Hi everyone,

Make sure you're glued to the television tomorrow as I will be having my first ride in the Lincoln on Fatbellygutbucket. Unfortunately I am putting up 2 stone overweight an I have been told that if my mount gets tired, I have get off and walk him over the line. The stewards have also said I have to make sure I finish before the next race is due off!!

On a more serious note the jumps fare is pretty dire tomorrow, so we have focused on Doncaster's Lincoln meeting, but keep an eye out on Sunday as there are two Class 2 races at Ascot, so we may well have a selection.

Good luck,
Mark, the team at Cleeve

 

Leave a Comment

You must be logged in to post a comment.

13.50 Doncaster 6f Betway Cammidge Trophy Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Mobsta 1 point each way at 6/1 with Bet365 (1/4 odds)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve’s top 3 rated:
1) Mobsta – 120
2) Birchwood – 117
3) Absolutely So – 112

I think this race is between the top two mainly due to Absolutely So losing his way a bit last season. Birchwood has won at before at listed level and has the top official rating in the race, however his latest two wins have been over 7 furlongs and I do think that this six furlong race may be a bit sharp for him, Saying that he will be dangerous if he gets a soft lead, as he may kick a ways from home and out stay the field.

Mobsta won this race last season and I think he can follow up again tomorrow. He progressed to win a Group 2 later in the season and that level of form should be more than good enough to win this. He won first time out last season so fitness should not be a worry, and he has won on both ground with a cut and a bit quicker so the going should not be an issue.

14.25 Doncaster 1m (Str) Betway Spring Mile Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) Winner: £28,013

Selections:

Raising Sand 1 point each way at 10/1with Skybet (6 places), generally 11/1 with 4 places

Race Analysis:

Cleeve’s top 4 rated:
1) Raising Sand – 198
2) Gabrial’s Kaka – 172
3) Sir Roderick – 163
4) Sacred Act – 161

Gabrial’s Kaka has a bit of class so is a threat, but probably will need the run and would prefer the ground to be riding a bit quicker. The 3lbs taken off by Adam McNamara could be useful in the latter stages if getting a clear run, but I am happy to pass him by here.

Sir Roderick is a likeable sort with a decent winning strike rate of 36%, and he won a couple of decent races last season. Those two wins pushed his official rating up, and despite struggling off his new mark has only dropped 1lb to a mark of 96. I think he will struggle to win any more races until that drops down by another 4-5lbs .

Sacred Act has had training issues so has only managed five starts at the age of six. He must  have had injury problems or is very fragile. He did win on his only start last season, so with the stable in form and Atzeni booked he looks the biggest threat to our selection. He is short enough in the betting for a horse with his lack of experience running in a big field, and all in all those factors ultimately swayed me towards our selection.

Other threats include fifth rated Swift Emperor for David Barron who does well here in handicaps, and the in form Nimr who is a possible danger if translating his all-weather form to turf.

Raising Sand has a winning attitude which is always a massive plus for any horse, and although he has yet to win at this level I certainly think he is capable of it. His likely price makes him a decent each way play, and although Jamie Osborne hasn’t had a winner in the last week or so, his horses have been performing to 90% of their best form. Adam Kirby is one of the most under-rated jockeys riding presently and he can steer Raising Sand home. Dropping back to a mile will suit as he didn’t appear to stay on his final start last season over two furlongs further.

N.B. Skybet are going 6 places on this race

15.00 Doncaster 1m (Rnd) Betway Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve’s top 3 rated:
1) Crazy Horse – 98
2) Custom Cut – 97
2) Stormy Antarctic – 97

Only one point separates the top three and it is too difficult to call, so no bet.

15.15 Kempton 1m3f Betfred "Home Of Goals Galore" Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) (Class 2) (4yo+)

Selections:

NO SELECTION

Race Analysis:

Cleeve’s top 4 rated:
1) General Hazard
2) Southdown Lad
3) Noble Gift
4) Well Hacked

I looked long and hard at this race and was almost convinced to give General Hazard a chance despite the huge leap in class. Ultimately I have decided to just watch and take notes as it is a very open race. I used to love the Rosebery Handicap when it was run on turf as it frequently threw up any number of future winners. I am not sure if the all-weather equivalent does the same, and that is something I need to analyse further… so again no bet.

15:35 Doncaster 1m (Str) Betway Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+)

Selections:

Yuften 1.5 points each way at 9/2 with Skybet (6 places), and Dolphin Vista 1 point each way at 14/1 with Skybet (6 places)

Race Analysis:

Cleeve’s top 4 rated:
1) Yuften – 203
2) Heavens Guest – 183
3) Donncha – 182
3) Zhui Feng – 179

This looks to be a strong renewal of the Lincoln and as per usual Richard Fahey has multiple runners for a race he does well in every year.

Two of the ante post favourites Morando and Chelsea Lad miss the race, the former due to a minor setback and the latter missed the cut. Heavens Guest has been a profitable horse for Cleeve members over the past few seasons, but was badly out of form in his last few races of last season, and at seven is probably too old to win a Lincoln (only one winner older than 6 years old in the last 21 runnings).

Donncha is a horse with talent, but is well held by our selection on their running in the Balmoral Handicap back in October. Added to that his best form tends to be on a faster surface than he is likely to get here. Zhui Feng is also held by Yuften based on the same race, where he finished down the field. However he is only four so is likely to still be improving, he is one I have on my watch list for this season.

Oh This Is Us is interesting with Ryan Moore booked, but his form has been over shorter and it would be a surprise if he can win over a mile in such a competitive field. He did win over a mile as a three-year-old in a Class 4, but this is much tougher.

Dolphin Vista has won over further than a mile which is a big plus in the Lincoln, and with Paul Hanagan renewing his association with Richard Fahey they could be off to a big winning start. Dolphin Vista gets in on a low weight and although his chances of beating Yuften are slim he pays well for the place.
Battle of Marathon who was second last year is another threat, as is Battery having his first run for David O’Meara.

Yuften is miles clear at the top of the ratings (20 points) and his win in the Balmoral Handicap over a mile is by far the best form in the race. That win proved he handled the trip and a big field (19 runners and in my view showed that the horse is best at a mile or perhaps a bit further. He has switched trainers three times in his career and it seems to me they were trying to figure out his best distance, most of his early starts were at shorter distances than a mile and I think the problem was the horse took time to fill out. Now that he has and has found his right trip, he could prove to be a Group horse this season.

N.B. Skybet are going 6 places on this race