Cleeve have a long-standing relationship with punting professional Andy Gibson. Andy is very well respected in racing circles and he has been a frequent pundit for At the Races and Racing TV, he can also be heard regularly on William Hill Radio.
Andy’s consistent success as a professional punter has been built on thirty years of observation, analysis of race data, the effect of hype on the betting market, comparison times plus many other variables that shape the way horses perform and identify value betting opportunities.
Andy developed and launched the successful Cheltenham Trail and subscribers receive the benefit of his hours of research throughout the National Hunt season.
In this post Andy looks at the recent Irish domination and tries to give it some context...
“Since 2017 Irish trainers provided an average of 43% of the runners in the Grade One contests but average of 66% of all winners.
The simple conclusion to draw from recent Cheltenham Festivals would be to focus on Irish trained horses in March 2022. As always it is more complicated than this… almost a third of Irish winners were double figure SP's, including two 25/1 shots, plus Minella Indo who won the 2019 Albert Bartlett at 50/1.
Clearly, if we decided to focus on Irish trained horses in recent times we would still be left with many selections to choose from. The fact that Irish trainers were responsible for 12/14 winners at the most recent Festival will result in a strong market bias towards their horses in 2022. Consequently, the British trained horses could easily be more forgotten about than usual thus offering more value with a smaller selection of contenders to choose from.
It will be interesting to see how a 60/40 advantage in 12 Grade One races (not inc. the Festival Bumper and Mares Hurdle) is treated by the bookies. It doesn't seem enough to make the Irish raiders much more attractive in the market than the British runners, but the bookies look sure to overeact and the vale edge will surely lie with the home hopes.
The final point I would like to make is that every cycle has a beginning and an end and is then be replaced by another cycle which may eventually appear to be just as robust."