Cleeve ratings dutching results

Dutching results header

Introduction

Following on from our recent post about our Class 2+ ratings results, we have had a few emails from members asking if we had results from dutching the top 3 rated in each race as well.
Dutching is the name for the betting technique of backing more than one outcome in the same race for either a fixed return or using a fixed stake spread across multiple selections.

We have now completed an analysis from June onwards (no mean feat!!), and in the table below we go through the results achieved so far...

Firstly, let's look at how we have actually compiled the results.

  • All races have been dutched to a stake of £20 spread across the 3 top-rated horses.
  • All calculations have been made using the Oddschecker.com dutching calculator.
  • All results are calculated to BSP, they don't include any commission.
  • Every race has been calculated regardless of the number of top-rated runners published (taking into account non-runners).
  • All races with odds-on favourites have been included, even though you probably wouldn't dutch these types of races as the risk-reward is too low.

We believe that with further analysis you could apply filters to which races to dutch and which ones you would not, which would give you better results than the ones beow which have been achieved across the board.

Results from June 1st to date.

The table below contains all the results by month from the 1st of June to the 30th of November. Results are calculated to a dutched £20 stake...

Cleewe ratings Dutching results

As you can see dutching every single race regardless of type or number of rated horses shows pretty consistent results apart from August. We went back and looked at the August results to see what went wrong.

What we found was that over 70% of the losses came from the one meeting - the York Ebor meeting. Looking at the results for this meeting there were:-

  • 38 rated races in total.
  • the ratings had 11 winning races.
  • 9 races (24%) were 2yo races - these are particularly difficult to rate due to unexposed and improving horses with a lack of form in the book.
  • the ratings had a strike rate of 29%.
  • the ratings had 8 second-placed horses over the meeting (21%).

With the ratings having "seconditus" this dragged down the whole meeting's overall strike rate and profitability. The meeting as a whole was very difficult with a lot of 2yo races and a whole raft of big priced winners that were hard to spot. If we had had just a few of the 2nds going in instead, we would have turned a profit on the meeting and the whole month into a profitable one.

Conclusions

The bald figures speak for themselves with a consistent strike rate and returns (apart from August as discussed above)

This shows that there is plenty of scope for users of the ratings to use their own judgement to focus on particular races such as:-

  • Avoiding races with odds on favourites where the risk-reward is too low
  • Avoiding races with limited form data such as 2-y-o races

As we said in the Cleeve Ratings results post the ratings are there to be used as a tool to narrow down the field and save time on form analysis. Dutching the top-rated is just another way of utilising the ratings. The results posted here are just another example of the power of the ratings.

Members have emailed us with their thoughts on how to make serious profits by only focusing on certain race types and following certain betting strategies.