Meet John… Cleeve Racing’s new Head Tipster – part 2

Hi there,

in the second of this two-parter John gives you some background on his betting 'style' from the perspective of selection strategy, staking and betting banks. This gives you an insight into the bets that I recommend to members.

I generally prefer to stake 1 point to win or 0.5 points each way and if there are a few more question marks in my mind my min stake is 0.5 points win. Alternatively, if I am really confident of my selection my maximum bet is 2 points win or 1 point each way. My experience tells me that win betting tends to be more profitable and I will usually average around 70% win bets in my selections.

I find that having more win bets leads to shorter losing runs which is important from a psychological perspective if you back 25 winners at 4/1 from a 100 bets you’ll make 25 points profit, that’s less than backing three 50/1 winners but if they came towards the end of the run, look yourself in the mirror and ask… could you honestly wait through 80 odd losers?

I recommend a starting bank of 100 points, although looking through my records my longest losing run in the last 5 years (3000+ bets) was 26 bets and 19 points. So, it’s pretty much up to you how much risk you like to factor into your betting.

I prefer to identify races where there is one horse with plenty of conditions in their favour when others in the field have conditions against them, and that tends to happen more often in lower grade handicaps. I look for patterns in the horses form that point to a big run that maybe something simple like needing a left- or right-handed track, maybe they perform best with a short rest period or it may be a few different factors that add up together. This analysis takes time and an understanding of what is required to win the race in question. I don’t have a magic wand or a crystal ball, it’s just me, my years of experience, the form book and lots of hard work!

I fully realise that Cleeve has been a top brand in the market and has developed a style that longer-term members have become used to. I tried to adapt my own style to this but struggled to be quite honest. But the guys that pull the strings realised that you don’t buy a dog and bark yourself… my performance they monitored before taking me on board, was based on me being able to do my own thing, and although they were loathe to change the Cleeve style, they recognised that regular winners have to be more important than the class of race you bet in, and profits have to be the most important priority.
I look forward to working hard with the team to ensure we generate a consistent profit for Cleeve members in the future.”

Wishing everyone all the best for the future
John

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