Hello everyone, the excitement is building for the highly anticipated debut of undefeated Pinatubo who will go off the hot favourite in tomorrow's 2000 Guineas... the first Classic of the season at Newmarket.
This post is meant to give you a good 'feel' for the race rather than being an in-depth form analysis We will be looking at the 10-year trends, the most important trials, key statistics and the leading contenders.
The 2000 Guineas is a Group 1 race for three-year-old colts. It is run on the Rowley Mile over 1m on the straight course. The race has a reputation as an early-season guide for the Epsom Derby but the only horse to have won both races in the last ten years was Camelot back in 2012.
Qipco 2000 Guineas Past Ten Winners
These are the past 10 winners of the Qipco 2000 Guineas. It has usually gone to a fancied horse although there has been a couple of shocks, horses rated 110+ are 8/10 and the two that weren't were 40/1 and 33/1 shock results.
Qipco 2000 Guineas Stats & Facts
- Aidan O’Brien has won the race ten times in total - three of those in the last four years.
- Richard Hannon Jr has trained a top 3 finisher in five of the last seven runnings
- Sir Michael Stoute is the joint-second most successful trainer with five wins - but none since 2001.
- SEVEN of the last ten winners scored in Group 1 company on their previous start.
- TEN of the last ten winners won or placed on only their second racecourse appearance
- Galileo has been the most successful sire from the last ten runnings - he's sired three winners, Frankel (2011), Gleneagles (2015) & Churchill (2017).
- James Doyle & William Buick have the best riding record having finished placed six times
Looking back at the 10-year history of the 2,000 Guineas, there are in fact five main recognised trials for the race...
Greenham Stakes - Run over 7f at Newbury and four of the last ten winners went on to finish no worse than second in the 2000 Guineas. The 1-2 in 2010 Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs went onto finish 2nd and 3rd. The same applied to the 1-2 in 2014 Kingman and Night Of Thunder who finished 1st and 2nd. Finally, the 2015 3rd Ivawood and 2017 2nd Barney Roy also went on to fill the top-three in the Guineas.
Fate of Greenham winners - 219227
Dewhurst Stakes - Run at Newmarket over 7f and three winners of the race from the last ten runnings have gone on to win the 2000 Guineas. Frankel (2010), Dawn Approach (2012) and Churchill (2016). Hot favourite Pinatubo won last years’ Dewhurst.
Fate of Dewhurst winners - 11901
National Stakes - Run over 7f at the Curragh, three winners of the event in Ireland have produced 2000 Guineas winners. Dawn Approach (2012), Gleneagles (2014) and Churchill (2016). Last years’ vastly impressive winner was Pinatubo.
Fate of National Stakes winners - 7017101
Vertem Futurity Trophy - Formerly known as the Racing Post Trophy and run over 1m at Doncaster, last year's postponed race was run on the all-weather at Newcastle so the race's trends may not be borne out this year. Three winners have gone on to win the 2000 Guineas... Camelot (2012), Saxon Warrior (2017) and Magna Grecia (2018). Last years’ winner was Kameko, currently the third favourite.
Fate of trial winners - 018011
The Greenham has thrown up the most consistent figures over the years with a win and three places. However, the National and Vertem Futurity have achieved more Guineas winners. Based on this the betting market looks spot on with Pinatubo heading the market as the red-hot favourite having won the Dewhurst and National Stakes. Kameko is currently the third favourite on the back of a good win in the Vertem Futurity Trophy.
2020 Key 2000 Guineas Trends
- 10/10 - Had an official rating of 109+
- 10/10 - Finished in the top 2 last time out
- 10/10 - Had placed over at least 7f before
- 10/10 - Had won between 2-3 times before
- 10/10 - Raced no more than 6 times previously
- 9/10 - Won last time out
- 9/10 - Had won over at least 7f before
- 9/10 - Had won a Group race previously
- 7/10 - Placed favourites
- 7/10 - Came from the top 2 in the betting
- 7/10 - Drawn in stall 9 or lower
- 6/10 - Won by an Irish-trained yard
- 6/10 - Winners were drawn in stalls 1-6
- 5/10 - Winning favourites
- 4/10 - Had run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
Favourites finishing order: 2010-2019
6, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 12, 1, 3, 5
Breaking down the leading contenders for the 2020 2000 Guineas...
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Kinross is clearly held in high regard by connections and made a breathtaking debut when powering away to score by eight lengths. However, Kinross could only manage fifth in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy next time out when 13/8F. Kinross didn't look suited to the surface so would be expected to improve on that experience having been eased down when his chance had gone.
But he fails on most of the key trends with no group race win, failing to win last time out, failing to finish in the top 2 last time and with every winner of the last ten runnings winning at least twice before the 2000 Guineas it looks like he has a mountain to climb on all known form. I
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Arizona was a top-class two-year-old, winning the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and was an unlucky fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf when last seen. In between those two runs, Arizona has seen the backend of Pinatubo when beaten comfortably each time and I find it hard to see him reversing the form being one of the most exposed in the line-up.
However, he does tick most of the key trends and has improved with every run but with him failing to win last time out or even finishing in the first two is slightly off-putting. Despite those negatives, Arizona still has strong claims of running a very big race, especially with another season under his belt to improve mentally.
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Pinatubo was an exceptional two-year-old who remained unbeaten in all six races eventually achieving a higher mark than Frankel managed. He has beaten everything to date smoothly but the two questions still remain over his head is whether he has trained on as a three-year-old and will he get the mile trip.
I firmly believe he will... Pinatubo ticks all the top five trends having already won two of the major trials for the race. William Buick has a great record of finishing in the places in the 2000 Guineas’ but Pinatubo is by far the best chance he has had of winning the race. Pinatubo is a worthy favourite and it will take one hell of a performance from anything else in the race to get the better of him, that’s for sure.
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Kameko burst onto the scene when a comfortable winner in a maiden on debut. Having finished second at Sandown and Newmarket on his next couple of runs, he confirmed himself as a leading contender when returning a commanding winner of the rescheduled Vertem Futurity Stakes at Newcastle.
There is good a chance he handled the surface better than most being an American-bred colt. Nevertheless, Kameko still won handsomely and the way he went clear inside the final furlong at Group 1 level firmly suggests the return to turf over a stiff mile at Newmarket is well within his grasp and Oisin Murphy will take the ride to add extra ammunition.
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
This is a horse I really like despite being the yard's second string for the race. Wichita won two of his first three races, one of those coming in Group 3 company on the Rowley course at Newmarket over seven furlongs. His latest start saw him take aim at Group 1 level in the Dewhurst Stakes on soft ground over the same C&D and he ran with plenty of credit to finish third behind Pinatubo. Despite finishing two lengths behind Arizona and two lengths further adrift of Pinatubo, Wichita had far less racecourse experience compared to that pair.
It is easy to see that Wichita has more room for progression in the long run compared to the two market leaders in this race. Aidan O’Brien also mentioned previously he was ‘late to get started’ so his run in defeat last time out should be monitored closely. I think he is sure to relish the step up in trip to 1m back on better ground and having already proven he handles the Rowley track and has Group 1 form and likely to improve being a lightly raced individual. I think he should be a lot shorter in the betting than he currently is.
Others to note..
I want to give a quick mention to a few other runners in the race and they are Military March, Kenzai Warrior and Mums Tipple at bigger odds. The first two Military March and Kenzai Warrior currently hold unbeaten records having won twice each previously and represent top trainers - Saeed Bin Suroor and Roger Teal. While the Richard Hannon trained runner Mums Tipple should not be completely discounted at a huge price. He lost his unbeaten record last time out but with his connections fantastic place strike rate in recent years in the 2000 Guineas then he must be another horse to consider in what promises to be a mouth-watering renewal of the Classic.