Cleeve member selections – Saturday 16th July

Hi everyone,

Well it looked for quite a long time that Sea of Heaven would land the marathon at Newbury but that man Ryan Moore managed to get a final rattle out of Sweet Selection (who was nominated as the main danger!) to pip us in the final half furlong. We played each way so a very small profit will cover a couple of drinks tonight, and with Intisaab a non-runner we swiftly move on to tomorrow's action...

After a quick (and still painful look at last Saturday's debacle! We had a good couple of winners on Thursday and Friday banking a profit of 17 points, but managed to squander almost all of it on a day when nothing went according to plan...

Hoofalong 1 point each way - never really got in the race finishing 12th but was only beaten 3 lengths

Kodi Bear 2 points win - ran a solid enough race but ran on one paced in the final furlong finishing 6th beaten 4 lengths

Mr Singh 1 point each way - looked promising for a long time but again found disappointingly little at the business end of the race, finishing 8th beaten 6 lengths.

Revolutionist 1 point each way - raced prominently but was soon swallowed up finishing 13th beaten 7 lengths. Educate who won at 20/1 got an honourable mention in the write up but is one that got away!

Twilight Son 1 point each way - did us a favour at Royal Ascot but found the ground too firm and was never at the races. The impressive winner Limato is another tyhat got away (curses) as he is one of our horses to follow and has been a selection for us already this season.

Glorious Empire 1 point each way - and to finish the day off in the same vein as it started our final selection sustained an injury in the race and was pulled up!

On to tomorrow....

Race Ratings where there is no selection
2.30 Newbury - top 3: Golden Stunner 70, Baharrah 69 and Gratzie 69
3.00 Newbury - top 3: Trip to Paris 74, Scottish 66 and Retrieve 66
4.10 Newbury - top 4 rated: Super Julius 86, Boundsy 83, In First Place 79 and Letmestopyouthere 78
4.45 Newbury - top 3 rated: Dragon Mall 83, Pure Diamond 82 and Dark Emerald 78

let's hope we have better luck this weekend!

Best wishes,

The Cleeve team

3.15 Newmarket Nexus Infrastructure Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Selections:

Grand Inquisitor - 1 point win at 4/1 general

Race Analysis:

Top 3 rated:
Grand Inquisitor – 108
Miracle of Medinah – 101
Bathos – 97

Miracle of Medinah is held by our selection on their running in the Victoria Cup at Ascot back in May. Arguably he has the best form on the book with a Group 3 win, but that was back in 2013 and that was his last win. Bathos gets in here on a very low weight and was tempting, as his best form has been about a mile and at Newmarket. He has struggled the last twice when running over two furlongs further and dropping back to a mile should suit him. My main concern is he has only won once at Class 2 level and that was a minor race compared to this.

Grand Inquisitor was an impressive fifth in the Victoria Cup and then was second in a Class 2 handicap over an extra half furlong on unsuitably soft ground. The combination of the extra distance and soft going pushed his stamina to the limit and he was headed in the final 75 yards. I think the better ground and the drop in trip will be ideal here and he can notch his first win of the season. We are only playing to minimum stakes due to the threat from Bathos.

3.35 Newbury bet365 Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Illuminate - 1 point each way at 10/1 general

Race Analysis:

Top 3 rated:
Illuminate – 84
The Tin Man – 81
Buratino – 79

The Tin Man is the overnight favourite for this race but in my view he is far too short a price based on his achievements to date. He does have a decent fourth in a Group 1 and if he replicates that form he could well win, but he disappointed last time again at the top level. I would actually like him to drop to five furlongs for the first time as I think he could out run several of the top sprinters especially at either Sandown or Ascot with an uphill finish. Buratino has been frustrating this season as I do think he has a lot of talent. He was initially tried over a mile (a mistake in my opinion) and then dropped back to 6f the last twice and disappointed both times. It could be he needs to relearn sprinting and it could be third time lucky tomorrow but too much of a chance for me.

A major danger could be Charming Thought but giving Illuminate eight pounds is no easy task. Illuminate is another horse which started off over a mile in the 1000 Guineas, but dropped back to sprinting in the Commonwealth Cup finishing 5th only 2 ¾ lengths off the winner. That was very good form and if replicating that here, albeit against older horses she will not be far away. She is better value each way than the favourite and is potentially the best horse in the race.

3.50 Newmarket Newsells Park Stud Stakes (Registered As The Aphrodite Stakes) (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

Selections:

Miss Marjurie - 3 points win at 6/1 with Bet365 (C4 offer)

Race Analysis:

Top 3 rated:
Miss Marjurie – 104
Sound of Freedom – 89
Oakley Girl – 86

Oakley Girl has won all her races on the all-weather but over shorter than a mile and a half, so it is hard to see her win this. She is incredibly consistent with 64% of her races resulting in a first three finish, which is impressive… she could well run into a place here if coping with the increase in distance, which being by Sir Percy, a Derby winner, could well happen. Sound of Freedom has not won further than a mile and has again been pretty consistent, but she has not really looked like winning apart from a second at Group 1 level on soft going in Italy. She has not yet adapted to UK racing after three attempts this season.
The unexposed three year olds Taqaareed and Shall We could present the biggest dangers to our selection but even with the weight advantage probably have place claims at best.

Miss Marjurie is so far clear at the top of the ratings I had to make her a strong bet despite her not being at her best on her two runs this season. She is capable of winning at a higher level than Listed and if returning to her best will win this. She would have been an even bigger bet if she had shown better form in her last two runs.