Well, Pinatubo's bubble got well and truly burst by Kameko and Wichita and it was a really taking performance by the winner who showed guts and class to come through a narrow gap to win. He now sits at the top of the Derby betting at 4/1 biggest. It's now time to take dead aim at the 1000 Guineas.

I will be focusing again on 10-year trends, key statistics and the leading contenders to try and set out the 'shape' of the race for you. I won’t be adding in the key trial race section for this analysis based on the fact it hasn’t resulted in anything positive that is worth mentioning compared to the 2000 Guineas trials that has worked out very well in recent times for the colts classic and kicked in again with Kameko winner of the Vertem Futurity.

The Race

The 1000 Guineas is the second Classic of the season and is a Group 1 race for three-year-old fillies only. It is run on the Rowley Mile over 1m on the straight course. While the winners of this race normally go on to run well in the same year’s Epsom Oaks - the only horse to have won both in the same season of the last ten years was Minding back in 2016.

Qipco 1000 Guineas Past Ten Winners

Qipco 2000 Guineas Stats & Facts

  • Aidan O’Brien has trained five winners in total
  • Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 3 times
  • Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner 3 times
  • Billesdon Brook in 2018 at 66/1 was the biggest winning price.
  • 2009 winner Ghanaati currently holds the quickest winning time at 1:34:22.

2020 Key 2000 Guineas Trends

  • 9/10 - Had run in a Group race before
  • 9/10 - Had won at least twice
  • 9/10 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
  • 8/10 - Had an official rating of 106+
  • 8/10 - Won at 6/1 or bigger
  • 8/10 - Finished in top 2 last time out
  • 7/10 - Placed favourites
  • 7/10 - Had won a Group race previously
  • 7/10 - Drawn in stall 8 or lower
  • 4/10 - Won their previous race

Favourites finishing order: 2010-2019

1, 7, 3, 9, 17, 2, 1, 2, 3, 3

Leading contenders and outsiders for the 1000 Guineas

History indicates that trying to find the winner of the opening fillies’ Classic is much tougher than in the colts race. Only two favourites have obliged in the last 10 years but they have placed 7 times. Two winners; Homecoming Queen and Billesdon Brook returned odds of 25/1, 66/1 respectively. That being said, Quadrilateral is the favourite for the 2020 renewal and looks to have a very strong chance. she comes here with an unblemished record to her name.

Quadrilateral: 5/2F

Trainer: Roger Charlton

Form: 111

Currently the clear market leader she bids to provide Roger Charlton with a first Classic success since he won the Derby with Quest For Fame in 1990. The daughter of the mighty Frankel remained unbeaten as a two-year-old when recording a battle-hardened success in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile over course and distance. If she is near that form again then she is clearly the one to beat. Having said that I do have a slight issue with her which is whether she will have the pace to hold her position as the race is going to be run at a good gallop with plenty of confirmed front-runners in the line-up... horses trying to come from off the pace have struggled at this meeting so far.

Looking through all three of her victories to date, Quadrilateral has looked a little outpaced each time the tempo has picked up before doing all her best work towards the backend of her races. She has looked so strong at the finish that I contemplated whether the filly will be much better over further, but regardless of my opinion, at least we know she will stay and be finishing stronger than most and she has yet to taste defeat. If she does win she will be red hot favourite for next month's Epsom Oaks.

Raffle Prize: 12/1

Trainer: Mark Johnston

Form: 2211122

This is a filly I followed throughout the whole of last season. She proved herself to be one of the best of her sex finishing no worse than second in all her races. If she repeats that form again here then she should be a lot shorter in the market than she currently is. The reason she is currently around 12/1 is possibly down to the fact she has yet to race beyond seven furlongs and her furious all-round speed makes her vulnerable to stay the one-mile trip.

She won the Queen Mary over five furlongs before breaking the track record at Newmarket and in her final two performances she ran really well with two creditable second places in two hot Group 1 races over six furlongs. On the basis of her overall form, she does look more of a speed horse rather than a stayer. Raffle Prize will have the presence of Mickael Barzelona in the saddle so it is hard to knock Mark Johnston’s filly despite her remaining unproven over the distance.

Love: 5/1

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien

Form: 211513

The Aidan O’Brien trained filly Love leads the yard's intended runners as the current second favourite. She was beaten fair and square by Quadrilateral last time out but with the stable's record she is sure to have her supporters again and there is a good chance she has improved from two to three. Before her defeat at Newmarket last time, the daughter of the high-class Galileo looked a filly out of the top draw when capturing the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes at the Curragh. The ground is currently good to firm which is will be perfect for her having shown her best form on that type of going and the presence of Ryan Moore in the saddle will only enhance her chance.

Millisle: 6/1

Trainer: Jessie Harrington

Form: 12121

Another Irish raider that comes into the race at the top of her game is the Jessica Harrington trained Millisle who will be on many people’s shortlist courtesy of her brilliant success in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes and, even though she is yet to try a trip beyond six furlongs, one can assume she will show further progression here because the way she was finishing her races off last season suggests she will stay the trip. Oisin Murphy goes for a Classic double and will ride full of confidence.

Based on Jessica Harrington’s recent comments on her fillies chance and also her breeding, connections are confident she will be fine over a mile and she seems to be getting better and better with racing. Another positive point to note down is the fact that champion jockey Oisin Murphy replaces regular rider Shane Foley who can’t travel over unfortunately and there are several reasons to believe Millisle has a good chance of winning this which will be completely gutting for him.

Cloak Of Spirits: 14/1

Trainer: Richard Hannon

Form: 163

Cloak Of Spirits made a bright impression on debut when comfortably winning at Ascot but then returned a disappointing favourite when only managing sixth in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes. However, she came back to form when a close-up third in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes last time out. There is a chance she will improve again in the 1000 Guineas but her only flop to date was over one mile and that leaves her with questions to answer. Andrea Atzeni gets the leg up and connections know what it takes to succeed in this race so she could go well at a nice price.

I hope I may have managed to point you at least in the direction of a potential winner or even two. Take care and I wish you all the very best of luck in what promises to be an exceptional weekend of racing in the UK.

see the latest 1,000  Guineas odds here

Stay safe,
Steven

 

The team at Cleeve

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