We have got Josh Wright back to run his eye over the Hennessey meeting that starts tomorrow and pick out the key trends that will hopefully steer you towards the more likely winners and as importantly away from the more likely losers. If you like what you read his free report is still available to download and it's a very useful weapon to have in your punting armoury.
The Cleeve team
Hello again, Josh here and what a feast of racing we have to look forward to over the next few days, culminating in the Hennessy Gold Cup. Last year one of my two pins managed to land on Many Clouds but rather frustratingly that was the only time I backed him all season! Anyway, I am not here to reminisce but rather to highlight some of the key stats that may help you identify a few value bets, and hopefully some winners.
General Stats (based on all races)
Much like Cheltenham’s Open Meeting where horses priced 14/1 and under dominated again this year, this 3 day meeting isn’t one to go chasing that big priced winner. Of course we all hope to back a horse at a big price and see it shorten throughout the day. But if you do fancy a horse at a big price and money doesn’t come for it, the warning lights should be flashing…
Statistically outsiders perform 61% below market expectations, even at this end of the market normally we should still expect to see a few more of them making it into the places. To further segment outsiders those priced at 33/1 or bigger are just 0 wins and 5 places from 129 runs…. so avoid.
the fancied group still post a large loss if followed blindly so other stats need to be used to be more selective.
N.B all the stats that follow are purely focusing on 16/1 winners and shorter *
Unsurprisingly the group comprising younger, more progressive horses perform best…
Let’s have a look at those trainers who have outperformed at this meeting. The list below all have 4 or more wins to their name…
And those who arguably should have done better…
Now let’s have a look at the HANDICAPS… Firstly let’s go back to the winners SP... those priced over 16/1 are 144 bets but again followed blindly post a big loss of over 60 points so still best to stick with those priced 16/1 or shorter but again be selective
4 wins from 50 bets isn’t a great return for two of the finest trainers in the country, and the number of places they have achieved isn’t great either. Their handicap chasers perform far below what the market expects and their runners should be treated with a high degree of caution.
In general those near the top of the weights have struggled. Those carrying 11-10 or more in handicap chases are…
This may be because the ground is usually testing and/or the races are generally competitive being run at a true pace. This makes it harder to carry a big weight to victory. so it’s something to keep an eye on.
There is nothing significant with fitness and ‘days since last run’ as winners have come from all rest patterns.
Handicap Hurdles (winners SP of 16/1 or under)
Since 2010 only three trainers have managed to win more than one handicap hurdle at this meeting
‘Could do better’ Trainers
There are no trainers with what you would call a poor record here. There are no winless trainers that have had more than five runners.
Of mild interest…
Those carrying 11-11 or more are 0/9 and 2 places.
Those carrying 10-6 or less: 1/28 and 8 places.
The main message here is not to be put off a horse that is returning after a break. Modern training methods and facilities ensure that if a trainer wants a horse to be fit enough to be competitive, they usually can.
Paul Nicholls is responsible for three of those winners, with Alan King, Nicky Henderson and Evan Williams contributing one winner each.
From my last post you will know that I prefer playing in the handicaps … novice/maiden hurdles and chases do not really interest me from a betting perspective. But, I know many of you may wish to play in them so here are some pointers…
Novice/Maiden Hurdles and Chases (excludes the Juvenile hurdle + National Hunt Flat race)
Let’s start with the odds again…
Firstly no winner priced 12/1 or bigger from 40 runs generating a loss of over 40 pints to level stakes so avoid. Even those priced 7/1 – 11/1 have tended to struggle with just 2 wins and 10 places from 29 runs and a loss of 8 points to level stakes. So clearly it is best to focus on the top of the market in these races, with those priced 13/2 or less returning stats of…
‘Could do Better Trainers’
There are no trainers that have a particularly poor record with their runners in these races when they are fancied to go well. Unsurprisingly it is the big yards, with the best horses, that have dominated those races where raw ability counts for an awful lot.
Looking at the graded non-handicaps…
Again, best to focus on those near the top of the market, with those priced over 10/1 being 0 wins and 3 places with a whopping loss of 30 points to level stakes.
Trainers to Note (10/1 or shorter)
Paul Nicholls may struggle with his handicappers but it's a completely different ball game in Graded non-handicaps…
Finally of some interest is Thursday's National Hunt Flat Race where Harry Fry is a perfect 2/2 with his runners to date and has Royalzaro running for him. In the Juvenile Hurdle, trainers to watch include:
Hopefully you find some of these stats useful and they may help guide you to finding a few value bets (or avoid some losing ones!). In general it looks best to focus on those horses that are relatively well fancied in the market and are younger, more progressive horses.
If you do enjoy these and are looking for something a little more comprehensive then download Josh's free report which you can get by clicking here.