there,

 

Well we had a nice winner today when Sea of Heaven who went so close for us last week rallied bravely to hold on from the equally tough Nakeeta. He was well supported in the market to 9/4 fav from an overnight price of 11/4 means we got the value. We dodged a bullet with Bermondsey who never looked like being a 2/1 shot, he pulled far to hard and faded in the straight to finish in last. I will be looking to give him another chance as he is definitely better than this. Finally Royal Birth never looked like troubling the leaders but managed to hold on to third to give us another small profit... so we finished the day 6.5 points up and give us a bit of momentum to carry into the weekend.

There was only on other race that I looked at but the small field means we have no formal selection, the top rated were as follows: 4.30 Ascot - Dartmouth 69, Highland Reel 64, Wings of Desire 63

Best wishes,

The Cleeve team

3.00 York - Read Richard Fahey´s Column At Sportinglife.com Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Swift Approval 2 points ew @ 6/1 with Bet365 (C4 offer)

Race Analysis:

Top 3 Rated:
Swift Approval – 91
Get Knotted – 83
Alfred Hutchinson – 79

Alfred Hutchinson has decent form at York; however most of his wins have been over a longer distance. He is also struggling on his current mark of 100 and his last winning mark was 92. I think he is running over 7 furlongs to start bringing his mark down. Get Knotted has won Class 2 races but off a mark 9 pounds below his current rating and he has struggled in his recent runs at this level since. He could well run into a place now that he drops back to 7 furlongs.
Swift Approval has been an improving horse over each of his last four runs with three wins culminating a win at this level last time. He has gone up 4lbs for that win but the opposition looks pretty thin here and he can win again.

3.20 Ascot - Woodford Reserve Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo)

Selections:

Folkswood 1 point ew @ 8/1 with Bet365 (C4 offer)

Race Analysis:

Top 4 Rated:
Folkswood – 105
Sir Roderick- 99
Pirouette – 96
Von Blucher – 93

This is an interesting handicap for three year olds, which I think will be a race that will produce a number of future winners. Pirouette gets in here off a very low mark and has won her last two comfortably enough; however they were Class 4 and 5 and this will be much more difficult, however I can see her getting into the places thanks to her low weight. Sir Roderick has been in great form winning five of his last seven, but again they were all at a lower level. He has now gone up twenty eight pounds and is probably reached his peak level now. I think the fact he has to improve considerably again which makes his winning here unlikely.

Von Blucher was very tempting bearing in mind his ability to quicken and his jockey/trainer combination. He is still learning and has scope for further improvement and will probably give our selection most to do. Folkswood finished 8th in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot which is by far the best form on show here. Prior to that he won two races at Class 2 level and a replication of his run in the Britannia will see him very hard to beat. Charlie Appleby has been in great form and Folkswood can win this prior to moving up to compete at Group/Listed level.

3.55 Ascot Gigaset International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+)

Selections:

Cape Icon 1 point each way @ 18/1 with Bet365 (5 places and C4 offer)

Race Analysis:

Top 4 Rated:
Heaven’s Guest – 117
Flash Fire – 115
Mullionheir – 109
Cape Icon – 103

The top five rated here are clear of the rest and I am sure the winner will come from one of those. Mullionheir has struggled at Class 2 level but does have some scope for improvement and if handling the quick ground could manage a minor place. Flash Fire was held last time in a similar race to this and it could be that his high mark will stop him winning in handicap company until he drops a few pounds in the weights. Saying that I do think he will go well again as he seems to enjoy Ascot. Heaven’s Guest is a remarkable handicapper and has won us plenty of money over the years. It is a credit to both horse and trainer that he retains his enthusiasm running off big weights in these tough handicaps. I do think he is better on ground that has a bit of cut and is likely to place at best off his current mark on fast ground.

Librisa Breeze (fifth rated) was second for us at 20/1 in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot and is sure to go well again here. The difference is he has never won over 7 furlongs and I expect him to go close without winning as he lacks that outright speed. On breeding I expected him to be upped in trip rather than dropped, but maybe his trainer has spotted something at home. Cape Icon is interesting as he has only had five runs and is still likely to be improving. He has been running over further than this, but at Ascot I always like a horse who stays a furlong further than the race distance due to the uphill finish. Clive Cox has been in tremendous form recently and Cape Icon can add to his big race wins this season.

4.10 York - Sky Bet Dash Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Tanzeel 2 points ew @ 5/1 with Skybet (5 places) or 6/1 with BetFred (4 places)

Race Analysis:

Top 4 Rated:
Louis The Pious – 128
Tanzeel – 128
Intisaab – 119
Judicial – 117

An interesting blend of youth and experience in this race and again the top five rated are well clear of the remainder. Two years ago Louis The Pious would have been the selection, but despite now being below his last winning mark he is unlikely to win here. I do think if he starts well he could well run into the minor places. Intisaab was a non-runner when selected by us last weekend, but that was an easier race than this. He is improving but will need to improve by at least 8 lbs more to challenge here, I think is this is unlikely to happen despite him going well with his lady jockey.

Cornwallville (5th top rated) is held by Intisaab and is unlikely to reverse that in this race and his price reflects that. Judicial was the last one I ruled out as he has only run over 5 furlongs; however on breeding he should be suited by the step up and can give our selection most to do. He does need to improve but my main concern is that he has struggled at this level over five furlongs.

Tanzeel won this race last season and is now only 2lbs higher in the weights. He has been kept fresh for this race and had a workout last time over an unsuitable 7 furlongs on his seasonal debut. He can be a repeat winner of this for Charlie Hills who does well with his sprinters.