Glorious Goodwood – The big betting races

Hello there,

Goodwood is now less than a week away and we take an antepost look ahead to six of the biggest betting races of the week and at what connections have to say about the chances of some of the main contenders...

Lumiere – Trainer Mark Johnston: “Seeing her come back to form last time was the most important race of the season as far as we were concerned. It's such a relief because we thought she was good going into the Guineas, but then you start to doubt yourself. She showed all the attributes we'd seen in her as a two-year-old in that race so we have high hopes for her.” current best price - 5/1

Home of the Brave - Trainer Hugo Palmer: “He was going to be supplemented for the July Cup, but he had a tiny nick on the outside of a hind joint. He recovered with antibiotics, but they can slightly flatten a horse at times and so we made the decision that the July Cup would be too soon for him. He will now go to Goodwood and while he was entered for the Sussex, he is the favourite for the Lennox Stakes and that is definitely the preferred route.” current best price - 4/1

Markaz – Trainer Owen Burrows: “The plan is that Markaz will run in the Lennox Stakes on Tuesday. He is in good form and I have been pleased with him since he won the Chipchase Stakes.” current best price - 14/1

Key Race Trends:
4 of the last 5 winners have all been well fancied in the betting at 5/2 or shorter.
3 of the last 7 winners have been trained by the Hannon yard.

Latest Betting:
Home Of The Brave - 4/1
Dutch Connection - 4/1
Lumiere - 5/1
Toormore - 8/1
Birchwood - 10/1

The Ghurka – Trainer Aiden O'Brien: “The Ghurka seems to be in good form since he ran in the Eclipse. Obviously, he hasn't done much since but he seems fine. I think he travelled well at Sandown, like he always has done, although the ground was probably softer than ideal. Even though he was beaten we thought he ran a very good race. He has always been a very hardy horse at home and has taken his races very well. Obviously, the Sussex Stakes will be another test for him. We are very with him so far. You can talk about what happened in the St James' Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, but you can't say for certain that if circumstances had been in our favour the result would have been different.” current best price 9/4

Galileo Gold – Trainer Hugo Palmer: “Going to the Sussex Stakes was always the plan, on a track where he's already raced on and won at before. That's one tick in his favour and again it's going to be a great race. I'm not saying for sure he's going to win it, but I'm very confident he will run a big race if luck is on our side.” current best price 2/1

Awtaad – Trainer Kevin Prendergast: “He will definitely run in the Sussex. He's in great form and will be competitive in the race for sure, whatever beats him will win it.” current best price 8/1

Key Race Trends:
6 of the last 8 winners were aged three years old.
Favourites have a great record in the race with the last 8 favourites all winning the race.

Latest Betting:
Galileo Gold - 15/8
The Gurkha - 9/4
Awtaad - 8/1
Ribchester - 8/1
Lightning Spear - 10/1

Sword Fighter – Trainer Aiden O'Brien: “Sword Fighter is our main contender for the race. He has come out of his win at the Curragh very well and if the ground is on the Good or Good to firm side, Colm O'Donoghue is confident he will handle it.” current best price - 10/1

Quest for More – Trainer Roger Charlton: “Quest for More is in good heart, but didn't get his ground at York last time. We left him in because he needed the run before his intended target in the Goodwood Cup. Last year he was narrowly beaten by Big Orange who advertised his well being at Newmarket recently.” current best price - 8/1

Big Orange – Trainer Michael Bell: “The original plan was to go for the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, but we had to swerve it because of the soft ground. He just loves fast, summer ground and we've basically had to wait all year for it. He is older and stronger now and that was probably a career best last time. He beat some very good horses pretty easily, so the plan now is to head for the Goodwood Cup.” current best price - 5/1

Key Race Trends:
8 of the last 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that year.
9 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top three in a group 1 race.

Latest Betting:
Big Orange - 5/1
Flying Officer - 7/1
Quest Of More - 8/1
Pallasator - 8/1
Curbyourenthusiasm - 8/1

Franklin D – Trainer Michael Bell: “At last the stable is back in good form again after a frustrating spell of seconds and thirds, but now they are getting their noses in front. It was a very good performance from him last time out and we now head for the Betfred Mile at Goodwood. This horse has been running well for while and works well at home, so I hope he can win again.” current best price - 8/1

Instant Attraction – Trainer Jedd O'Keeffe: “He ran very well at Royal Ascot, it is just ultra-competitive down there. He has ran a few crackers this season so there is no reason why he can't run well again and he has worked well at home since.” current best price - 20/1

Belgian Bill – Trainer George Baker: “He will be going back to Goodwood for the Betfred Mile all being well and I was delighted with his run at York on July 9th. I think he probably didn't quite get home over a mile and two and a half furlongs, so the drop back to a mile at Goodwood will be right up his street. He would have been very close to winning the John Smith Cup if it had been run over a mile. He goes there in great form. The draw is more crucial at Goodwood than some places, but hopefully we will get a nice low figure draw for a horse in great form. It should be an exciting day. ” current best price - 20/1

Key Race Trends:

10 of the last 10 winners were aged between 3 and 5 years old.
9 of the last 10 winners carried a handicap mark between 95 and 106.
8 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 8 or lower.

Latest Betting:
Franklin D - 8/1
Mutamakkin - 16/1
White Lake - 16/1
Donncha - 16/1
Haalick - 16/1

Golden Steps – Trainer Marco Botti: “The Steward's Cup is the plan providing all goes well between now and then. He handled Goodwood very well when winning the consolation race last year. He is more relaxed compared to last year and that is why he is staying further. I think six or seven furlongs is fine for him, especially when he gets a strong pace.” current best price - 14/1

Orion's Bow – Trainer Dandy Nicholls: “He Just keeps pulling them apart every time he runs. We have worked the oracle on him and he's improved so much. He's a big horse so doesn't want to hang back. I think he could be a group horse in the making.” current best price - 7/1

Brando –Trainer Kevin Ryan: “We clearly have a progressive sprinter on our hands here. He travelled so well on the soft ground, but is equally effective on a faster surface and it doesn't take a great leap of imagination to see him being in contention.” current best price - 14/1

Key Race Trends:
8 of the last 10 winners were aged four or five years old.
9 of the last 10 winners had a handicap mark between 95 and 104
10 of the last 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better last time out.

Latest Betting:
Orions Bow - 7/1
Dancing Star - 10/1
Toofi - 10/1
Taneen - 14/1
Golden Steps - 14/1

Profitable – Trainer Clive Cox: “He's in great form, but has a 5lb penalty to carry which won’t make things any easier. We've covered the entry though because it is a handsome prize for a Group Two.” current best price - 6/1

Easton Angel – Trainer Michael Dods: “She is a filly who improves when her confidence is high. We felt her confidence was dented a bit after Ascot last year after a hard race. This year it was important to get her back on track and that's what we have done at York and Sandown. She has come out of both races extremely well. Taking on your elders is a slight concern, but she has got to do it at some stage and gets all the allowances... she is very quick.” current best price - 8/1

Key Race Trends:
5 of the last 6 winners were aged five or older.
5 of the last 7 winners were rated between 107 to 116. (One of which was from Australia and had no BHA rating)

Latest Betting:
Profitable - 6/1
Goldream - 15/2
Easton Angel - 8/1
Marsha - 8/1
Muthmir - 8/1

Best wishes,

The Cleeve Team