Royal ascot 2018

Introduction

For us it's the toughest week of the season... with every race qualifying we stake the equivalent of a month's points in one week, so it can be very tough if we don't get a few results. Fortunately, we got off to a great start but had little luck on the following 4 days but with a combination of judicious staking and a couple of good priced places managed to come out of the festival almost 14 points up which is a satisfactory result by anyone's standards.

Day 1

Day one didn't start according to plan, we really fancied Benbatl who was backed into favouritism but he flopped, as did Lady Aurelia who surprisingly just couldn't seem to go the early pace. But winners in the last 2 handicaps both at 12/1 meant we came out of the first day 24 points to the good.

Ascot Day 1

Day 2

Day 2 looked much harder and we took a more cautious approach with only 3 selections, but Hydrangea was our biggest bet of the meeting. She just didn't fire on the day which is strange for such a well supported Aiden O'Brien runner but he had several reverses and it was a poor week by his very high standards. Society Power could have got us out of trouble but was given a lot to do and we had to settle for a place. 4 points down on the day but still well ahead...

Ascot Day 2

Day 3

Yet again we were knocking on the door with 2 seconds from 4 selections. Vazirabad looked all over the winner two furlongs out and I am convinced if we had had Frankie on board (or several others I could name) that he would have won. Curiosity ran a brave race to finish 2nd to Ostilio but was never going to catch the winner, and to rub salt in Key Victory was a short head out of the money. So less than a point down on the day but it could have been oh so different!

Ascot Day 3

Day 4

The hard luck story on day 3 was Sands of Mali who was drawn on the stands side and all the pace was on the far side. But we are not one to make excuses and these things even themselves out over time. Crowned Eagle finished a respectable 6th but the bookies only paid on the first 5 and Fairyland looked the likely winner a furlong out but just faded in the last 50 yards to be less than a length behind the winner.

Ascot Day 4

Day 5 review

Day 5 was definitely the most disappointing from our point of view as we went into it with 6 fairly confident selections but only one managed to trouble the judge (and 3 ran no sort of race). Major Jumbo ran a fine 3rd in the Wokingham to finish 3rd at 25/1, he was slightly hampered a furlong out and had to be switched close home. Beaten less than a length he would have undoubtedly been closer with a clear run but I thought the winner Bacchus won a bit cosily.

Ascot Day5

Summary

As our long-standing members already know and we hope our many new members learned, it is a war, not a battle. We have had situations were a good priced winner at the end of the meeting (Dandy Boy at 69/1 immediately springs to mind!) changes the whole complexion, this time we only painfully bled away half our profit from day one.

But we never change our approach in a reaction to our results, in our experience chasing losses or protecting profits leads to emotional judgements and there is no place for emotion in a form-based analytical tipping service... one of the reasons we are so consistent. Anway we hope that you enjoyed the week, there was some fabulous racing and plenty of drama, and if you were disciplined and followed our advice you should have made a good few quid!

Best wishes,
The Cleeve team

5 Comments

  1. Paul Kendall on July 2, 2018 at 5:32 pm

    Hi Guys,

    I was very happy with the results, especially as I backed Lagostovegas twice by mistake as you know. For me though your service is about the expert analysis that you provide along with the actual advice.So thank you very much guys.

    All the best,

    Paul

    ps the running P+L in those boxes abovemakes no sense to me whatsoever, but maybe I just don’t get it!

    • Nick McKenna on July 2, 2018 at 5:40 pm

      Hi Paul,
      The running P&L is the total that is carried from the first selection of the meeting to the last, adjusted for staked points with returns added for wins or ew places and subtractions for losses. The final total is the net result for the whole meeting…

      • Paul Kendall on July 2, 2018 at 5:46 pm

        AH YES!!!!

        See I knew it was me! You’ve got the race times in reverse order.

        Thank you for your very prompt response, Nick

      • rbn on July 2, 2018 at 6:48 pm

        The confusion arises because for some reason you list the selections and the races in the opposite of chronological order, upside down, with the last first and the first last. The cumulative P/L goes from the bottom up.

        I do not agree some calculations (for example, I think Society Power was a better result than shown, a profit of
        2 pts not 1); sometimes I think we were urged to back for 6 places which meant one fifth and not one quarter the odds for a place; once (Sands of Mali) or perhaps twice (Major Jumbo? I got 25/1) the BOG SP was better than the advised price; a fun week, thank you for the service.

        • tomwalls33 on July 4, 2018 at 3:27 pm

          I agree also with Society Power being a return of 2pts and not 1, and also all the ew selections (bar Society Power, who was advised to be bet specifically with Bet365 ew at 1/4 odds) should all be calculated at 1/5 odds, as all advised bookmakers at the time were offering 1/5 odds. I’ve kept running total of advised prices, as well as what I obtained myself, and I reckon advised returns are +10.5pts, not almost 14

          Small difference, but can make the difference between profit and not over time 🙂

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