Cleeve member selections – Cheltenham 23rd October

NH SeasonHi everyone,

A very warm welcome to our first National Hunt selections and let's hope we can get off with a bang! The season promises to be a cracker and we are really looking forward to trying to outdo last seasons profit of 125 points.

As it's early on in the season, we have kept things to a minimum and will be watching out for whose horses are fit and ready for action and whose need the run.

We will back tomorrow night for Saturday's selections (flat and NH) and we may even have a selection for Aintree on Sunday.

Good luck,

The Cleeve team

 

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15.20 Cheltenham - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) (CLASS 2) (4yo+)

Selections:

Mijhaar 1 point ew @ 9/1 with Betvictor, ToteSport and Skybet

Race Analysis:

There were four main challengers in this race based upon my analysis and they were Mijhaar, Saint John Henry, Mr Shantu and Kilfinichen Bay. Saint John Henry is the tissue favourite; however he has been a suspect jumper in the past with two falls in his last four appearances last season. He is pretty short in the market considering that flaw and Cheltenham does not take prisoners if mistakes are made at hurdles or fences. Mr Shantu was the last one I ruled out and he has been impressive winning his last two, but the last time resulted in a ten pounds jump up the handicap. Jonjo has Patrick Cowley up and that reduces the rise by seven pounds; however young Cowley was riding last time so the allowance is negated. There may be more improvement to come but I think it is still a big ask to win this. Kilfinichen Bay is second favourite and comes into the race having won eight of his last nine, but they were a lower grade and another eight pounds rise is likely to prove beyond him.

Mijhaar has not won for eleven months, but he has been running in much higher class races including performing well in Grade 3 races at both Cheltenham and Aintree. This represents a huge drop in class and the fact that he has won first time out both over jumps and on the flat removes any fitness concerns. The Ferguson and Coleman partnership has started well, and if the horse is within the first four coming to the last he will put the others to the test with his flat speed.

15.55 Cheltenham - Ryman Stationery Cheltenham Business Club Novices´ Chase (CLASS 2) (5yo+)

Selections:

Vincente 2 points win @ 7/2 with ToteSport Betfred and Stanjames

Race Analysis:

I really like A Good Skin but he usually takes a lot of racing to get fit, so we will wait for a run or two before picking him. Nigel Twiston Davis usually has a winner or two at this meeting and always does well in October/November and his Ballykan has a good chance here. He has won his two chases to date well but has gone up markedly at the weights as a result. I do think he will go close and could win, but I think is likely to find Vincente too good. A bigger danger could be the unexposed Vintage Vinnie who romped home first time out and could be anything.
Vincente has not run for 164 days and had won his last two races and he looks like he has been saved for this race. I think he will be held up just behind Ballykan and Vintage Vinnie before making his move coming down the hill. I would have made him a three point bet but have minor concerns about his jumping and the threats from his rivals.