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Cleeve Racing tips 2019 – 12 month wrap up

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2019 Stats

Total Bets

Winners

Places

Win & Place SR

384

58

63

31.5%

2019 Yearly P&L to £20 stakes

+£1,920.00

The Last 12 Months - An Overview

 

Hi everyone,
I know we missed a weekly review over the Christmas period so I hope you can forgive us for that.

In this review of 2019, we wanted to give a wrap up of the whole year. We feel it's important to look at how our service and methodology works over the longer term.

It is natural for all of us to fall guilty of short-termism or to be swayed by recency bias but when it comes to betting profitability it can be very costly to take a short-term view.

We are close to the end of a poor run which has been very difficult for relatively new members to take, but if you take the long view and treat Cleeve more like a pure investment strategy rather than a gambling cost you will see that you will make money in the long term.

2019 wrap up...

Over the year from January to December we made an overall profit of 96 points which is not too shabby but a little shy of our internal target of 100-120 points per year. Betting to £20 a point stakes, members who have been with us for the whole year will have made £1,920 profit and even when you take our most expensive membership option (£48 per month inc. VAT) it still leaves a profit of £1344. Members on a discounted annual membership made £1,525

Now, these are the assumptions we have had to make:-

  1. Results and profits are based on advised prices. Odds were available with at least two major bookmakers when the tip was posted. We understand that not everyone has access to all bookmakers odds due to restrictions or just not having an account.
  2. Sometimes the advised price contracts but sometimes it drifts so it probably evens itself out over the year.
  3. We stopped using BOG mid-way through the year when restrictions started being made by the major bookmakers.

To help to try and alleviate some of these issues we have started recording all results to BSP and will continue to do so over the coming months with a view to advising that members bet at BSP which is available to all – watch this space.

2019 results summary

As you can see from the summary table below we have had:-

8 winning months
4 losing months

As you can see we were flying through to September but had 3 losing months in a row after that. This highlights the critical importance of betting bank management and patience. Those 3 losing months equated to 46+points loss – ouch! But if you had managed your bank then you will still have made a healthy profit at year-end.

In the last two columns, we calculated profits to a simple 1 point staking plan and a 1% stake of the previous months points balance.

Using the standard 1 point level stakes system you would have made an ROI (return on investment) of just over 13% which stacks up very favourably against any investment out there.

Now as I said earlier this is no consolation to a member who joined at the end of September but losing runs will always happen and we have proved season after season, and year after year that historically we have always bounced back.

Our selection methodology is what you would call 'contrarian' as we only have a bet when we feel there is significant value, this means we tend to have selections at longer odds (ave price in 2019 has been approx 10/1).

Logically this can result in us experiencing longer losing runs than a service that focuses on favourites.  but it's all about long-term profits. Admittedly this won’t suit everyone from a psychological point of view, and it takes a lot of discipline and belief to manage the emotional swings and roundabouts.

Highlights

Cheltenham is undoubtedly the hardest meeting of the year to make a profit and we always hold our breaths going into it as we will stake in 4 days what we would normally stake in a month!

The 2019 Festival was profitable but not quite up to our usual standards but we had several selections placed at big prices from 12/1 to 25/1 and it only takes one of these to come in and the profits for the meeting would have doubled. We finished the jumps season on just over 60 points profit and we will happily take that every season.

On the Flat we again made decent profits of just over 60 points. Goodwood (which is another meeting that is notoriously difficult to pick winners) was particularly good especially with Deirdre coming in at a massive price (personally I was sat by the pool in Majorca watching the race on my phone and it paid for the family holiday).

This selection highlights the contrarian nature of our methodology. Deirdre was discounted by the market as all the form was from Japan and she was massively overpriced and in our view a tremendous value bet.

Lowlights

The last 3 months have been very difficult for us as a service. We have stuck to our methodology, but a lot of selections have flattered to deceive, looking to be going best of all two out then just not finishing off at the business end. This has resulted in a bank drawdown of over 40 points, November was especially painful with nearly 26 points going back in the bookie's satchels.

The transition between the Flat and the Jumps is always a difficult time of the season with Flat horses going over the top at the end of the season and not knowing exactly how fit or not Jumps horses having their first runs are. We may look to have a short break in between seasons this year to alleviate this problem.

It's doubly hard for us as service as we feel a huge responsibility to our members, plus we are losing money ourselves so feel your pocket pain too.

Whilst I am on that subject here are some pointers for relatively new members (I apologise it sounds like I am teaching you to suck eggs)...

1. Set a staking level to something that you are totally comfortable with be it £5 or £50 a point.
2. Put aside a betting bank that supports your staking strategy - we advise 60-100 points depending on how risk-averse you are.
3. Only increase your stakes when your bank has grown to a level that warrants the increase
4. Try to take the emotion out of your betting. You need to be able to cope with the inevitable losing runs. If it's causing you to stress then stop!!
5. Try hard to keep records of your bets – even a weekly P&L will help to give you some degree of clarity on the bigger picture.
6. Stop mug punting – Bookmakers love a mug punter and to be honest we've all been there at one time or another.
7. Don't skip from service to service. It could be the worst time to join during a hot streak as that losing run is inevitably coming.

We see this all the time where people join but experience a losing run and quickly cancel their membership, then jump to another service only to go through the same and think all tipping services are rubbish. We recommend that you do your research and commit to the service of your choice for at least a season and even better a year.

In Summary

2019 has been another profitable year, our 11th in a row... but the last 3 months have been well below average but we hope we have managed to stop the rot with December being a very small loss.

We hope you have enjoyed the ride over the last 12 months and that you have made a profit following our advice. Stick to backing what we tell you with the stakes we tell you and you won't go wrong in the long run.

And be sure that the whole team will be striving harder to make you an even bigger profit and get more all-around pleasure from the sport we love in 2020.

Good luck
The team at Cleeve

Future enhancements

As you will be aware we have been developing 2 new added-value services for members. The ante-post service and the Eyecatchers service.
We have had a few emails asking us about these services so below is what they are and the methodologies behind these. We will be developing these further this year. Please note that they will be treated as separate services to the main member's selections.

Antepost service - the methodology behind this is that we will be looking for horses in the midweek betting markets who have just the one entry for races at the weekend and look like they will definitely be running in that race. i.e. we have an ante-post selection on a horse at say 12/1 in the midweek markets when there are 17 runners at the 5-day stage and bookmakers are offer 4 places. Then come race day there are just 8 runners and the horse is priced 5/1 with just 3 places, therefore, we have locked in some serious value for that horse as we are getting 4 places at 12/1 for a 5/1 shot.

Eyecatchers service - the methodology behind this is we will be putting up horses that we feel will improve on their next run due mitigating factors such as being unlucky in running, running on the wrong ground or at the wrong distance, running in the wrong Class or having their first run. We will be advising selections only if their ideal conditions are met and also if their price looks to be of value.

Just a word about these new services. They are still in development and will be reported on separately from the main member's selections. Also, they are compiled by different members of the team and they will sometime clash with the main members selections and like all tipsters they may have a difference of opinion.

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